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Themes from last week continue. Yen is the strongest, followed by the U.S. dollar. AUD/JPY broke to new lows and NZD/JPY is likely to follow soon. CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY already did it last with EUR/JPY not far behind. GBP/JPY is the only one standing with a decent buffer or does it have some catch-up to do?
al_dcdemo's Blog
Dollar strength to start the year
Quite a lot of action for a Monday but it's not an ordinary day. A volatile first trading day of 2016 has seen the dollar rise and stock fall. Commodites have been mixed but mostly lower.
Yen was the only major currency that beat the dollar on this risk-off day. Offshore renminbi climbed to new multi year highs while PBOC set yuan reference rate to 6.5032 overnight.
Yen was the only major currency that beat the dollar on this risk-off day. Offshore renminbi climbed to new multi year highs while PBOC set yuan reference rate to 6.5032 overnight.
Japanese GDP improves
Final revision to Japanese Q1 GDP was released overnight and it was a pleasant surprise to the upside with the Capital Expenditure also posting a big gain.
GDP (YoY): 3.9% vs. 2.7% expected, 2.4% previous
GDP (QoQ): 1.0% vs. 0.7% expected, 0.6% previous
GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ): 2.7% vs. 2.3% expected, 0.4% previous
There was minor selling in USD/JPY after the release on the prospect that no additional easing will be required anytime soon. The pair found support at Daily Pivot Point (125.27…
GDP (YoY): 3.9% vs. 2.7% expected, 2.4% previous
GDP (QoQ): 1.0% vs. 0.7% expected, 0.6% previous
GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ): 2.7% vs. 2.3% expected, 0.4% previous
There was minor selling in USD/JPY after the release on the prospect that no additional easing will be required anytime soon. The pair found support at Daily Pivot Point (125.27…
Dollar wins out
It was a funny day full of whipsaws in most pairs and quite a lot of action for a Monday. In the end it all resolved to the Dollar strength after ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.8 vs. 51.9 expected and 51.5 previous.
USD/JPY made a new 13-year high and is currently approaching Daily Resistance 3 just below the big 125.00 level. It will likely be some selling around there, but the quick stop run up to Weekly Resistance 1 at 125.25 is not excluded.
USD/JPY made a new 13-year high and is currently approaching Daily Resistance 3 just below the big 125.00 level. It will likely be some selling around there, but the quick stop run up to Weekly Resistance 1 at 125.25 is not excluded.
USD/JPY pops 2007 high overnight
USD/JPY continued its uptrend overnight and broke 2007 high at 124.14, to the highest in the last thirteen years. It stalled at Daily Resistance 1 (124.23) and then pulled back 50 odd pips.
Initial resistance is found in 124.15 - 124.25 band (June 2007 high, Daily Resistance 1). Then few intraday levels: 124.50 level, Weekly Resistance 3 (124.66), Daily Resistance 2 (124.80). Then stronger at 125.00 level, before possibly even stronger in 125.50 - 125.70 band (125.50 level, Daily Resistance 3, H…
Initial resistance is found in 124.15 - 124.25 band (June 2007 high, Daily Resistance 1). Then few intraday levels: 124.50 level, Weekly Resistance 3 (124.66), Daily Resistance 2 (124.80). Then stronger at 125.00 level, before possibly even stronger in 125.50 - 125.70 band (125.50 level, Daily Resistance 3, H…
USD/JPY breaks higher
USD/JPY broke out of the six month trading range (115.50 - 122.00) yesterday and traded up to 123.30, adding more than 150 pips from the open. It wasn't able to follow through overnight as it remained in tight consolidation between 122.80 and 123.30. We'll see soon enough if this rally still has some legs, when European traders will start coming to their desks shortly.
July 2007 (123.67) and June 2007 (124.14) highs appear to be the main resistance levels nearby. Pivot point resistance levels ma…
July 2007 (123.67) and June 2007 (124.14) highs appear to be the main resistance levels nearby. Pivot point resistance levels ma…
USD/JPY breaks higher
The Yen has broken above the declining trendline (drawn off mid-March, mid-April and early May highs) on Tuesday and above recent mini range (118.50 - 120.50) yesterday when it finished the fifth day of gains.
Next target is six-month range top just above 122.00. Breaking above that would open the door towards the June 2007 high at 124.1. The BOJ concludes its two day meeting tomorrow and no change is expected. The pair will need support from the US economy and the Nikkei, if it wants to continu…
Next target is six-month range top just above 122.00. Breaking above that would open the door towards the June 2007 high at 124.1. The BOJ concludes its two day meeting tomorrow and no change is expected. The pair will need support from the US economy and the Nikkei, if it wants to continu…
USD/JPY won't leave the station just yet
Monthly chart:
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in the rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 122.00 ran…
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in the rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 122.00 ran…
Range trading prevails
Both ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI came out weaker than expected and USD/JPY is (again) testing 119.50 after being down there in Asian session. Overall, range trading prevails as Easter holiday closing in and liquidity getting thinner. But that's not to say an outsized move is not possible.
USD/JPY grinding higher
Monthly chart:
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85…
The pair still appears to be taking a consolidative pause in a rally towards strong resistance zone, which consists of:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of the November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, first major support is seen at 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair has been consolidating in 115.50 - 121.85…