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6 JAN 17 GBPUSD HORIZONTAL SUPPORT BREAK

killer195175 Publier 6 jan  dans #Trader's blog #Gbpusd #Sell #Falling #Weakness #Horizontal Support
Hello, fellow traders,
As we can see that today the GBPUSD has come below our level of 1.2325 and perhaps will close week and day below this level. So further weakness is expected in the pair. Look for sell on the rise.
GBPUSD 4H CHART
Any comments about the setup are welcome.
Happy trading to all.
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Thomas Jordan expects CHF to stay at current level &weaken

ForexSpeaker Mis à jour 10 jan  dans #Trader's blog #CHF #Fundamental #Swiss Franc #Weakness
swiss National Bank president Thomas Jordan speaking just now to SRF Radio
  • Swiss franc is significantly overvalued, especially vs euro
  • SNB does not have an implicit minimum exchange rate, looks at ccy situation as a whole
  • minimum exchange rate is not a good instrument to fight a weak euro
  • negative rates and readiness to intervene in fx market are best policy at the moment
  • keeping currency cap would have done more harm than good
…
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AUD/USD to break lower

al_dcdemo Publié 30 juin comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7275, Date: 3 de août, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Fake Breakout #Range #Weakness #Easing Bias #Higher Lows #Rba Governor Stevens #May 2010 Low #Spring Pattern
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of the year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke below 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend. In the following four months it traded mostly in 0.7550 - 0.7950 range, but broke higher in the end of April. The breakout proved to have been fake as the pair returned back to the range in May.
Weekly chart:
Should the downtrend resume, some demand may come in at 0.75 (level tout…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 juillet

UPDATE 8: The latest fall stalled near January 2009 high (0.7268). Below that, 0.72 (61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend, 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally), 0.71 (trendline drawn off of 2001 and 2008 lows) and 0.70 (big figure level) shall come into play. The pair so far failed to break back above 0.73. Further resistance is seen at the broken Monday low near 0.7325.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 juillet

Great analysis and it could land really close to target!

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 juillet

Thanks! Yep, this one looks promising. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 juillet

UPDATE 9: Aussie posted three new six-year lows this week, but none of them was able to attract sufficient orderflow to spur stronger downward momentum. The pair's range was the smallest of the seven major pairs, just over 130 pips. However, the pair spent most of the week in even smaller, 100 pip, range. This week concludes five weeks of losses and the month in which the pair lost four cents.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 aou

UPDATE 10: Week ahead will be important one for the pair as the RBA meets and we will be given clues as to where they are standing with regard to the monetary policy. January 2009 high (~0.7270) is the first support level to break, if the downtrend is to continue. Below that we have 76.4% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally (~0.7210) and 61.8% retracement of the 2001 to 2011 uptrend (~0.7180). Initial resistance may be found around 0.7350.

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AUD/USD downtrend not over yet

al_dcdemo Publié 31 mar comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7469, Date: 1 de mai, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Stevens #Range #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias #Decline
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 50.0% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. In the following two months it traded in 0.7550 - 0.7925 range, but it finished March trading below 200 month SMA. Further down, some demand should come in at 0.75 (level touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and 0.70 big figure le…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 11 avr

UPDATE 3: This week was a complete opposite of the last week, as Aussie was the strongest of the major currencies. It was RBA and their decision to stay on hold that was keeping the pair underpinned. It didn't, however, manage to make any significant gains, as it remained in the lower half of the recent 0.7550 - 0.7590 range. It ended the week 30 odd pips higher, but that's quite an achievement compared to other major pairs, which moved 100 - 400 pips to the USD side.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 avr

UPDATE 4: Near-term direction will depend on the economic data from US and China, which will be coming throughout all week, and Aussie jobs report to be released on Thursday. Until then the risk is on the upside, unless the data from the States improves and/or Chinese disappoint. Range support extends from 0.7500 to 0.7550, while resistance is seen in 0.7900 - 0.7950 band. I expect the pair to remain contained between these two extremes at least until May RBA meeting.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 avr

UPDATE 5: After two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 18 avr

UPDATE 5: Following unconvincing price action but with two higher lows and three higher highs in the first three days of the week, the pair exploded higher on Thursday when Australian jobs report came out much better than expected, showing improvements in most metrics. That was understandably followed by range-bound Friday in which shorter-term Dollar shorts took some profits, after the rally stalled ahead of 100 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 19 avr

UPDATE 6: Australian CPI report will be released on Wednesday and both headline CPI q/q and RBA's favorite Trimmed Mean CPI q/q are expected to come out lower. Any positive surprises could see the pair breaking above 100 DMA and testing range top near 0.7925. Otherwise most likely scenario is for the pair to remain in its recent 3-month range, as many market participants and indeed OIS are still projecting rate cut in May.

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USD pullback continues

al_dcdemo Publier 23 mar  dans #Trader's blog #Euro #EUR/USD #Fomc #Test #Weakness #Dma
Euro gained 80 pips on the day (150 from European session low) so far, as broader USD weakness continues into the week. It stalled ahead of 1.0950 but the first real test will come between 1.10 and post-FOMC high at 1.1035 before January low near 1.11 and 50 DMA near 1.12.
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AUD/USD to fall some more

al_dcdemo Publié 28 fév comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7527, Date: 1 de avril, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Stevens #Weakness #Pullback #Easing Bias
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it convincingly broke 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA and has been since consolidating around it. If the average breaks, there should be some demand at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens), then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70 big fig…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 mar

UPDATE 2: It was similar story as in other major pairs, just that declines were not as big as in European currencies. In addition, Thursday's pullback proved to be quite substantial (in relative terms) and the pair managed to preserve more gains. Technical picture is still bearish, but the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. If RBA doesn't cut on one of its next meetings and the data from Australia improve, pullback to 0.8000 - 0.8250 is not excluded.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 21 mar

UPDATE 3: After range-bound start to the week, the volatility exceeded all expectations on Wednesday, after Fed revealed that they are in no hurry to hike rates. The pair surged almost 200 pips in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting, but then came back all the way to the weekly lows before continuing higher on Friday. It closed the week just below 50 DMA and this will be the first resistance to overcome, if the pair wants to maintain bullish bias.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 mar

UPDATE 4: What looked like a potential break higher in the beginning of the week as the pair briefly traded above February 26 high and came into vicinity of 100 DMA, turned sour, when it reversed in landslide fashion afterwards, with the pair closing the week below 50 DMA. 20 DMA is now the immediate support, before cycle low at 0.7560 and 0.75 level.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 1 avr

Congratulation

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 avr

Thanks! I'd like it to fall a bit further in the next two hours. :)

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AUD/USD: further downside ahead

al_dcdemo Publié 30 jan comme Analyse sur AUD/USD, Cible: 0.7712, Date: 2 de mars, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Aussie #Rba #Consolidation #Bounce #Rate Cut #Short Squeeze #Weakness
Monthly chart:
As most major pairs, Aussie has accelerated its decline in the first month of this year. After a bit of consolidation it has convincingly broken 0.80 level and 0.50% retracement of 2001 - 2011 uptrend. The pair finished January trading right on 200 month SMA, which is the level to watch in the following days. If that goes, there should be some support at 0.75 (level also touted by RBA governor Stevens) then there's 61.8% retracement (of 2001 - 2011 uptrend) at 0.7185 and then 0.70…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 fév

It was a roller-coaster ride for the pair, but it ended the week nearly unchanged. Descending trendline (off September 5 2014 and January 15 highs) and 50 DMA are still performing their job, capping upticks. But outlook depends mainly on the next week's RBA meeting and the pair will likely stay around current levels till then.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 fév

Agree, until the RBA meeting only small fluctuations around the current levels should take place. On Monday can still get a bit closer to the target price.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 1 mar

There was a surprise PBOC interest rate cut yesterday, but any rallies will be likely quickly sold as RBA looms.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 mar

Great analysis, do you think it is possible a retracement around the 0.7702 zone ?   

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 mar

Thanks! 0.7702 sure is possible before RBA but 0.7725 - 0.7750 support appears strong. I'd say a leak about rate cut will be needed to trade below that.

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Looking to sell against the Yen - crazy, or not?

AdamFx42 Publier 2 nov  dans #Trader's blog #Technicals #Reversal #Major Pairs #Weakness #Pullback #Corrections #Positioning
When the markets open tonight I will be looking for an opportunity to sell one or more currencies
against the Yen - meaning I will be looking to go short Gbp/Jpy, or short Eur/Jpy, Aud/Jpy, Nzd/Jpy etc.
Am I crazy doing this - with all this Usd strength around, and Usd/Jpy sky-rocketing,
the Japan economic easing - weakening their currency ...
you would certainly think that I have lost it, but look at it this way:
Remember a couple of years ago when US QE was the big news,
everyone was looking t…
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2 Commentaires
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 2 nov

try it :P

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AdamFx42 2 nov

Will do

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US Dollar Outlook: Further Weakness Ahead?

alifari Publier 27 juin  dans #Trader's blog #USD #Outlook #Weakness
The U.S. dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies this past week on the lack of consistently positive data. Big disappointments in GDP and a steep decline in durable goods raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. recovery. The majority of market participants don’t expect the Fed to raise interest rates until the second half of next year but after this week’s reports, the odds of a rate hike in June 2015 fell to 50% from 60% a week ago.
Non-Farm payrolls are scheduled for re…
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USD/CHF- More Weakness!

Metal_Mind Publié 30 mar comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.8723, Date: 1 de mai, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Swiss #Decision #Tehnical Analysis #USD/CHF #Snb #Rate #Interest #Weakness #Verbal #Ntervention
  • Charts: 4Hours, 1 Day.
  • Indicators: Fibonacci Fan Lines,Fibonacci Retracements,CCI.
  • Prepared with :JForex 4.
  • Current Level :0.8869.
[list=1][/list]…
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4 Commentaires
Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 21 avr

UPDATE 1: This is a great prediction. The pair resumed into lower grounds as expected. The market is testing SNB reaction and will probably go even lower towards my target. The curent price level is 0.8835 and with this week to go the target is pretty realistic

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 30 avr

UPDATE 2: Current price level is  0.8802 which is a 79 pips deviation from target. The trend is at a boottom support very well positioned and could  lunch tommorow in a bullish rally towards my target. Good help.

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 1 mai

FINAL UPDATE : The price at settlment was 0.8787 that beeing an 64 pips deviation from target. It is very far for a win but  it is a good prediction for my book.

Omela avatar
Omela 8 mai

возможно, всё возможно)

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