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Yen strength continues

al_dcdemo Posted 10 Feb.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/JPY #Boj #Yen Strength #H1 Chart
Yen strength has been one of the main stories this year. After unsuccessful attempt by the BOJ to stem its appreciation, yen buyers returned with force in February. The pair (USD/JPY) is down eight cents in the first eight trading days of the month.
It has broken below strong 115.50 - 116.00 support (now resistance) at the start of the week, held near 100 week SMA (~115) for two days and then continued below 23.6% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 rally today. October 2014 high near 110 is the next…
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USD/JPY to trade lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.25, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Spike #Yen Strength #Stimulus Program #Resistance Cluster #Sell Off #50 Week Sma #Short Lived Recovery
Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). The pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening. It retraced most of the losses but has been unable to get above 124.00.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke b…
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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 5: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 6: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. USD/JPY lost some 50 pips and traded down to Daily Support 1 (116.70) before turning back up and recouping the losses.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 8: The Yen continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Today, it briefly traded below August 2015 low (~116.20) and pierced 116 level which is an upper extreme of a strong 115.5 - 116 support zone. The support zone is a neckline of a big head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. If it gives way, measured move would target 105 - 107 which also includes 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 uptrend (~106.65), 2013 high (~105.5) and October 2014 low (~105.2).

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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