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EURo boggles below the trendline

al_dcdemo Updated 12 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Trendline #EUR/USD #Greece #50 Dma #100 Dma #Us Data
Euro has been bumping into the declining trendline (drawn off July 2014, August 2014, December 2014, May 2015 and June 2015 highs) for the most of the past week. On the flipside, all falls on the disappointing Greek headlines and better US data were promptly soaked up. Supply and demand are in balance at the moment, but one of the sides will soon give in.
A great catalyst for the upside would be a deal between Greece and its creditors. Not sure about Greek default, as on one hand it would cause …
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EURo caps into 1.14 ahead of NFP

al_dcdemo Posted 5 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #Euro #EUR/USD #Greece #Bund #Us Data
After yet another 150 pip jump in the Euro yesterday (sell-off in Bund was cited as a catalyst), the pair topped near the trendline drawn off August 17th 2014, December 14th 2014 and May 10th 2015 highs. It reversed from there on profit taking ahead of NFP, better US data and no progress on Greek deal. It took out post-ECB low at 1.1230 overnight to trade down to 1.1180, but is not back to 1.1250.
Support is now confirmed around 1.1180 with the next strong level at 1.11. Initial resistance is se…
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GBP/USD to remain well supported

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5525, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Reversal #Lift Off #Us Data #Medium Term Downtrend #Longer Term Uptrend #Us Dollar Strengh #Three Leg Correction #Bearish Sentiment
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as a trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. It reversed from there but ran out of puff just above 1.58.
Weekly chart:
…
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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: 50 and 100 DMA held the declines on two occasions in the past week and will remain the most important levels to watch in the week ahead. The pair will need to break below both averages to confirm bearish bias. If not, trading back above 1.5350 will establish bullish tone and 200 DMA, which currently sits just above 1.55, will come back into focus. If that goes, the pair is free to retest 1.58 and possibly trade up to 1.60.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: Cable was the best performer on the week among major pairs. It gained nearly 300 pips from the open while the weekly range was about 380 pips. Most of the gains were acquired in US sessions while the pair was mostly sold in Europe. Exception was Wednesday when that pair rocketed higher despite mixed industrial production report. A lot of the strength came from EUR/GBP selling on combination of overbought technicals and safe haven flows due to the uncertainty regarding Greece.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: There are four important UK economic events coming up in the week ahead: inflation report, jobs report, MPC meeting minutes and retail sales. On the other side of the pond we have even more important FOMC meeting and US inflation report. After strong performance in the past week, some consolidation and/or correction in the beginning of the week is the most likely scenario.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 7: After fake move up in the Asian and early European session on Monday, the pair sold off strongly and started a correction which has been so far worth close to 250 pips. The pair tried to rally on Wednesday, but it turned out that the move back up to 1.58 was just a short squeeze. The rest of the week was range-bound. Weekly candle doesn't look that bearish as it retraced less than half of previous week's gains.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 8: The week ahead will be important one for the pair, not just because Greek story implications for the UK but it's also that week in the month when we get PMI figures for UK's three major sectors: Services, Manufacturing and Construction. On top of that, Current Account and Final GDP will be released. Initial support is seen between 1.5650 and 1.5675 with stronger closer to 1.55 level. First resistance may come in around 1.58.

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USD/JPY to extend breakout

al_dcdemo Posted 30 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 127.2500, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Breakout #Ascending Triangle #Big Figure #Resistance Cluster #Dollar Strength #Measured Target #Japanese Recovery #Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair broke a strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14) and is poised to close the month above that. There's not a lot of chart based resistance until 2002 high at 135.90, but the big figure levels at 125.00 and 130.00 will without doubt be closely watched.
Weekly chart:
Following 600+ pip correction in December 2014, the pair consolidated in 115.5…
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al_dcdemo 31 May

The breakout really wasn't that strong, but putting another 300 pips by the end of the June is not entirely impossible.

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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 3: Relative to the previous two weeks, the pair traded in a lacklustre range during most of the week. The range was essentially a triangle pattern, that broke to the upside before Friday's NFP. Kudos to all those that traded the break and managed to hold through the release. The pair surged on better NFP numbers, breaking 125 level in the process. It pulled back after briefly trading above December 2002 high at 125.75.

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al_dcdemo 7 June

UPDATE 4: Even though last week's range was lesser than in the previous two weeks, the candle still looks bullish: long real body with the close on the highs. If we take this rally as a break out of March/April range, then the measured target (125.70) was just achieved. But I suspect most traders are looking at the current breakout as one out of the December 2014 to April 2015 ascending triangle, with the projected target near 128.

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al_dcdemo 14 June

UPDATE 5: As most majors, the pair reversed Friday's losses by the end of the Monday's US session. It consolidated on Tuesday and early Wednesday but then came a surprise remark from BOJ governor Kuroda, who said that it's hard to see Yen's real effective rate falling further. The pair lost nearly 200 pips in the aftermath of the remark. Half of that was regained on the next day, but there was no follow through on Friday and the pair closed in the lower third of its weekly range.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: Although the pair opened the week lower, there was no follow through and it appears that the Kuroda comments' impact may have ran its course, at least for now. The most important event this week will be the FOMC meeting in which they will hopefully give the market some clues as to when they intend to start the long awaited rate hiking cycle. Support is now defined near 122.50, while the initial resistance is seen into 124.00.

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