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The latest Dukascopy Community Forecast has just been released, and if you want to check it out, you can read it here: Community Forecast The first part of the interview you can check it out here: Community Forecast - InterviewIn your opinion, what are the most volatile and predictable pairs at the moment?
It’s hard to say there are some currency pairs more predictable than the others, but you can say some currency pairs are more harder to predict mainly because of reduced liquidity and/or his “personality”. Each currency pair has his own personality and have the tendency to exhibit particular patterns characteristic to his behavior. However due to recent years change in monetary policy from all major Central Banks I see the Fed and BOJ diverging from each other, thus making USD/JPY uptrend to continue in the years to come. Most likely Fedwill stop easing and will continue with a gradual taper of $10B/meeting and BOJ will engage in more QE. I also see a huge potential for a big GBP/USD upside movement in the following years. Fundamentally speaking, UK is set to grow faster than any other Western economy. This year the economic data where very strong and supportive for GBP. The UK's GDP has shown the fastest growth for three years and rose by 0.8% according to the last figures.
What performance do you expect from the Japanese Yen versus its major counterparts in the short and longer term?
As I’ve already said previously, I’m expecting the current weakness in Japanese Yen to continue in the years ahead because of this
divergence between FED and BOJ. However in the short term, because it has gone to fast in a very short time period, we can see it staying in a wide range and take a pause, but pressing to the upside. Only last year alone Japanese Yen has weakened 17%, taking a pause it’s healthy for the market in order to regain strength for the next big up leg in USD/JPY.
What advice would you give to those, who have just started FX trading?
My first advice for a novice trader is to invest real cash, track your trades and study your mistakes, that’s the only way you can get real education in this business . My number-one rule is that you should develop a strategy with a risk to reward ratio greater than 1:2, this way you make sure your winners are far bigger than your losses. Another mistake I’ve seen novice traders make is not cutting losses short, you have to be able to cut your losses short and let your winners run for long term survival in this business.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
