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2nd Month of 2014 - Good luck Trading!

A15612P Postado 4 Fev  em #Learning #My Month Of Jan 2014 #Mistakes
Hello Traders,
Welcome to the 2nd month of 2014! We had a great Chinese New year holidays in Hong Kong until yesterday, and now we are officially opened.
Few learning I'd like to share with you all -
Mistakes:
Don't jump into the market, just that you have an itchy finger. I lost 200 pips each - CAD and AUD in the last week of last month... It was a devastating loss of 400 pips.. All my profits were wiped out and I had a terrible loss of half of my capital. All because I couldn't bite my itchy…
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 4 Mar

Thank you, for your tips! And I wish you good luck in your trading)

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VICTOR - THE POUND -- GAINED 200+ Pips...

A15612P Postado 23 Jan  em #AUD #GBP #JPY #Pips #Victor
Hello All,
Referring to my last few blogs and this one in particular - " JPY vs. GBP - Who will be the Victor?"; we clearly saw Pound stretching it's BULL run once again across all it's pairs. It was once again - GBP the Victor!
My Trades - I made a nice 200+ pips rally combining pairs like JPY and AUD.
I know i made a bit of a mistake by keeping tight stop loss before going to bed. And as a result i got stopped out by ONLY FEW pips (5 pips to be precise- ouch!**) and then the rally continued a…
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BOJ Vs. BOE _ Who will be the VICTOR today?

A15612P Postado 22 Jan  em #Boj Vs Boe
Hi All!
Big day today, from both side of the world. BOJ and BOE...
To start with - JPY has been one of the worst performer last year - BEAR. And in addition, there is likely hood of further QE measures by BOJ. Result - Yen will further weaken - perhaps it is a deliberate move, also says, passive suppression of currency rate by the BOJ. The recent pull back in all YEN crosses has made JPY even more tempting for SHORT positions,
On the contrary, there could be further continuation of JPY correctio…
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A15612P 22 Jan

Verdict --- GBP

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2014 WEEK 3 - POTENTIAL TRADES

A15612P Postado 20 Jan  em #GBP #CAD #JPY #UK #Minutes And Rate Decisions
Hello All.
I hope you had a great weekend and ready for some good profitable week ahead.
I feel that this week is going to be particularly heavy on POUND, YEN, AUSSI and CAD based pairs. Amongst, i think the most volatile pairs would be GBPJPY and CADJPY, provide they meet my expected FUNDAMENTAL criteria.
Criteria:
1) UK datas should be positive - I expect them to be... especially jobless claim / unemployment rate and BOE minutes on Wednesday. This will ensure the bull run of POUND, and help r…
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Convallium avatar
Convallium 4 Mar

I like your point of view!

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EURO/USD - TECHNICAL BREAK, READY FOR SHORT?

A15612P Postado 18 Jan  em #Trader's blog #Euro USD Technical Break
VERY TEMPTING TECHNICAL SET UP. WE HAD A MULTI-MONTH TREND LINE BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE IN THE END OF PAST WEEK. WILL THERE BE ANY FOLLOW THROUGH? I AM EXCITED TO FIND OUT THIS WEEK.
WE HAVE FULL OF EVENTS TAKING PLACE FROM THE EUR ZONE THIS COMING WEEK - EURO COMPOSITE PMI, EUROZONE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ETC.. ALSO, EQUALLY BUSY, IT'S GOING TO BE ON THE US SIDE TOO - DESPITE MONDAY IS OFF FOR US MARKET....
MIND YOU, AFTER UNEXPECTED RATE CUT IN LAST NOVEMBER BY ECB - MARKET EXPECTED SOME KIND OF F…
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FxMidaso avatar
FxMidaso 23 Jan

very good observation of the trend line. lets see how the week unfolds.

A15612P avatar
A15612P 23 Jan

Thanks... I am expecting EUR data to come negative today.. perhaps the downtrend willl get some followups..

FxMidaso avatar
FxMidaso 23 Jan

Thanks, maybe you can read my article on how i obtained 'Trader of the Year' in the article contest. Thanks for your support.
http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Journey-Towards-Trader-Of-The&action=read&id=1782#read-article

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RISK-ON RISK-OFF - how do currencies perform?

A15612P Postado 16 Jan  em #Trader's blog #Risk On Risk Off
Hello All,
Year 2014 started with pull back in markets. Markets which are seen as benchmark for risk trends, i.e. S&P 500, Nekkei 225, etc. However, this week S&P 500 didn't miss to get back to record new highs. This still shows that the level of complacency and confidence on the growing rally of these risky markets, are remarkable. Nonetheless, that does not mean that " Risk Off " theme has disappeared completely. In fact, i sense, it is growing bigger and bigger quietly in the back drop.
Now, …
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Convallium 4 Mar

very interesting table)

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A NICE RALLY OF 209 Points

A15612P Postado 15 Jan
Hello Everyone,
From the Fundamental side, I am LONG on UK Economy for the year 2014, as long as datas are coming positive – I do not think GBP needs WOW kind of data to have a nice rally. It was a top performer in the past year and it should retain it's title.
However, due to Moral Hazard - excessive stimulus, risk trending markets, i.e. indices are pretty much stretched – some of them are
way above pre-crisis highs. That’s pretty astonishing!
This high has something, hidden but growing - that …
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jezz avatar
jezz 22 Jan

Wow!

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CHICKEN OR EGG FIRST?

A15612P Postado 14 Jan  em #Price Action #Collective Perception #Indicators #Collective Interpretation #Collective Decision
Just a thought:
Hypothesis:
Market = Action of collective market participants.
Collective Market Participants = Collective psychology of Market Participants
Collective Psychology = Collective Perception, Interpretation & Decision.
[table] [tr]
STAGE A
Collective Perception
=
Collectively perceived Market Price Action + Use of Indicators + Ways they are used.

i.e. PRICE ACTION – RECEIVED MODE Or INCOMING?

STAGE B
Collective Interpretation
=
How the collective Perception perceived and collectively drawn understanding – of the Market, the Price, the indicator, etc.
i.e. Use of all indicators including Candle sticks and Chart patterns?
i.e. PRICE ACTION – OPEN MODE Or READING?
[td]
STAGE C
Collective Decision
=
Collective Actions drawn/as a result of STAGE A & B.
i.e. PRICE ACTION – SENT MODE…
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NFP NEGATIVE BUT EMPLOYMENT POSITIVE – USDJPY down, why?

A15612P Postado 13 Jan  em #JPY #USD #Nfp #Taper #Unemployment Rate
Big slip on the NFP figure but impressive improvement/reduction in the unemployment rate – was pretty surprising.
How did you interpret this?
USD bias was Bullish, but disappointing NFP crippled Dollar bullishness. And, JPY was fairly Bearish, however, improved
unemployment suddenly changed it’s bearish outlook into Bullish. This is despite the long term Bearish bias.
Why? I wondered.
Then I understood the connection – improved employment in US is a big push for US to not only be firmer on their…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 13 Jan

The fact that we had such a big miss in the nonfarm payrolls numbers was reason enough for the dollar to sell off. With the equity market is a win-win situation no matter what the numbers is because bad numbers translate into postponed further QE cut and if good NFP number also good for the market.

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What is the IDEAL TRADE SIZE??

A15612P Postado 10 Jan  em #Leverage #Trade Lot #Trade Size
Hello All!
Today, I am little confused. I wonder if you (much more experienced) guys can help me and many other like myself out there.
We all have been allotted 100 K capital? Now how much of this 100 K would be IDEAL to put on the trade at any given time?
My Answer is ALL - Because I guess I am looking at this capital as a portion given to me to play with - Completely. Where as if i was a retail trader, then it would be advisable to have only 2-4 % of my capital exposure.
What do you guys sa…
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DumbAsArock avatar
DumbAsArock 10 Jan

For real money 3% is about the maximum you should risk on any trade, assuming you're taking no more than three non-correlated trades at once. If you're taking only one trade 5% would be the maximum. Note, I said "Maximum". Conservatively risking 0.5% to 1% per trade is reasonable.

For the contest it depends what you're goal is. If your goal is to come in-the-money for the monthly contest then you've got to go all out. If you go broke, it means nothing. If you're trying to grab a yearly prize then you've got to be more conservative.

Personally, I use the contest account like a demo account,

jezz avatar
jezz 11 Jan

I agree. If on a demo, play like it's real. Many people make the mistake in playing on the demo and then burn the real account, just because of the habit to act irresponsibly.
5% yes, on competition you may double that portion if you're into going long run, but depends on the pairs you trade. EUR/USD play as much as you want, leave high volatility pairs alone

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