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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7339 , Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Gains in EUR/TRY Fizzle Out

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8531, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #EUR/TRY #Uptrend #Overbought #Try #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Us Elections
The gains in the EUR/TRY during January are being eaten away in February. We're now quoted at 3.8541, barely above this year's open for this currency pair. This shows that the bull trend has been broken.
Exhibit number two is the lower time-frame chart below. Here we see that prices are indecisive , with large swings. While in the pic above we had gains erased by downtrend, here we see losses erased by uptrend.
In conclusion, this year neither the bulls nor the bears can steer this currency pair…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The EUR/TRY is trading at 3.9248 right now, around 1.8 percent away from my forecasted price.

Initially the pair acted according to my expectations. From March 1st to March 17th we've been trading mostly range-bound, although with a slight bullish bias. Since then however the pair started moving back up as the Euro is being bought up across the board on risk aversion.

Still looking at the daily chart, you couldn't tell this is a trend. We're well within the bound of last month's trading range for example.And February was within the bound of January's trading range. Ranges prevail!

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 2: We're now quoted at 3.8996 in this pair and slowly drifting toward my forecasted price of 3.8531. The past three days saw some mixed price action, as you can expect in this pair.

First the EUR/TRY rallied to a high of 3.9644, only to get sold to low of 3.8825 in the next two days. We are currently trading at 3.8996 like we said above, closer to the lows then the highs.

Seems that my previous update called it right. While prices were moving up, it didn't look like much of a trend to me. And now we're seeing the pair reverse those tentative gains.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The EUR/TRY continues the slow drift toward my 3.8531 target. We're now trading at 3.8705, only 0.45% away from my forecasted price.

More of the same seems likely here as the momentum is still down. We should see the pair continue to drift lower and hopefully settle at a better price for me on Monday.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today. Volatile swings with no decisive outcome.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: This for another update and this time we will add a chart. This picture shows the price action for EUR/TRY during March.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today.

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The EUR/TRY opened the new week at 3.8683, a bit closer to my forecasted price at 3.8531.

Unfortunately in the next few hours of the Asian session the move lower fizzled out and we're currently quoted at 3.8733.

This is little changed compared to the close on Friday, so we'll have to wait and see what happens on Monday in the last few hours of the contest!

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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.151, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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New Zealand Dollar to Rally Further

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7439, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Trendline #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Uptrend #New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar is having a good year. The currency is up by 259 pips against the U.S. Dollar since January 1st. On our first chart below we see that after bottoming out in the middle of last year, it’s been a slow but steady grind higher.
This is confirmed further by looking at lower timeframe chart. Below we see the same momentum higher on the 4 Hour chart. I expect this to continue into year-end. The post-election USD rally seems to be exhausting itself and this should benefit my long …
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TInna 1 Dec.

very well!

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Aussie to Make a Break for 0.8000

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7819, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #AUD/USD #Rally #Australian Dollar #Uptrend #Average True Range #Us Elections
It’s been a good year for the Australian Dollar. The pair is up by 200 pips this year. This may not look like much but keep in mind that these gains were made in the context of general Dollar strength. Our first chart bellows shows the tentative but clear uptrend in 2016.
On our next chart we can see the same momentum higher but on a lower timeframe chart. While other pairs continue to suffer after Trump’s election win, the AUD/USD is heading higher. With both the long-term trend and the short-…
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TInna 1 Dec.

good

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Potentially Large Gains for Cable

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4889, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #GBP/USD #Europe #Cable #Gains #Movement #Uptrend #UK EU Referendum
We could potentially see large gains in Cable. The pair has been repressed in the past year by political instability. First by the Scottish independence referendum last year and now by the coming EU exit referendum. But as time goes on the 'Remain' camp continues to secure the lead. This could lead to some short squeezing as we get closer to the referendum date in June.
On the daily chart below we can see a completed reverse Head and Shoulders pattern. This signals that more gains could be on th…
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USD/JPY in for a Strong Rally

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 115.79, Date: 1 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #JPY Weakness #Japanese Recovery #Triple Bottom
The USD/JPY could be in for a strong rally. The pair closed May on a high note, currently at 110.66 from a high of 111.44 yesterday. The daily chart below shows just how consistent this uptrend has been. Notice the nice stair-step climb with little retracement.
Things are looking bullish on the long-term charts as well. Here the USD/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since the end of 2012. In fact the past few months of losses are the exception not the rule. With both the long-term and short-term …
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Stabilization with an Upward Bias for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1415, Date: 1 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/USD #European Union #Us Dollar #Uptrend #Single Currency
The past month has been hectic for the EUR/USD. We’ve seen prices rally over 700 pips to a high of 1.1713, only to fall back down to 1.1150 in the next five days. One Euro is currently selling for 1.1232 U.S. Dollars, off by almost 500 pips from the highs.
But despite the blowout top, the trend is up, as indicated by a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. I expect to see some stabilization in the Euro but with an upward bias. I place my target at 1.1415 because this is just below a series …
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