コミュニティ
ブログ
Daytrader21のブログ

Daytrader21のブログ

Avatar

Geopolitical Risk Greatest Threat to Risk Aversion

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年08月12日  in #Trader's blog #Russia #EUR/USD #Ukraine #Us Dollar #Geopolitical Risk #Risk Aversion #Treasuries
Risk in the market remains elevate by current Russia-Ukraine conflict on the one hand and USA&EU vs Russia sanctions. I'm expecting this geopolitical risks to remain elevate in coming weeks as there are no sign of any de-escalation of this conflict. In this regard we should expect market sentiment to be in risk aversion mode as this is clearly suggested by the lower equity price and higher Treasuries.
Globally there is more than just Ukraine-Russia conflict we have Gaza-Israel conflict, Iraq, S…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

コメントを残す
もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

Gold - Next Move

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月13日  in #Trader's blog #Bullish #Correlation #Gold #Ukraine #Bonds #Risk Aversion
I've been quite busy and on tight schedule lately and I barely could have time to update my blog but I'm Back!
Since Gold has been keep pressing to the upside I just want to make an update to my previous remarks about gold which you can read here: Gold Outlook
Since the risk aversion kicked in with the Ukraine crisis not only that I've been watching very careful what gold is doing but I've been trading it very actively. Right now I think that gold has already started for a big upside leg that ca…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

5 コメント
Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 2014年03月13日

wow))

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月13日

You don't have the right to say "WOW", only I can say WOW to your photos:))

DaytradeMillionaire avatar
DaytradeMillionaire 2014年03月13日

I like your analysis especially since my TP is set almost exactly the first target ;)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月13日

DaytradeMillionaire lets hope we can make some profits on this one:)

jezz avatar
jezz 2014年03月23日

1390 and facepalm? :P

もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

Nikkei Invalidated Risk Aversion

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月04日  in #Trader's blog #JPY #Ukraine #Nikkei #Risk Aversion #Risk On Off
Recent developments in Ukraine have been very risk averse to the market and classic safe haven assets classes like Gold and yen saw some capital inflow. And I was long both yen and Gold, but last night something caught me attention which was Nikkei which suggested to me that we are set for a rally. Price structure on Nikkei made me change my mind and from being net long yen which means short xxx/jpy pairs, to being net short yen which means being long xxx/jpy.
Usually in time of uncertainties Ri…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

1 コメント
Convallium avatar
Convallium 2014年03月06日

You are write useful articles) Excellent!

もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

1979 Russia Invasion of Afghanistan. 2014 Ukraine. Gold Price

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月03日  in #Trader's blog #Russia #War #Ukraine #Gold Price #Cu
In this blog post I'm going to reproduce a small part of my in depth analysis over Ukraine crisis and what it means to the market. The whole analysis should be published in form of an article during this week, right now my article is waiting for approval, but meanwhile we can look at what an Russian invasion in Ukraine means to the Gold market

[list][/list]…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

20 コメント
さらに15 のコメントを見る
Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

LOL, I'll have to confess that I'm very confused:), please translate:)

jezz avatar
jezz 2014年03月03日

First, I need to go buy some... and as they say it on TV - will be back after these messages.
What I didn't catch is the explanation of the fall of price of gold upon the invasion of Georgia. I know that you don't take out random events and put them in context to prove your theory.
But what I find intriguing in your fractal analysis is the fact that the single currency is on stage now. That could be the explanation of the same direction of gold and USD, that is abandoning the EUR. The market tends to repeat itself, but the players have changed, so not to follow each theory blindly.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

First you must understand the cycle we're in don't forget 2008 was the year of the risk aversion. Also at that point Gold has been in full development of the secular bull market without any sights of it to end, I mean everyone was bullish on gold and we got the opposite effect just because when the majority of the trading participants are u=in one side of the market usually the market goes in the opposite direction. In 1979 there where other condition and we where in another cycle. When working with correlation you must understand the cycle, otherwise it won't work.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年03月03日

I know I'm giving you a simplistic view but right now I'm busy managing some big exposure, beside being long gold I also bought some yen and sold the eurusd from Friday, now back in my cave:))

Metal_Mind avatar
Metal_Mind 2014年03月03日

I have some update buddy about Ukraine. The things are as follow. The markets put an hold today as tomorow will be the decisive day when invasion will or will not happen. USA has it's hands tied up. They can't enforce anything against Rusia.One of the general fromt he security commitee said it will not risk to send warships in the Black Sea since our times aren't Cold war and you can't send them there if you don't intend to use them. European politicians doesn't have much to say either. We consume Russian gas so we are vulnerable in case we opposed mighty Rusia will.

もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年03月02日  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Boe #Boc #Rba #Ukraine #Risk Event #Geopolitical Event #Save Haven

With the uprising tension in Ukraine and because we are in facto in a war the market action may be disrupted by the events developing right now in Ukraine. If the market will get very sensitive to this geopolitical event we can see massive capital inflows into the save haven instruments like USD,CHF,JPY and Gold which is ultimately the hedge against government not inflation as I've been demonstrating in my previous blog posts.
Above all of this next week economic calendar is very heavy and H…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

1 コメント
Maria_r avatar
Maria_r 2014年03月02日

+1

もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

Gold Outlook

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年02月25日  in #Trader's blog #Russia #Inflation #Gold #Ukraine #Channel #Secular Bull Market
Recently I've seen quite a high blog post "inflation" about the precious metal Gold, so I've decided to give my own outlook about current development in the Gold market. The recent rally in the gold market has been on the front page in the last few days, and everyone is now calling for the secular bull market
resuming his trend.
But if you ask me timing the next big up leg is critical and I only see that coming after we'll have some decent retracement in the equity market.
However recent develo…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

2 コメント
sonjatrader avatar
sonjatrader 2014年02月25日

Daytrader21 your post are better and better. Nice trading day!!

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年02月25日

Thank you Sonia, much appreciated. Wish you all the best!

もしくはコメントを残す
Avatar

Olympics and Stock Market Correlation. Cycle of War

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年02月17日  in #Trader's blog #Russia #Stock Market #Ukraine #Cycles #Geopolitical Event #Olympics #Cold War
A professional trader will look at just about everything that can give him a statistical edge to make a profitable trade. Even myself as a believer and practitioner of market cycles I'm looking for cycles that can be found from presidential election, Inflation figures, Unemployment figures and even the Olympic Games if there is a statistical evidence that you can make a buck from it than I'll trade it.
According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the…
全て読む
翻訳する: 英語 オリジナルを表示

あなたはログインしていないため、以下の言語で表示されます: 英語
翻訳するために、サインインしたり、リストから他言語を選択したりしてください

– もしくは –

8 コメント
さらに3 のコメントを見る
Skif avatar
Skif 2014年02月17日

Не пишите о том о чем не имеете представления , это сообщение касается вашего мнения относительно событий происходящих в Украине .

jezz avatar
jezz 2014年02月17日

Sometimes I feel a strong connection (actually I mean love) between you and fractals :D

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2014年02月17日

@Jezz LOL.........Actually, I'm very fascinated about fractals in general and in particular about the applicability in the Markets as well. You just give me an idea, tomorrow I'm going to update one fractal that I've posted here last year, and guess what the market followed that analog quite astonishing:)))). At that moment many didn't believed it will work. You'll have to wait until tomorrow to see about what fractal I speak about:).

jezz avatar
jezz 2014年02月17日

Pascal freaks...

ruwim avatar
ruwim 2014年03月07日

very interesting, thanks for your research and good luck.

もしくはコメントを残す