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ijayakumar predicted bullish impact of Existing Home Sales (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Since April, Existing home sales is consistent by printing more than 5M all months. In line with that NAHB Housing Market Index is above 60 since July which again shows the appreciation in US housing sector and sales. Last week, Building Permits is increased from 4.1% to 11% which shows that Housing sectors are expected to become more promising in future as the demand becomes high.

In line with that current Percentage growth forecast 0.5% also better than previous -3.4%. I expect better data and bullish USD!

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ijayakumar predicted bullish impact of Trade Balance (MoM) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

NZ economy is doing good recently in line with the Chinese reviving economy which is still facing lot of queries. But NZ has done well by easing the Interest rate to 2.5% which will help in building the internal economy and trades. Coming back to trade balance, there are some good facts,

Terms of Trade - Exports Prices (Q3) 3.4% vs 3.0%
Manufacturing Sales Volume (Q3) 3.5% vs -0.2%

suggests that Trade balance will be better. In line with that monthly trade balance (-810M vs -963M) expectation is better than the previous. Hence I am betting NZ bullish!

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ijayakumar predicted bullish impact of GDP (QoQ) (Q3) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Great Britain fundamentals was not so good for last 2-3 months, as lot of mixed facts which is not showing a clear direction for economy and currency. Facts such as,

Manufacturing Production -0.4% vs -0.1%
Construction PMI 55.3 vs 58.2
Manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 53.6

shows bearish trend. However, facts such as,

CBI Industrial Trends Orders -7 vs -10
Unemployment 5.2% vs 5.3% (decreasing 0.1% for 3 months)
NIESR GDP estimate 0.6% vs 0.5%

shows some improvement. I am expecting a bullish move, as it is in oversold area!

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ijayakumar predicted bearish impact of Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Lot of US and CAD data will be released together which will make the prediction tougher. US Core Durable Goods Orders forecast is 0.1% (prev 0.5%) showing contraction and US Personal spending forecast is 0.3% (prev 0.1%) showing some betterment. But Durable good orders will be the important indicator for Market and hence USD sell off is probable. On the other hand, Canada Retail sales (0.4% vs -0.5%) and GDP 0.3% (-0.5%) shows improvement and hence CAD appreciation is expected. Hence I am voting for bearish USDCAD!

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ijayakumar predicted bullish impact of New Home Sales (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Housing sector in US is not so easily predictable, as Home sales of different category such New house, Pending House, Existing house sales used to print different values. But I would like to bet on greater than 500K, as last week facts such as,

Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) 11.0% vs -1.0%
Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov) 10.5% vs 6.6%
Housing Starts (Nov) 1.173M vs 1.135M

shown better value from new houses. I hope Michigan sentiments which will be released along with data also satisfies the forecast. Hence USD bullish!

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