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Yay! It's a new week ????. Yet it isn't a new beginning ????! The momentum from Friday's dismal NFPs is likely to carry on in the early part of this week. Are we going to see a break of US dollar index range support or would it hold? Fundamentals say the bottom should hold. The US dollar is the probably the most reliable currency investment as we enter a period of global Central bank policy uncertainty from London to Frankfurt to Tokyo; Not forgetting the US elections (isn't it ironic that even …
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Patience
Often times I get into trades prematurely, end up being stopped out and then the trading plan plays out real-time. I guess I'm still trying not to lose out on the opportunity of a profit rather than sticking to a disciplined trading plan. Well, it's all good. We live and learn. NFP Friday is just a couple of hours away. Time to load the gun again!
Day 3
After successive losing days, my gamble on a GBP retracement paid off. Good to finally have a large one in the bank. Will keep watching GBP crosses for the next tradable trend wave. Also eyeing a couple of other setups. Meanwhile, the USD remains range bound; but it's a no go area pre-NFPs as the fundamentals (ADP vs ISM) are conflicting. Hopefully NFPs should be the tiebreaker. Happy trading folks.
Day 1
Hello everyone, Hd a mixed first trading day. Some winners and some losses. Nothing fatal however. Our fundamental outlook on the Pound was accurate but we await a technical entry point that would converge all GBP crosses, and filter out the strength from the US dollar which is still range bound pre-NFPs. Happy trading!
Delayed Post-Brexit Pound weakness
It would appear that the UK economy is holding its own inspite of the post-Brexit effect on equities and the Pound. Employment figures have been solid all through Q3 (averaging 170k) while retail sales and the Composite PMI have recovered following dips in the immediate post-Brexit weeks. However, until we see Q3 inflation indicators (core CPI and PPI) we can't fully gauge the direction of the economy. Manufacturing PMI might have been boosted by the weaker pound which happens to be a double -ed…
US dollar to strengthen on rate hike speculations
Hello everyone,
Welcome to the new month. It's likely to be a turbulent month in fx and equity markets . This is the final month before the US elections. The US dollar is at crossroads. On the one hand, economic indices point to a recovery and fuel the need for a rate hike. On the other hand, the upcoming elections create an air of uncertainty for speculators and all other central banks from Europe to Asia are actually easing rather than tightening monetary policy.
A look at the technicals revea…
Welcome to the new month. It's likely to be a turbulent month in fx and equity markets . This is the final month before the US elections. The US dollar is at crossroads. On the one hand, economic indices point to a recovery and fuel the need for a rate hike. On the other hand, the upcoming elections create an air of uncertainty for speculators and all other central banks from Europe to Asia are actually easing rather than tightening monetary policy.
A look at the technicals revea…
EURGBP technical analysis (update)
Following yesterday's dovish BOE comments, EURGBP soared higher and is currently hanging just below the confluence resistance zone (0.7750 -0.7770). Our bia s for resistance to hold is reinforced by the diverging CCI pattern on the hourly chart. As such, we're currently long GBPUSD and GBPCAD at current levels (1.4530 and 1.9970).
GBP crosses take off with pre-BOE bids
Yesterday, we recognised the potential for GBP crosses to rise on account of the uptrend reversal pattern on the daily EURGBP chart after price hit a confluence zone of long-term support turned resistance (0.7755-0.7770). In case you missed it, check out yesterday's post. Price is currently below the 20-day EMA @ 0.7550 and GBPUSD is currently up 150 pips from its intraday low. We're looking for a close below 0.7550 in EURGBP after tomorrow's BOE rate announcement to confirm the new trend and t…
CADCHF bounce
The SNB stunned markets in January 2015 by reversing the 1.20 francs per euro cap, thus uncoupling the Swiss franc. The currency soared immediately to multi year highs against virtually all other majors breaking support/resistance trend lines in the process. CADCHF tested the 2015 lows again last month and held support (double bottom) and is likely to test the multi year support trend line turned resistance between 0.7640 and 0.7740. However, current price action suggests a pullback to 0.7120, t…
BOE rhetoric to send GBP crosses higher.
EURGBP advance stalled after hitting former(monthly) trendline support turned resistance @ 0.7770. Additional resistance in the zone comes from July 2012 low of 0.7755. A reversal pattern is already evident on the daily chart with a CCI trend line break. We're looking for price to close below its 20-day SMA to confirm a trend reversal and the fundamental trigger might be the BOE statement regarding future rate hike expectations and economic outlook to be released on Thursday.