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USD/CAD 750 Pips Profits Since This Summer

Daytrader21 Posted 16 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Upward Channel
In this blog post I'm going to reproduce my analysis on USD/CAD. I've made this forecast this summer and my first target, above previous swing high 1.1300, was hit generating a nice 750 pips profit.
Here is what I had to say about USD/CAD back than: USD/CAD Uptrend Losing His Steam
"The current USD/CAD bullish trend is losing his momentum suggesting we have entered in a more prolonged type of correction especially since we have entered during the summer trading conditions, when volatility…
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VictoriaVika 16 Oct.

Best of luck today! (Yesterday in past) :)))

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AUD/JPY Upward Channel Ready to Break Down

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on AUD/JPY, Target: 91.1400, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Pivot Point #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel #Momentum
It seems like AUD/JPY has been turning to the downside once we got in place the 98.50 swing high. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1) we can see the whole price structure which shows that since beginning of the year we have moved within an upward channel. But we lack momentum inside this upward channel that's one of the main reason why the up move was unsustained and now we're turning lower. Ultimately I'm expecting AUD/JPY to challenge again the 88.00 big pivot point.
Figure 1: AU
…
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VictoriaVika 12 Oct.

Happy Sunday and best wishes for next week :)

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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: This past week we had first attempt to break the channel but we had a reaction. However this doesn't change the current bearish sentiment and as long as we stay below 95.00 level we should expect further downside. Next week the major support is 91.72 previous swing low which i'm expecting to be challenged.

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CAD/CHF ABC Correction

Daytrader21 Posted 12 Oct. as Analysis on CAD/CHF, Target: 0.8328, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD/CHF #Pivot Point #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel #Abc Correction
Since beginning of the year CAD/CHF has started trading inside an upward trading channel (see Figure 1). Based on Elliott Wave count we have completed a five wave cycle inside this upward channel and it's wise to expect from current levels a corrections. My projection sees wave A coming down to the base of wave 4 at around 0.8400 from where we should expect another run up towards 0.8500 and complete the sequence with another wave down.
Figure 1. CAD/CHF Daily Chart. Elliott Wave Count
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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 1: The sell of that started from around the 0.8600 level has continued to extend to the downside as expected. Based on Elliott Wave the wave A should develop in 3 waves of smaller degree, so in this regard we have just completed wave a of A. Now we're in the process of developing wave b of A whihc should take form of an congestion zone between 0.8300-0.8450 levels.

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Daytrader21 15 Nov.

Update 2: For now we have completed only wave A of higher degree which has took shape of another 3 wave of smaller degree. Key resistance level remains at 0.8500 big round number and the fact that we had a weekly close below it suggest that bears for now are in control. Support for next week comes in at 0.8400 level

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Daytrader21 22 Nov.

Update 3: Unfortunately we broke above key resistance level and big round number and it may be the case we're heading up as we broke above current range zone and usually this means further movement in the direction of the breakout. However if in the first days of next week the market is going to retrace back and close below 0.8500 this can be considered a false breakout

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Daytrader21 29 Nov.

Update 4: As expected and as per my previous update we stared selling from beginning of the week and by the end of the week we have a strong close below 0.8500 level. This is a much more complex  retracement and it may be the case we're developing a double zig-zag pattern

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GBP/CHF Upward Channel Final Stage

Daytrader21 Posted 14 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5264, Date: 3rd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliott Wave #GBP/CHF #Upward Channel #Wave Cycle
GBP/CHF like the most swiss pairs have been going nowhere since SNB step into the market we have been stuck into a big range. We have establish the range between 1.5480 high and 1.3800 low, an 680 pips range. we can been seen that for the most part we have been staying at the lower level of this range comparing it with the times we have visited the high of the range. From figure 1 it can been seen that based on Elliott Wave we have are in the last stage of this range as soon we'll complete a fiv…
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Daytrader21 11 Oct.

Update 1: We have made another run towards 1.5500 major resistance level which has stopped current rally and also produced a sell off. This marginal high lacks momentum that's the reason why I'm expecting the market to turn back down.For next week main level remains 1.5400 resistance level and 1.5200 support level.

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Daytrader21 19 Oct.

Update 2: Current sell of from 1.5500 previous swing high should be treat as wave 1 of wave D. As based on Elliot wave the wave D should develop a five wave move of lesser degree. As wave 1 as bee completed once we hit the support level at 1.5000 big round number we're already developing wave 2 of D which will develop a 3 wave move of lesser degree. Nest week support is at 1.5100 and resistance at 1.5300.

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Daytrader21 25 Oct.

Update 3: Wave 2 has already extended to the 61.8 fib retracement and this should provide us with some kind of resistance. This rally from 1.5000 swing low has already completed a 5 wave cycle and we should expect a sell of in a 3 wave decline.Key resistance for next week remains 1.5320 and support is at 1.5185

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Daytrader21 29 Oct.

Update 4: Right now our target has been hit as the market has been consolidated around 1.5260 and as per my previous update we can expect from here a 3 wave decline First wave should find support at 1.5200 fib extention target from where we need another rally up before to resume down again

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Daytrader21 1 Nov.

Update 5: Unfortunately we broke above key resistance level 1.5340 and moved away from our target. I don't think there is enough time for the market to come back and consume this rally on monday, however I do expect this to be a false breakout and by Friday to come down again

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21  in #Technical analysis #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Carry Trade #NZD/USD #Elliott Wave #Upward Channel
For many of you who are constantly following my blog already know that I'm holding a long kiwi position and even despite recent sell of I still hold this position and you can find the full reasons behind this trade by reading my last article here: Carry Trade Returns Here is another blog post back from April: RBNZ The Most Hawkish CB
In this blog we're going to look beyond the carry trade and have a look at …
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VikaChechenkova 2 Aug.

it's so difficult!))

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NZD/USD Looking Beyond the Carry Trade

Daytrader21 Posted 31 July as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.8647, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Carry Trade #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Elliott Wave #Range #Upward Channel
Since current price action of NZD/USD has been greatly influenced by the carry trade this time we're going to look on just the technicals. On the weekly chart (see Figure 1)we can see that starting from around last year NZD/USD has start developing an upward channel which may suggest that we'll break away from current multi-year range bound activity. Elliott Wave also suggest that we're in the earlier inception of this new bullish trend as we only can count 2 impulsive waves with the 3 wave curr…
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Daytrader21 3 Aug.

Update 1. We're already starting to see first signs that current sell of is done, momentum is already starting to pick up and although we're still consolidating between 0.8530-0.8460 this is very healthy for the market as we're building this new base for the next leg up

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 2: Right now we're consolidating between 0.8420-0.8500 which can be the base for the next up leg, but first we need a break and a close above 0.8500 big round number. Right now wave ii of 3 has been completed and we're looking for wave iii of 3 to develop in coming days

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Daytrader21 16 Aug.

Update 3: As expected we continue to consolidate between 0.8400 support level and 0.8530 resistance level, and only a break above this resistance can ignite some more upside momentum. There is nothing much happening outside this levels so any break of this 2 levels are important to watch.

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Daytrader21 24 Aug.

Update 4: although we break below 0.8400 support level we fail to close below it, and this is a strong case for the bulls to regain control of this market. However we need momentum to start picking up and have a break and a close above 0.8500 level

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GBP/CHF Upward Channel Final Stage

Daytrader21 Posted 20 July as Analysis on GBP/CHF, Target: 1.5226, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Elliot Wave #GBP/CHF #Range #Upward Channel
GBP/CHF like the most swiss pairs have been going nowhere since SNB step into the market we have been stuck into a big range. We have establish the range between 1.5480 high and 1.3800 low, an 680 pips range. we can been seen that for the most part we have been staying at the lower level of this range comparing it with the times we have visited the high of the range. From figure 1 it can been seen that we have multiple touch of support and only one touch of resistance. This multiple rejection of…
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Daytrader21 3 Aug.

Update 2: finally the market has started breaking lower and although we are few pips away from our target as per my prediction we should see a break lower below previous sing low of 1.5200 all the way down until 1.5150 before going back up and retest the broken trend line

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Daytrader21 9 Aug.

Update 3: As per my previous update we finally broke and close below 1.5200 which is a false breakout as per my forecast right now we should see market pulling back up to retest the broken trendline.

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Daytrader21 16 Aug.

Update 4: It may be the case that my timing on this prediction is wrong as it seems wave D is already developing and we may not get any pullback as per my expectation. However 1.5000 is a big round number and as long as this level stay intact the market can rebound.

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Daytrader21 24 Aug.

Update 5: Indeed 1.5000 level has kept the market for further declining and as long as it stays intact we can see momentum gaining up speed again. However we need a break and close above 1.5180. Currently price is in congestion between 1.5180 resistance level and 1.5050 support level.

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Daytrader21 30 Aug.

Update 6: We're only 13 pips deviation from my projection but this current mini rally looks corrective and it's heading right into a daily pivot level which should provide enough support for the market and cap any upside movement. And based on Elliot Wave this should be wave 2 of bigger wave D which should develop in 5 wave movement. For next week we have resistance at 1.5250 and with support at 1.5180.

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NZD/CAD Heading Towards New All Time Highs

Daytrader21 Posted 15 June as Analysis on NZD/CAD, Target: 0.9418, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #Consolidation #Up Trend #NZD/CAD #Upward Channel #Momentum
NZD/CAD previous all time high exchange rate was at 0.9776 which is coming at risk in coming months, as current up trend is developing in full swing as we manage to breakout above current upward channel and the fact that we had a successful retest of the channel and price is holding above it which adds more to the upward momentum (see Figure 1).
Figure 1. NZD/CAD Weekly Chart. Upward Channel.

Daily chart also suggest that in coming week we can expect some further consolidations as we appr…
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Daytrader21 22 June

Update 1: It seems we have push a little too much lower from my projection of 0.9450 to act as support, now we should look carefully for 0.9300 to act as strong support.and see the market move in a tight rage from here on. The price structure of this move is very weak so don't expect any further downside movement.

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Daytrader21 7 July

Update 2: As expected we have start consolidating as per my projection from Figure 2(green box). And price structure suggest further consolidation between 0.9250 support zone and 0.9450 resistance zone.

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Daytrader21 12 July

Update 3: We're now somewhere around the middle box (see Figure 2 green box) which should provide some resistance. Although we have already hit our target as per my analysis we should expect further consolidation. The next big resistance level remains 0.9500 which is an important psychological level, and break above that level can invalidate my analysis

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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: We're still within that green box(see Figure 2) and between 0.9500 resistance level and 0.93 support level. Until one of this two level gives up expect further consolidation. But as per my analysis 0.9300 level should hold and see the market go up

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: Unfortunately we broke 0.9300 round number and support level which currently makes this pair looks very bearish and I'm not sure if there is enough time to gain momentum back to the upside. In order for that to happen we need here a quick bounce and a regain of the 0.9300 level as soon as possible.

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USD/CAD Uptrend Losing His Steam

Daytrader21 Posted 15 June as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.0717, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Volatility #USD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Upward Channel
The current USD/CAD bullish trend is losing his momentum suggesting we have entered in a more prolonged type of correction especially since we have entered during the summer trading conditions, when volatility usually dry out and the market tend to stay in congestion.Also since mid 2012 USD/CAD has started trading inside an upward channel (see Figure 1)and current downward momentum suggest we're heading for a retest of lower border of the channel, where price should find some kind of support.
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Daytrader21 22 June

Update 1: This strong breakout below 1.0800 round number and strong support level suggest that we should see further downside movement as there is not much support under way to stop this move for further falling. I only see the next support at around 1.0650 where I do expect the market to form a base from where to start the next big up leg and resume the bullish trend

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Daytrader21 7 July

Update 2: As per my previous update we indeed found support at the 1.0650 important pivot point which will provide the base for the next up swing leg. First we need a break and close above 1.0680 resistance zone before any upside movement to get traction.

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Daytrader21 12 July

update 3: USD/CAD never look below 1.0600 as per my expectation and as we already see this base has indeed provided the support for the next rally. We broke tot he upside through several resistance levels and we already hit our target at 1.0717. However to to price structure price should not exccede 1.0760 where we should find some resistance and i'm looking for some retracement.

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Daytrader21 19 July

Update 4: Last week the market was in a mere 100 pip consolidation zone, with 1.0700 being good resistance zone. It's good thing we're consolidating here as we're building the base for the next up leg. So far so good and the market is following my forecast. Next week prepeared for a break to the upside, as we already have put in place a major low

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Daytrader21 26 July

Update 5: We already gone 100 pips past my target so it may seems that my timing was wrong but the direction is proven to be still right

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