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Looks like yen crosses are breaking higher

Looks like yen crosses are breaking higher. Over all strength in yen crosses corresponding rallying global financial market sets the tone. I have couple of long yen crosses opened now. Usd/Jpy represents this better in the chart below of the carry trade strength.
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Yen Crosses continue to tumble

Yen Crosses continue to tumble. However there is a breather right now in market. And probable market is catching its breath for more volatility in days ahead. Interesting times and more opportunities in yen crosses ahead. Here is the chart of Aud/Jpy to show this illustration and reflect market sentiment towards risk.
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GBPJPY(24-27Jan2017)

GBPJPY (23-27Jan)
142.00 lvl is a resistance hard to break.
Multi-day hit and retrace from there
D1-Bearish (Bull might fight back at 139)
H4-Bullish(immediate re-tracement to 143.8 is possible this week )
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USDJPY (23-27Jan)

USDJPY (23-27 Jan2017)
AUDCAD reaching critical resistance zone
I m leaning towards it will go bk 0.99 before advancing further..
W1: Bearish
D1:Bearish (20Jan was Doji)
H4: Expect to retest 115.0,115.75 before breaking down to 114,113.5,111.5
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The Day Before: It was all about the #Yen

  • The JPY dragged all its crosses through the mud, breaking notable levels against the USD, EUR, and AUD.
  • Elsewhere, ECB Minutes showed that some members were looking for sharper cuts, which put the Single Currency under fire.

This article originally appeared at The F in Finance .

Follow me on Twitter: @thefinfinance
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Carry Trade Unwinding, USD/JPY is leading the way

Japanese Yen crosses are unwinding and speeding up. USD/JPY is going down taking all the other yen crosses down with it. It gained the momentum when the major support at 110 is broken. It can go down to 107 in short term. I have benefited from selling GPY/JPY and EUR/JPY so far. Looking forward to better levels to reenter and sell yen crosses. Any rally will be sold.
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Japanese Yen to Stay in Range

After a wild first two months of the year, the Japanese Yen has a calmer session in March. The pair closed lower by only 12 pips, forming a doji pattern on the monthly chart. This pattern signals indecision in the market. The market usually moves in a range about 70% of the time and only trends the other 30%.
An added problem for any trends is the active intervention by the Japanese ministry of Finance. Look at the 4h chart below. Notice the the pair keeps getting bought around 111 dollars for 1…
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fxsurprise8 avatar

The pair initially broke below the 111 barrier. But this week the losses are starting to get rewound and the pair slowly inched up to 110. Then on Friday the BOJ released new loan measures that indicate a willingness to do more in terms of easing.

This indicates that my noted intervention pattern from above is intact, even though the Bank didn't directly sell.

On the technical front. we're currently quoted at 111.80 right now. This is still about 72 pips away from my forecast. But with the next BOJ meeting next week, we'll have plenty of volatility to jolt this pair, hopefully to the upside.

fxsurprise8 avatar

Another update. Things are not looking good today, the USD/JPY is down another 50 pips to 111.30. While the pattern above is still valid, this day to day noise is bringing me further away from my target.

Hopefully the FOMC or BOJ events tomorrow will jolt the pair higher. The Bank of Japan is rumored to add to QE at this meeting. This would be bullish for the USD/JPY, although the long-lasting impact of these interventions is questionable.

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Yen strength continues

Yen strength has been one of the main stories this year. After unsuccessful attempt by the BOJ to stem its appreciation, yen buyers returned with force in February. The pair (USD/JPY) is down eight cents in the first eight trading days of the month.
It has broken below strong 115.50 - 116.00 support (now resistance) at the start of the week, held near 100 week SMA (~115) for two days and then continued below 23.6% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 rally today. October 2014 high near 110 is the next…
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USD/JPY to trade lower in January

Monthly chart
The pair broke above a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). The pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns about global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening. It retraced most of the losses but has been unable to get above 124.00.
Weekly chart
In the last week of August the pair broke b…
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al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 5: U.S. labour market report for December came out much stronger than expected as implied by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which was released on Wednesday. Knee-jerk was to buy the dollar but moves were quick to reverse in lower yielding currencies. A classical risk-off mode that will likely continue well into next week and perhaps beyond it, all things being equal.

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UPDATE 6: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. USD/JPY lost some 50 pips and traded down to Daily Support 1 (116.70) before turning back up and recouping the losses.

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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UPDATE 8: The Yen continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Today, it briefly traded below August 2015 low (~116.20) and pierced 116 level which is an upper extreme of a strong 115.5 - 116 support zone. The support zone is a neckline of a big head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. If it gives way, measured move would target 105 - 107 which also includes 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2015 uptrend (~106.65), 2013 high (~105.5) and October 2014 low (~105.2).

al_dcdemo avatar

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/JPY at a crucial point - make or break time

Usd/Jpy and the crosses have been knocked down hard yesterday by Yen strength across the board,
Chinese economic trouble, bad data for US seem to be the combination of factors
why investors are selling off the Usd
Usd/Jpy now stands at a critical support point - just above 101.95, which is daily trendline;
a break of 101.95 will also take out the lows of Friday - 102,
and traders believe a long haul down, a final leg will subsequently evolve,
and more importantly, if this happens it will not onl…
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