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USD/CAD to test 1.3750 in January

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3625, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal is followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. The for…
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 35 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. The first of his actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound broke 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely watched.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. The pound rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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Loonie to trade mostly sideways into year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. The for…
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al_dcdemo 12 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Over the weekend, OPEC and non-OPEC countries reached a deal to cut oil production. On top of that, Saudi Arabia showed their commitment by declaring that they will cut more than what they agreed on last week. Oil prices opened sharply higher, WTI is currently up more than 5% on the day. Loonie gapped down at the open, extending the 450-pip fall since mid November. 2016 trendline near 1.31 is backed by 200 DMA. 1.3150 is the initial resistance.

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al_dcdemo 17 Dec.

UPDATE 6: The reaction after the Wednesday's FOMC decision was telling. The jump in bond yields and the surge in the dollar showed that the markets were priced for a more gradual tightening path than implied by the latest dot plot. Yellen's endorsement of the dot plot was another contributing factor. Even though it may seem that the dollar moved too far too fast, the rally looks very strong and I think we haven't seen the top yet. With this kind of momentum it is possible that the usual year-end thin holiday trading will mean more volatility rather than range-bound action.

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al_dcdemo 21 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Canadian dollar sold off strongly against the U.S. dollar after FOMC upgraded tightening path and Yellen used the word "gradual" only twice at the last week's press conference. Oil prices remain firm after OPEC and non-OPEC production cut deals. The pair sprang from the strong support zone (May - November trendline, 200 DMA, 2009 high) below 1.31 and almost completely retraced the decline from the first two weeks of the month in two days before stabilizing ahead of 1.3455 (Q3 2015 high). Looks bullish above 50 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 8: Liquidity and volatility both fell ahead of the holidays. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the pound and commodity currencies, weakened against the yen, and remained unchanged against the euro and the franc. If the past week was of some example, the week ahead should be even more quiet. But I wouldn't bet on it because I think some of the recent moves have further to run and many will not be patient enough to wait for the New Year to get on board of them. Year-end position-squaring coupled with low liquidity will produce a couple of moves in any case.

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al_dcdemo 31 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Final week of the year was a pretty calm one if we exclude sharp spikes in euro and franc on Friday - already thin early Asian session liquidity was further diluted due to holidays and a large-sized order took out weaker hands. The dollar ended the week mostly lower, in part also due to bulls booking profit at year-end. Many countries are observing a holiday on January 2nd but I'm sure not everyone will wait until the 3rd to place their first trade. Market themes remain firmly in place and that could mean a volatile start to the new year.

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Loonie may extend towards 1.375 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Bullish Bias #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Dovish Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by a wedge-like upward sloping consolidation formation. Up unti…
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie still trades on whips and whims of the oil market, although its correlation with that market is not at the level it was earlier this year. Oil price shock has probably been discounted while both markets are a bit tired of the endless production cut saga. The pair broke to the highest level since February on the U.S. election day. It briefly traded above 50.0% retracement of the year's decline before pulling back. Top of the seven-month wedge is the first stronger support with more at 50 DMA coming in from below.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after U.S. election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (large fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Oil production cut/freeze saga continues and the OPEC meeting tomorrow is very much in the spotlight. There've been headlines supporting both scenarios but the market has leaned on the side that there will be some kind of agreement reached. The Canadian dollar was one of the best performers yesterday as it closed about 90 pips (0.67%) higher against the U.S. dollar. 1.3375 - 1.3575 is the range in play. The lower extreme is reinforced by the eight-month wedge top and the upper extreme by the 50.0% retracement of the 2016 decline.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: OPEC decided to cut oil production by 1.2 mbpd to 32.5 mbpd yesterday. That was slightly less than what oil bulls may have hoped for but the fact that the cartel even reached an agreement is bullish in itself. We'll see whether non-OPEC will follow suit and whether the new quotas will be respected. The impact on the Canadian dollar was not as large as on the black gold. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction which was fairly on target and also anticipated the expected price path quite accurately.

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Loonie testing the bottom of the wedge

al_dcdemo Posted 7 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #Wedge #D1 Chart #Resilience
As much as the Canadian dollar was weak last year, it's been incredibly resilient so far this year. Oil remains its biggest driver but recently the currency seems to fall less on oil declines than it rises on oil rallies.
The pair is currently testing the bottom of the wedge pattern that it has been tracing since earlier this year. Area between 1.28 and 1.2750 (August low) marks an important support. 100 DMA is the first stronger resistance.
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Loonie to remain range-bound in September

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3075, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Oil #USD/CAD #Wedge #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Blow Off Top #Net Long Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Loonie started the year with a sharp rally and topped out near 76.4% retracement of the 2002 - 2007 downtrend. The reversal was even more impressiv…
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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead is among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. This bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. This outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some larger position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher TFs). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the Q4.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Contrary to expectations of many market participants, September turned out to be a mostly sideways month. One reason were certainly central banks, namely the Fed and the BOJ, and lack of action on their part. Oil did have a couple of volatile moves but the pair seems to be less sensitive to it than in earlier part of the year. The market probably already discounted much of the oil price shock. I'm happy with the prediction, particularly the target price while the projected price path was somewhat less accurate.

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Gold posts new five-year lows

al_dcdemo Updated 17 July  in #Trader's blog #Wedge #Breakout #XAU/USD #Momentum #Measured Target #H1 Chart
Even though currencies went mostly sideways today, there were a couple of noteworthy developments in the pairs. USD/CAD extended its breakout to make new six-year highs and EUR/GBP made new eight-year lows. Perhaps the most interesting is gold (XAU/USD), which broke last year's low to post new five-year lows.
If the momentum picks up, the potential is to at least 1000. The big level is backed by 2008 and early 2009 highs with 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally coming in below. The measu…
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iiivb 18 July

hey mate! how you finally did in the fundamental contest?

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al_dcdemo 18 July

Hi, I ended up on the fifth place, which I'm very happy with :) Thanks for your support!

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iiivb 18 July

al_dcdemo : anytime mate

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al_dcdemo 19 July

Thanks :)

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