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Summary
1) The past two major bear markets for the euro were significantly larger than the current one.
2) Currencies are prone to large overshoots.
3) The peak in monetary divergence is not known and even if it was, the incentive structure of interest rates favors a continued decline in the euro.
The first bear market is associated with the policy overshoot with Reagan's stimulative fiscal policy and Volcker's tight monetary policy.The euro's equivalent lost about 58% of its value.
The secon…
1) The past two major bear markets for the euro were significantly larger than the current one.
2) Currencies are prone to large overshoots.
3) The peak in monetary divergence is not known and even if it was, the incentive structure of interest rates favors a continued decline in the euro.
The first bear market is associated with the policy overshoot with Reagan's stimulative fiscal policy and Volcker's tight monetary policy.The euro's equivalent lost about 58% of its value.
The secon…