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After trading below October's low and to as low as 1.15, EUR/USD bounced strongly, leaving a hammer on the weekly chart. Not out of the woods yet but convincingly trading above 1.175 - 1.18 would probably mean that a more significant low was put in place.
al_dcdemo's Blog
Is the U.S. dollar rally over?
After three weeks of gains, U.S. dollar recorded a mixed week against major currencies. A general opinion is that this rally is a corrective one and that the dollar weakening trend will resume before long, on U.S. deficit issues and monetary policy convergence, and that makes sense. However, market often does whatever hurts most people the most, and will possibly test the resolve of these participants first.
Is EUR/USD setting up for uptrend continuation?
EUR/USD has traded in 1.215 - 1.255 range this year, though most of the price action has been contained between 1.225 and 1.245. The pair is currently trading right at the 2017 - 2018 channel support, an important decision area. A break below would target 1.20 and 200 DMA. On the flipside, a break above 1.26 would be big and would target 1.30 initially.
Will USD/JPY close the month and quarter below 105?
USD/JPY closed last week below the important 105 - 105.30 support. Calendar-light and holiday-shortened week ahead probably means lower participation and some choppy price action, though a substantial move in either direction wouldn't come as a surprise. 102.5 - 103 remains the next target on the downside.
FOMC has to deliver, but does it matter at all?
USD/JPY is at an important juncture. 105 - 105.30 (76.4% retracement of the Trump rally) is the last stronger chart-based support area ahead of the big 100. A successful break will probably see a quick markdown to 102.5 - 103. FOMC decision is a potential catalyst. A hike is a done deal but even if they explicitly signal another three hikes this year (unlikely), I don't think that will stop the decline for long, if at all. 95 before winter is not all that unfathomable anymore.
Yen the performer of the week
Bank of Japan is turning every so slightly more hawkish, even though its officials are trying to downplay it. U.S. Administration's politics continues to weigh on the dollar, despite interest rate advantage against most major currencies. USD/JPY extended its decline, pausing at the 76.4% retracement of the Trump rally. If 105 - 105.5 area gives way, a quick fall to 101.5 - 102.5 is quite possible.
1.25 - 1.255 caps EUR/USD for now
EUR/USD has been deflected three times in the falling 2008 - 2018 trendline zone near 1.25. The pair is however well entrenched in the rising 2017 - 2018 channel. We'll need to get below the 1.20 - 1.21 area on a sustained basis before we can begin to talk about a trend change.
USD/JPY breaks to the lowest level since 2016
USD/JPY broke 2017 low overnight but it may not be over yet. The breakout is quite significant (longer-term trendline) and there's U.S. inflation report coming up which could send the pair even lower in any case. Weak numbers, USD/JPY falls. Strong numbers, bond yields rise, stocks fall further, USD/JPY falls. The next major support to keep an eye on is 61.8% retracement of the 2016 upswing, around 106.5.
GBP/USD breaks 1.40, appears not done yet
GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.S. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.
EUR/USD looks poised for a break higher
EUR/USD is testing 2017 high (1.2090). A successful break would target 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2017 decline (1.2170), and then 2008 low (1.2330). U.S. jobs and wages report tomorrow could provide fuel for a larger move.