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arjaq predicted bullish impact of Consumer Confidence in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. Market open has shown USD weakness.
2. Trump causes utter terror across the market anytime he speaks of his plans recently.
3. Though still negtive, Consumer Confidence shows signs of stable improvements, getting closer to zero. Right now it is on the way to a new top.
4. Depreciated EUR and monetary policies should have helped the expectations. EUR price effects are already kicking in.

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arjaq predicted bearish impact of Consumer Price Index in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. MoM the read of German CPI tends to spike up, and then move lower or into negative. After two consecutive spikes up, the read is almost sure to fluctuate to the downside.
2. The market expectations are of a -0.6% change in the data. This will not be supportive for the EUR.
3. There was a bit of profit taking on EURUSD. The pair opened with a gap and started moving up. I believe that by the evening, movement to the downside on this pair will resume.

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arjaq predicted bullish impact of Pending Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. This data tends to scillate near zero above and below. Recently we had a negative -02.5% read, so the next read will likely be positive.
2. General market data from the US was still quite positive, therefore I consider market expectations of 1.1% rebounce on Pending Home Sales easily achievable.
3. USD regains strength today, there is a big demand rush on the USD.
4. All recent data suggest another US hike might be closer than the market has thought.

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arjaq predicted bearish impact of Unemployment Rate in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. I do not expect any suprise on this data. Japanese job market is exceptionally strong, unemployment steadily declines even with a low 3.1% level.
2. I neither expect any suprise on Househols spending data, released the same time.
3. Industrial Production data is released 20 minutes after this read - I am almost sure demand will be triggered due to expectation of another solid read on this data. This will be the actual mover, as Industrial production tends to have high impact on JPY.

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arjaq predicted bullish impact of BoJ Interest Rate Decision in the Fundamental analysis Contest

With the recent JPY strengthening. BoJ will be careful not to say or do anything supportive for JPY. Japan is doing better than before, yet monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan will surely be confirmed on the meeting. I expect no change in the rates and maybe some new QE measures.

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arjaq predicted bullish impact of Gross Domestic Product s.a. in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. Taking the recent amelioration across the Eurozone economy, I expect GDP to rise with a solid read.
2. Other EU zone data point to economy stregthening from the previous near-stagnation situation.
3. Starting from the end of 2013, EU GDP is growing in a steady pace with some acceleration spikes.
4. Market expectations of a 0.4% read are achievable. Even a lower read of 0.3% would still be supportive for EUR. I do not expect any read lower than 0.3%.

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arjaq predicted bearish impact of Consumer Price Index in the Fundamental analysis Contest

EU zone CPIseems to be rising in high (negative) correlation to the EURUSD pair, meaning basically it is delayed reflection of the pair downtrend recently. As EUR appreciated lately for some time already, we might see some stop to a further CPI acceleration. Market prediction of a 1.6% rise right after the 1.1% read might be a bit too optimistic. I expect EURUSD bearishness after this data. It seems likely to me, that the read will be again around 1.1%, as even though EUR appreciated, it was mainly USD weakness and EU zone economic conditions generally ameliorated a bit.

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arjaq predicted bearish impact of Industrial Product Price in the Fundamental analysis Contest

We still get no data pointing to the conditions in Canada getting better, even with oil price being well supported. Until I see some signs of the economy in Canada finally reflecting the effects of better commodity prices and monetary policies helping growth, I'll remain bearish on Canadian data reads. This data comes together with GDP and RMPI, both being slightly positive, yet it is still below Central Bank's target level.

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arjaq predicted bullish impact of Consumer Confidence in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence is a high impact market data.
2. Market expects a decrease to 113, considering latest data of 113.7 a new higher peak.
3. Generally from the lows near 20 in 2009, data is in a steady uptrend.
4. Even a read below 113 should be supportive as the continuation of an uptrend in CB Consumr Confidence will be confirmed.

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arjaq predicted bullish impact of Unemployment Rate in the Fundamental analysis Contest

1. NZD is making new highs vs USD but it is well fundamentally supported movement.
2. Lately unemployment data on New Zealand was totally suprising to the upside, but so were the other economic reads connected with NZD.
3. There is an expectation of unemployment to shrink to 4.8% this time. I believe it is achievable data, as experts expectations are pessimistic in comparison to actual job market reads from NZ for about a year.