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Next week there are very important upcoming economic events as major Central Banks from around the world have scheduled interest rate decisions and upgrade their market policy, and on top of that, Friday we have the NFP figures which after last poor figure has become an important risk event as we know that tapering is "data depending" and any soft number may be perceived as a threat to the reduction of the bond buying programe.
Tuesday we have RBA interest rate decision and market expectation is to keep rates on hold as they are already at historic low point. Although RBA has also kept the door open for another round of interest rate cut if the economic sentiment is predominantly negative, so RBA has some room to move if it wants to cut its benchmark interest rate. But this is unlikely to happen as they before to cut rates again they can keep pressing the aussie with just verbal intervention.
Thursday we have both BOE and ECB rate decision which should bring a lot of volatility to the market. When it comes to raise in interest rates BOE appears to be more hawkish than any other Central Bank as the forward guidance target for the unemployment figures are forecast to be reached in early 2015. It's all about CB's forward guidance here and what message will send to the market.
On the other hand ECB seems to be more dovish than any other Central Bank. There is a big challenge to tame down high unemployment figures and deflationary risk pressure.
After huge miss in the latest NFP figures market expectation are for a bounce back, which can translate in positive sentiment for the US dollar. Also the unemployment rate is expected to drop from 6.7% to 6.6% which is in line with Fed's forward guidance.
It will be an interesting week for sure and be prepared for higher volatility.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21.
