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Kiwi to trade above 0.70 by February

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6975, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 19 Jan.

UPDATE 10: NZD/USD has been in a steady uptrend since December and is poised to close sixth consecutive week in green. Overcoming the historically proven 0.7350 resistance would put 0.7450 - 0.75 area into focus, and maybe 0.76 - 0.77 after that. 0.72 - 0.7250 is the support.

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Aussie to consolidate around 0.75 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7525, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 10: After months of underperformance, Australian Retail Sales improved in November. iPhone X and Black Friday sales have been cited. AUD/USD jumped 40 pips and is holding the gains. 0.7875 - 0.79 area, that includes 61.8% retracement of the September - December downswing, is the immediate barrier. 0.7850 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jan.

UPDATE 11: Australian dollar started the week on the front foot and is approaching 0.7975 - 0.80 area, where it is likely to encounter at least some resistance. It's Martin Luther King Day today in the U.S. - thinner liquidity could lead to either tighter volatility or outsized moves.

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Loonie to consolidate through year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2625, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 5 Jan.

UPDATE 10: USD/CAD broke and closed below 1.25 yesterday and stalled there. The level is part of a wider 1.24 - 1.25 support area. Today's labour market reports from both U.S. and Canada will have a big say in whether we'll get a continuation or a pullback from here.

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al_dcdemo 8 Jan.

UPDATE 11: BOC Business Outlook Survey, released about an hour ago, was upbeat on the economy. Rate hike odds ticked further up. USD/CAD, however, is in the process of correcting Friday's outsized fall. 1.24 is the initial support and 1.245 the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 17 Jan.

UPDATE 12: Bank of Canada meets today and virtually everyone expects a hike. A cautious hike is indeed the most likely scenario, though I wouldn't rule out a hawkish hold. There should be a big market reaction in either case. 1.26 area is the first stronger resistance and 1.23 the support.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 13: Bank of Canada hiked overnight rate for the third time in this cycle. Market reaction was messy. There appears to have been a leak which prompted sell-the-fact trade about 20 seconds before the release. Price then whipsawed in a 150-pip range before settling in the middle. 1.24 is the initial support, 1.25 the resistance.

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Cable to continue steady rise as the year turns

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3725, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 11: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD topped out near 1.3610 just before E.U. session commenced. Two weaker than expected PMIs in a row didn't help the pair, which snapped back to 1.35. Possibly also some profit taking ahead of FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 13: GBP/USD surged 200 pips on Friday, closing the week on the highest level since Brexit vote. General U.S. dollar weakness and Spain and Netherlands supporting softer terms for actual Brexit were the main drivers. 1.3835 and 1.40 are the next targets. CPI and Retail Sales reports next week are the key U.K. data releases to watch in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 14: U.K. CPI inflation report for December came in solid. Headline was as expected, core missed by a tick, while retail surprised to the upside. GBP/USD was not impressed and spiked about 20 pips to the downside. Sellers have been active since yesterday, but if 1.3740 - 1.3750 area holds, bulls might get one more shot at 1.3835.

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al_dcdemo 24 Jan.

UPDATE 15: GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.K. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.

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USD/JPY to start 2018 on the back foot

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.75, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Daily Chart #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Trump Trade #Yield Curve Control
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/JPY surged more than 1800 pips in Q4 2016 during so-called Trump trade, topping out near the middle of the 2015 range. A correction that followe…
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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 9 Jan.

UPDATE 10: USD/JPY dropped like a rock as Bank of Japan bought slightly less JGBs than in previous open market operation. Selling already began yesterday though as the pair rejected prices above 113.30. 112 - 112.25 is the support area to watch.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 11: U.S. government failed to pass funding bill and went into shutdown. This will probably last a couple of weeks, the question is what it means for the U.S. dollar. A small gap lower is possible, but with ECB and BOJ meetings next week, a correction rather than continuation of the dollar weakness may be in the cards.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 12: BOJ kept the monetary policy unchanged at this meeting. The bank admitted that inflation is (slowly) rising towards the target of 2.0% and bumped up inflation expectations outlook in quarterly report. USD/JPY dropped about 30 pips but has since recovered. 110 - 110.25 is the area to watch on the downside and 111.50 on the upside.

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al_dcdemo 1 Feb.

UPDATE 13: FOMC left federal funds rate in 1.25% - 1.50% range, as expected. The statement was seen as slightly more hawkish than expected. March hike appears to be a done deal with some quarters now expecting as many as four rate hikes this year. U.S. dollar looks supported but will it last?

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USD/CHF to test 200 week SMA before bouncing

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9825, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below 200 week SMA and posted a weekly close below historically strong support at 0.95 twice, but losses were reversed promptly on bot…
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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is a saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 10 Jan.

UPDATE 9: USD/CHF broke above the pivotal 0.98 level, after spending one week below it. Position in the futures market is net short, but not at extreme levels, so there might still be some upside potential. Trendline, drawn off of October and December highs, is the area to keep an eye on.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar extended losses yesterday after treasury secretary Mnuchin told World Economic Forum that a weak dollar is good for trade. USD/CHF fell below 2014 - 2017 support line and stalled at the strong support area 0.94 - 0.945. A successful break would bring 0.90 - 0.91 into focus.

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EURo to hit 1.225 by February

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.2175, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #Daily Chart #EUR/USD #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Long Term Trendline #Net Long Positioning #Political Risks
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
After trading to the lowest level in fourteen years, EUR/USD consolidated below the long term trendline, drawn off of 1985 and 2000 lows, for five m…
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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could lead to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

UPDATE 10: EUR/USD is testing 2017 high (1.2090). A successful break would target 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline (1.2170), and then 2008 low (1.2330). U.S. jobs and wages report tomorrow could provide fuel for a larger move.

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al_dcdemo 12 Jan.

UPDATE 11: European currencies outperformed today. EUR/USD gained about 100 pips and is poised to post a highest weekly close in three years. 1.2165 (50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline) is a big area. A break above would open door to 1.23 - 1.2330 (LT trendline support, 2008 low) and put 1.25 (LT trendline resistance) into focus.

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al_dcdemo 26 Jan.

UPDATE 12: As expected, ECB kept policy steady. Draghi didn't try to talk down euro, which gave it another boost higher. Later, U.S. president Trump backtracked on what Mnuchin said a day earlier, saying that ultimately he "wants to see a strong dollar", which prompted a round of profit taking among U.S. dollar bears. EUR/USD already recovered half of that fall and appears ready to retest 1.25.

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Kiwi to stay below 0.70 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6925, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Reversal #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Big Figure #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
NZD/USD confirmed the 0.685 support as 2015 - 2016 support/resistance line held twice. The pair briefly traded above 200 week SMA, 50.0% retracement…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go one way, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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0.75 may not hold Aussie in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7450, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Correction #Double Top #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
AUD/USD finally cracked the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 in July and the convincing break above the pattern extended to 0.8125, just ahe…
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet this year.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Week ahead might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended this year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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Loonie to break 1.30 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2950, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

orto leave comments
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