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AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Posted 30 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7275, Date: 3rd of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

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WallStreet6 28 July

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

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AUD/USD downtrend not over yet

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7469, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Range #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias #Decline
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following two months it traded in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but it finished March trading below 200 month SMA. Further down, some demand should come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and 0.70 big figure le…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 3: This week was a complete opposite of the last week, as Aussie was the strongest of the major currencies. It was RBA and their decision to stay on hold that was keeping the pair underpinned. It didn't, however, manage to make any significant gains, as it remained in the lower half of the recent 0.7550 - 0.7590 range. It ended the week 30 odd pips higher, but that's quite an achievement compared to other major pairs, which moved 100 - 400 pips to the USD side.

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al_dcdemo 12 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Near-term direction will depend on the economic data from US and China, which will be coming throughout all week, and Aussie jobs report to be released on Thursday. Until then the risk is on the upside, unless the data from the States improves and/or Chinese disappoint. Range support extends from 0.7500 to 0.7550, while resistance is seen in 0.7900 - 0.7950 band. I expect the pair to remain contained between these two extremes at least until May RBA meeting.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: After two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 18 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Following unconvincing price action but with two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Australian CPI report will be released on Wednesday and both headline CPI q/q and RBA's favorite Trimmed Mean CPI q/q are expected to come out lower. Any positive surprises could see the pair breaking above 100 DMA and testing range top near 0.7925. Otherwise most likely scenario is for the pair to remain in its recent 3-month range, as many market participants and indeed OIS are still projecting rate cut in May.

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USD pullback continues

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Fomc #Test #Weakness #Dma
Euro gained 80 pips on the day (150 from European session low) so far, as broader USD weakness continues into the week. It stalled ahead of 1.0950 but the first real test will come between 1.10 and post-FOMC high at 1.1035 before January low near 1.11 and 50 DMA near 1.12.
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AUD/USD to fall some more

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7527, Date: 1st of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Stevens #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA and has been since consolidating around it. If the average breaks, there should be some demand at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70 big fig…
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al_dcdemo 15 Mar.

UPDATE 2: It was similar story as in other major pairs, just that declines were not as big as in European currencies. In addition, Thursday's pullback proved to be quite substantial (in relative terms) and the pair managed to preserve more gains. Technical picture is still bearish, but the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. If RBA doesn't cut on one of its next meetings and the data from Australia improve, pullback to 0.8000 - 0.8250 is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 21 Mar.

UPDATE 3: After range-bound start to the week, the volatility exceeded all expectations on Wednesday, after Fed revealed that they are in no hurry to hike rates. The pair surged almost 200 pips in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting, but then came back all the way to the weekly lows before continuing higher on Friday. It closed the week just below 50 DMA and this will be the first resistance to overcome, if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 4: What looked like a potential break higher in the beginning of the week as the pair briefly traded above February 26 high and came into vicinity of 100 DMA, turned sour, when it reversed in landslide fashion afterwards, with the pair closing the week below 50 DMA. 20 DMA is now the immediate support, before cycle low at 0.7560 and 0.75 level.

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foreignexchange 1 Apr.

Congratulation

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al_dcdemo 1 Apr.

Thanks! I'd like it to fall a bit further in the next two hours. :)

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AUD/USD: further downside ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7712, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Bounce #Rate Cut #Short Squeeze #Weakness
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie has accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it has convincingly broken 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA, which is the level to watch in the following days. If that goes, there should be some support at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens) then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70…
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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

It was a roller-coaster ride for the pair, but it ended the week nearly unchanged. Descending trendline (off September 5 2014 and January 15 highs) and 50 DMA are still performing their job, capping upticks. But outlook depends mainly on the next week's RBA meeting and the pair will likely stay around current levels till then.

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WallStreet6 28 Feb.

Agree, until the RBA meeting only small fluctuations around the current levels should take place. On Monday can still get a bit closer to the target price.

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al_dcdemo 1 Mar.

There was a surprise PBOC interest rate cut yesterday, but any rallies will be likely quickly sold as RBA looms.

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foreignexchange 2 Mar.

Great analysis, do you think it is possible a retracement around the 0.7702 zone ?   

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al_dcdemo 2 Mar.

Thanks! 0.7702 sure is possible before RBA but 0.7725 - 0.7750 support appears strong. I'd say a leak about rate cut will be needed to trade below that.

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