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US Dollar near 12 year highs

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 7 Lis  w #Trader's blog #Us Dollar
With the impressive NFP figures that we saw on the latest job report it's no surprise to see the US Dollar trading again near the highs we saw in March-April. If we mange to break this highs we're on the path to post a new 12 year highs for the US Dollar. If you're a reader of my blog this should come as no surprise as I've been a dollar bull since the beginning of this trend.
As we're entering into the final period of this year the seasonality should also play a role and we may see a pause in t…
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The Terminus Point

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 17 Wrz  w #Trader's blog #Interest Rates #Fed #Us Dollar
Today is the one of the biggest day that we have seen recently as the Fed can either move towards normalizing interest rates or it can choose to keep them at historical low level for more time. Even though my expectation is for NO change in monetary policy I'm still factoring in a 20% probability of a rate hike. I mean anything can happen but the higher probability suggest a no move today.
The other half of the equation is how the market will respond as depending on how hawkish or dovish Yellen …
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Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 17 Wrz

keep it up, bro! ;) let it shake and rattle!

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 17 Wrz

Berkeley slow and steady:)

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Prepearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 8 Cze  w #Trader's blog #Us Dollar #Fundamental Analysis Contest #Momentum #Greek Debt

This week will be dominant again by the Greek debt talks, which so far has been very limited risk effect on the markets. Also we should expect based on the last week NFP figure the dollar momentum to continue however if we look at price action we can tell that there is more likely the market will stay in a range so at this point it may be the best to trade both side of the market.
Tomorrow we should pay attention to the BOE inflation report and EU zone GDP which have been better than expected f…
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1980-1985 US Dollar Analog

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 11 Maj  w #Trader's blog #Fibonacci #Us Dollar #Interest Rate #Accumulation #Analog
Since I didn't had enough space to cover this matters on my US Dollar Macro and Technical view article, which you can find it here: US Dollar Macro and Technical
I thought to add a few more notes on what I'm looking when it comes to the US Dollar cycle. The 1980-1985 US Dollar analog has served as map to price action since the beginning of this rally(see Figure 1) If we measure the Fibonacci retracement from the index's secular peak in 1985 we can see that we didn't even touched the 38.2 fi…
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guilhemch avatar
guilhemch 11 Maj

Thank you that was interesting!! I also have a sentiment that the USD bullish wave is not done especially vs the JPY.

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Daytrader21 11 Maj

guilhemch Also EUR/USD has to go below parity in coming years so there is plenty of room for it to go down

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The US Dollar Technicals

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 9 Maj  w #Trader's blog #Article Contest #Dxy #Cycles #Us Dollar
This blog post it's a continuation from last time I talked about the US Dollar, but in the meantime I wrote an Article talking there in more details about this issue, go check it out here: US Dollar Macro and Technical View
It's not unrealistic for the dollar to continue rallying as there have been other instances in the past in which case the dollar rally has extended past 50% mark (see Figure 5). Actually the dollar trade weighted cycles tend to last on average 8 years and we ha…
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Us Dollar Macro and Technical View

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 4 Maj  w #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Volatility #Technical #Macro #Interest Rates #Fed #Us Dollar #Global Easing
The US Dollar has been on the spotlight since beginning of the year as momentum has surprised everyone. Retracements continue to be shallow. The dollar bullish trend is well mature on its own and I thought it's the perfect time to reinforce my view on the dollar as many are asking: what's next for the US Dollar?
This is the US dollar's fastest rise in 40 years, and the US Dollar was up on one point 14% on this year alone, and I was one of the few to speak about the dollar rally, e…
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USD/CHF Back Towards Parity

Daytrader21 Przesłano 28 Mar jako Analiza USD/CHF, Cel: 0.9936, Data: 1 z Maj, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Fibonacci #USD/CHF #Us Dollar #Parity #Snb Black Swan
Even thought back in January USD/CHF crashed due the SNB Black Swan even, caused by SNB decision to abandon the 1.2 peg, we're back near parity level, and this is all due to the US dollar exceptional rally. The broad based dollar strength was playing a key role in this impressive recovery and we should see this pair above current year high around 1.0200 level as soon as the dollar bullish trend resume. Right now we're trading in between two big round numbers, with support level at 0.9500 and …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 11 Kwi

Update 1: The 0.9500 level, big round number, has provided a good support and the market could break below it proving the current up trend. Next week we have a pivot point at 0.9900 which must be tested but however I don't think we're going to break higher than that for the time being the market seems in a much complex consolidation

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 18 Kwi

Update 2: The market seems trapped inside the 0.9500 big round number and support level and 0.9860 resistance level. Over the past weeks we trade inside this wide range. We need a clear breakout of the resistance zone in order to have a chance to hit our target

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Daytrader21 20 Kwi

Update 3: The market seems to be holding above 0.9500 big round number quite well, we already posted a green Monday candle this should help keeping up the momentum

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Daytrader21 25 Kwi

Update 4: Well even thought 0.9500 was still holding the market there wasn't enough momentum to push it higher and basically we're unchanged from last week. The line of least resistance is still to the upside however there is not enough time to catch up 500 pips to meet our target

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Gambling Everything On One Card

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 19 Mar  w #Trader's blog #Bullish #Gamble #Fomc #Fed #Us Dollar #Economic Forecast
Yesterday was my only chance to produce some goods trades and enable me to get closer to the top 10 and I had to force myself and gamble my entire account balance on one trade: long the Dollar. Since I couldn't have the luxury of time, I have to guess and put my bets in advance of the FOMC statement.
In hindsight is quite simple to judge why the market has reacted the way it did, however we as trader had to come with the proper plan before the market movement. Even though Fed dropped the word …
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Gold - Long Term Trendline

Daytrader21 Uaktualniono 9 Mar  w #Trader's blog #Business Cycle #Gold #Emerging Markets #Us Dollar #Trend Line #Deflation #Bearish Seasonality

Gold was trading to the downside quite nicely over the last few weeks, after we managed to put in place a top around $1300 level, this level was suggested as a possible top on my last update about Gold which you can find it here: Gold Down- Channel
Despite all the geopolitical tension, the Greece debt crisis, ECB QE programme and many other factors, Gold couldn't find a bid in the market and that's reason enough to conclude that the current bearish trend is still reinforcing itself and Gold is …
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US Dollar Index Target Hit

Daytrader21 Uaktualniono 5 Wrz  w #Trader's blog #Volatility #Trader Contest #Bullish #Dxy #Us Dollar
I just can't believe I'm already out from the Trader Contest, but unfortunately I blow up my chances for this month to catch any top rank. However I'm glad to see the return in volatility, when you have day with +200 pips in EUR/USD you just can't ask for more.
During this past year I really anticipated a lot of big swing movements, and one of those great call is definitely the US dollar bullish trend.
On my last update on the US Dollar trend I've give you my first target on DXY to be 83.…
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Shalomavahatikvah avatar
Shalomavahatikvah 5 Wrz

Can't argue the strength of this blog or the USDI. All the strength indications are there. Little bit overheated so a nice pullback would present nice buying opportunities. Nice anlysis!

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