This simple strategy trades the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe
with 10 lots and is the same as the December winning strategy with
the
difference being that a 10 shift is used instead of the 20 one and
additionally a 2-block volume filter is used. I
created the December strategy without looking at other strategies and
it was solely my invention. Recently, when going through some
strategies at the contest I have come across the shift function, but
I
have not encountered any strategies using the shift function on a
daily candle -
I noticed that a 1, 2, 3 shift was used on lower time frames
like 5 or 10 minute candles. Therefore, I believe that this 20 or 10
shift on a daily candle timeframe is unique and never used before.
Between December and now
I have enhanced the strategy with a specific time period to trade
(window),
but that was a mistake as can be seen on the monthly equity charts.
Keeping
this strategy simple as it is is
much more effective and so far this month it is doing well, with the
only problem
being that it is susceptible to drawdowns as it trades non-stop. So,
to describe it, providing that no position is opened, if the daily
candle 10 days back is green
then a buy is triggered with a 60 pip SL and 60 pip TP, consequently
if it is red then a sell is triggered
with
the same SL and TP. There are 2 filter volume blocks which will block
the trade if the volumes on daily candles going
back 20, 15 and 10 days are all equal. Version 2 has a 15 pip SL and
TP and also here the
lowering of the SL and TP from 60 to 15 pips has no impact on the
strategy (no hibernation) as during the same time period 4 trades
will
be opened instead of 1 due to the fact that the strategy trades
non-stop. The risk
to
reward ratio is a decent 1 : 1, so if
a trade goes bad it does not grind down into the equity chart. I
wanted this
strategy to trade the price bias from the past as it is well known
that price action from the past repeats. I have been researching this
idea for some time, working with cycles - for example 1, 2, 3, 4
weeks, 3 months, 6 months, 1 / 7 / 10 years etc. I have backtested
different
pairs with this strategy by constantly changing the shift and RRR,
and
came up with the U/J pair for a 10-day-back daily bias with a 1:1
RRR.
I spent some
time on getting the 60 and 15 pip SL / TP for U/J, it's almost
1/2% and 1/10%
for
this pair and works nicely (the sell to buy flip at the
11/08 low exactly to the pip, where the the flip was the actual low
was good). The shift 10 on a
daily candle in
this strategy is unique and never used before.