There is no better way to start the new trading month contest but with such a big risk event like NFP figures.

For sure this is quite a big opportunity to make a quick buck, but we have to take in consideration the downside as well as if you're trading full size your account balance can be wiped out from the first day, if you're using limit orders you may not get a fill and if you're using market orders you can get quite a big slippage.

But no doubt even in this environment you can make money and can be a good way to gain a top spot from the first day.

Market expectation for today's reading is for another figure above 200K for 4th consecutive month. The consensus forecast expects an increase of 233K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.1 percent. Usually ADP figures which have been released Wednesday are a good indication for how the NFP figures may look. The consensus forecast for the ADP was 230k and the actual reading came lower than expected at 218k. In Figure 1 you can see the comparison between ADP vs NFP.

Figure 1. ADP vs NFP


Even though we may have a good figure I'm not expecting a "one way street move" more likely we will have a big whipsaw with the dollar and especially EUR/USD. First we may go down and than up as EUR/USD can be at risk for a squeeze higher if you take in consideration my EUR/USD "taper effect" which suggest a bounce towards 1.3500 big round number before resuming the downtrend. For more reference about EUR/USD "taper effect" check out my blog post here: EUR/USD Tapering Effect (part 2)

Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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