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Retails sales hit record levels this Black Friday, pointing to potential upside in this sector going into the end of November. Over $3.3 billion in sales came in for Black Friday this year, a 21% increase over last year and a record as well. This suggests that consumers are willing to fork out cash, although it should be noted that the average purchase per consumer was lower overall, but this was offset by a greater number of consumers buying on Friday. This picture aligns well with the overall trend of the market post-election, suggesting greater optimism for the US economy going forward. However, there are still significant hurdles that must be overcome.One such hurdle is OPEC’s planned meeting on November 30th in Vienna. The goal of this meeting is to reduce oil production worldwide so as to stabilize oil prices above $50 per barrel. So far, the markets have been somewhat cautious in its expectations. Crude oil prices closed down Friday, settling at $46.03 for WTI crude futures. Although crude was up overall from recent lows, it seems the market is waiting for stronger confirmation that a deal will be reached. As of right now, the biggest question is whether Iran will be willing to cut or at least curb production, given that the country is only recently back to producing oil again after previous sanctions were lifted. Additionally, Saudi Arabia canceled a proposed meeting with Russia last week, which may suggest that more tensions are surfacing prior to the meeting.With these things in mind, I would expect the markets to be quite a bit more active this week. Now that the holiday weekend is behind us (with the exception of Cyber Monday today), we can reasonably expect traders to become more active again. But if Black Friday is any indication of what to expect going forward, we can look forward to strong retail sales going into the end of the year, and this may help propel the markets higher going into the end of this year.
