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USD/JPY closing the year near the highs

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 120.0100, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Close #Highs #Uptrend #Year End
Monthly chart:
Price is trending up towards strong resistance zone:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA at 106 and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
As price is getting closer to 120 level, the momentum is somewhat weakening. The previous week's range bar clearly demonstrated indecision, but that was likely just a…
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5 Commenti
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al_dcdemo 6 Dic

Update1: The USD/JPY train continues its journey to the North. If it continues with this pace, it could easily reach the monthly resistance cluster (123-124) or even 125 by the end of the year. All three analyses - technical, fundamental and sentimental - support the rally. The only counter-argument is that the market is overbought and year-end is near and possibility of a correction is rising. If the correction indeed materializes, my prediction target of 120.01 will again come in focus.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dic

Update 2: We had quite decent (400 pip) pullback this week, but the lower tail on weekly candle indicates that the bulls won't give up just yet. There is also Japanese lower house election on Sunday, so understandably there was some profit taking present. We will have to wait till Monday to see whether this was really just a pullback or a start of a larger correction.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dic

Update 3: It appears that last week's decline was just a normal correction. Of course we won't know that for sure until the price breaks and continues to trade above the December 8 high, but given that nothing has changed and Abe remains in charge, that is the most probable scenario. But it may not happen this year as the pair will likely just consolidate around current levels till year-end.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dic

Update 4: Despite the consolidative nature of the week, the pair managed to re-take 120 and close the week above it. It seems that uptrend continuation and new multi year highs are just around the corner, but that probably won't happen until after the next week, which is expected to be range-bound.

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al_dcdemo 1 Gen

Update 5: The pair didn't manage to close the year above 120 but, nevertheless, the rally from July 2014 was impressive and there's prevailing sentiment that the Yen's decline is far from being over. Looking at the long term chart and 1982 high of 278, the potential is immense. The distance just to 38.2% retracement of the 1982 - 2011 decline, which is just above 150 level, is almost 35K pips.

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USD/CHF likely to consolidate into the year end

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9671, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Resistance #Consolidation #USD/CHF #Uptrend #Year End
Monthly chart:
On the upside, strong resistance levels are:
1. 23.6% retracement of the October 2000 to August 2011 downtrend.
2. Trendline that capped rallies in years 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
3. Parity level.
On the downside, the first decent support levels are 20 month SMA and 50 month SMA.
Weekly chart:
Momentum of the uptrend has somewhat slowed towards monthly resistance levels. Another important level is 2013 high at 0.9838 should the price continue to trend up. In the event of a …
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al_dcdemo 6 Dic

Update 1: After Swiss gold referendum failed the pair rallied to new highs. On Thursday ECB said that any new measures will be implemented in new year and the pair sold off about 150 pips. On Friday, after NFP report showed that US economy in November added more than 300K jobs, the pair rallied again and made new highs. Depending on what happens next week and if there will be any profit taking before year end, the target of 0.9671 could still be reached.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dic

Update 2: The pair is hanging just below the target of 0.9671. Although last week's candle looks bearish, as with EUR/USD, outlook depends mainly on the next week's FOMC meeting. If there won't be any big surprises, the pair may well stay around these levels till the end of the year.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dic

Update 3: The pair received two hits this week, both from central banks. The first was from the Fed on Wednesday and the second from SNB on Thursday, when it has announced that it will introduce negative rates on sight deposits. Technical picture is similar to that of EUR/USD and all points to further gains for the pair. But because of Christmas and New Year holiday shortened last two weeks of the year, expectation is for range-bound environment. That means that most likely the pair will turn down early next week and return to its recent range.

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