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TheAnalyst's Blog
Bullish USD/ZAR Forecast
Looking at the monthly chart we are going for a bullish prediction for October. The pair broke through a channel and the MACD has turned positive.
Worrying signs for a bullish prediction include the timing and the MACD indicator. The timing is that the broken channel happened on the news about Turkey and the diving Lira. On top of that we don’t have a solid confirmation since the monthly close is in a couple of weeks. As for the MACD indicator it has turned at a level where it could easily turn…
Worrying signs for a bullish prediction include the timing and the MACD indicator. The timing is that the broken channel happened on the news about Turkey and the diving Lira. On top of that we don’t have a solid confirmation since the monthly close is in a couple of weeks. As for the MACD indicator it has turned at a level where it could easily turn…
USD/JPY Limited Bullish
The pair just weeks ago had a strong technical bearish move, with the pair moving below a key retest 50% fibonacci level as seen in monthly chart 1.
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
Monthly Chart 1.
As of September 15 the charts have changed enough to point to a prolonged bullish move. Assuming the pair will act more or less the same with any North Korea threat developments and nothing too good or bad unexpected developments from the FED meeting next week, then the pair is poised to move upwards, but with limited upside.
As see…
EUR/USD BREAKING NEWS?
Are we done with the FED resignations and ECB QE "breaking news" now? Can we just worry about Draghi tomorrow?
EUR/USD: lots of buying at 1.188 and at 1.192. Some selling at 1.195. SHORT trade is still holding. Either direction the pair takes it will be a 200 point move.
EUR/USD: lots of buying at 1.188 and at 1.192. Some selling at 1.195. SHORT trade is still holding. Either direction the pair takes it will be a 200 point move.
NON-FARM PAYROLLS
Waiting for non-farm payrolls to be released. The numbers are expected to be positive for the dollar. Generally, looking for a SHORT in the EUR/USD since it already hit a key target above 1.20 this week.
USD/ZAR and USD/JPY are a bit difficult to pin down at the moment. Technicals have a bearish bias, but with ADP numbers good earlier this week, a bullish move is very likely.
Most likely, will wait for a better risk/reward ratio trade next week and not enter a trade today.
USD/ZAR and USD/JPY are a bit difficult to pin down at the moment. Technicals have a bearish bias, but with ADP numbers good earlier this week, a bullish move is very likely.
Most likely, will wait for a better risk/reward ratio trade next week and not enter a trade today.
Bullish Movement After August
Based on the monthly and weekly chart we believe the pair won't retry the lows at the 12.40 price level, but will instead push through resistance at the previous weekly high at around 13.60.
Selling pressure is expected for August and the bullish move to happen sometime in September perhaps prompted by bond-buying program-related news and other signals from the FED. Lots of uncertainty remains and will remain for the rest of 2017 though, mainly political-related.
Nevertheless, based on technical…
Selling pressure is expected for August and the bullish move to happen sometime in September perhaps prompted by bond-buying program-related news and other signals from the FED. Lots of uncertainty remains and will remain for the rest of 2017 though, mainly political-related.
Nevertheless, based on technical…
Today's Trades
A LONG trade in USD/ZAR with a modest position size was entered and exited within the day, profitably.
A SHORT trade in USD/JPY is currently active with profit target 108.9 and big position size since technicals are looking strong.
Finally, our LONG EUR/USD trade from last week is still active, with the pair struggling to move up. Keeping our stop relatively small we remain in this LONG trade despite the politically-charged week with UK elections and ECB conference coming in.
A SHORT trade in USD/JPY is currently active with profit target 108.9 and big position size since technicals are looking strong.
Finally, our LONG EUR/USD trade from last week is still active, with the pair struggling to move up. Keeping our stop relatively small we remain in this LONG trade despite the politically-charged week with UK elections and ECB conference coming in.
USD/ZAR, EUR/AUD, EUR/USD and US Payrolls
A bad LONG trade in USD/ZAR, before the US payrolls numbers and a EUR/AUD LONG trade that didn't pan out in the timeframe we were hoping for (due to margin reasons) set us back today.
A EUR/USD LONG trade seems promising as the pair seems poised to reach 1.14 and move on up from there in the month.
A USD/ZAR SHORT trade was also initialized with the pair having the potential of making a big movement. Will be monitoring this particular pair though and might opt out closing it sooner than expected.
A EUR/USD LONG trade seems promising as the pair seems poised to reach 1.14 and move on up from there in the month.
A USD/ZAR SHORT trade was also initialized with the pair having the potential of making a big movement. Will be monitoring this particular pair though and might opt out closing it sooner than expected.
Ups & Downs
Rollercoaster week. Trades in GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/USD met with both high profits and losses. Discrepancies in the trading platform capital also didn't help with psychology either. More work to be done in the monthly trading strategy in order to increase profits while also protecting capital. Some tweaking of the trading plan for the remaining days in May and full implementation starting June with the goal of improving, a.k.a. more profits less roller coasting.