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Pound Targeting 1.3500?

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3434, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #GBP/USD #Resistance #Cable #Rally #Retracement #Resistance Zone #UK Election
The Pound could be targeting the 1.3500 round level in June. Exhibit A is the chart below. Notice how after a strong +900 pips rally from the lows the pair is now consolidating. The fact that we're currently quoted less then 200 pips below the highs signals to me that this is just a healthy retracement on the way to more gains. The UK election is coming up soon and that should act as a price catalyst as well.
But what could be our target? The nearest resistance level can be found at the 1.3448 s…
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Singapore Dollar Near Long-Term Average

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3832, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #50 Retracement #Singapore Dollar #Moving Average #Range Bound #Fibo Retracement #365 Moving Average
The Singapore Dollar is trading near its long-term moving average. On the chart below we can see two things, a Fibonacci retracement tool spanning the most recent swing high and low on the daily chart and a 365 period moving average.
The Fibonacci tool shows us that we're currently trading in between the 50 and 61% retracement, very close to the middle ground of the move during the past 12 months. Two, the 365 MA (in blue) is right now at 1.3858, only 26 pips away from the current price for USD/…
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EURo Nearing Cluster of Previous Resistance Levels

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1242, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Europe #EUR/USD #Overbought #Resistances #Resistance Zone #Stochastic Indicator #Stochastic
The Euro is slowly becoming overbought. Look at the weekly chart below. We are already trading past the 80 level on the Stochastic Oscillator, a level which signifies an overbought market condition. But that on it's own shouldn't be traded upon.
Exhibit number two is the second picture below. We are nearing a cluster of previous resistance levels, starting from this month's high at 1.1268 to the 1.1302 spike on Trump election day. Higher up more levels can be found at 1.1370, 1.1428 and of cours…
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USD/SGD Range-bound for Almost 2 Years

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3970, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The USD/SGD continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price. But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.
The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. The second chart below show a similar picture on the larger time-frame chart. He…
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Singapore Dollar Still Locked in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3973, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #Volatility #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
The Singapore Dollar is still trading locked in a range vs the US dollar, as can be seen on our first chart below.
The second chart demonstrates this point even more clearly, as we're seeing the currency pair swing back and forth aimlessly.
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

So far so good! The pair continued the range-bound trading during April as well. We are currently quoted at 1.3965, only 8 pips away from the open and from my forecasted price.

But not only did the pair range but it did it in very low volatility We opened the month at 1.3973, rallied to a high of 1.4081 only to sell off to a low of 1.3906.

The total low to high range was only 175 pips, very low for any currency pair for 30 days. Everything it pointing to more of the same! Wish me luck as the contest end draws near!

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fxsurprise8 3 May

The pair continued its usual range-bound behavior and ended the contest period at 1.3968, only 5 pips away from my 1.3973 target.

In percentage terms this is around 0.03%, which should land me a spot among the top again. The last few days saw more of the same.

We hit a high of 1.3975 and a low of 1.3940, so again low volatility and range-bound movements prevailed. Stay toned for my final update where I will post an updated chart.

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fxsurprise8 3 May

Lot of swings with no result! This is how April can be characterized for the USD/SGD. Look at the chart above to see what I mean.

First we rallied to a high of 1.4081 by April 10th, then sold off to a low of 1.3906 on April 25th. The lows were quickly bought up however and the pair rallied back up to 'close' the contest period at 1.3968.

This is only 5 pips away from my targeted price. Overall the forecast was very accurate. It predicted that the USD/SGD will remain locked in range, which is exactly what happened during April.

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Slow Recovery Underway in NZD/USD

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7339 , Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Rally #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Kiwi #Recovery #Uptrend #Momentum
A slow recovery is underway in the Kiwi. As we can see from our first chart below, prices bottomed out in August of last year and since then we’ve been going up slowly.
Recently that trend hit a small bump in road as general risk aversion across all markets led to NZD selling. The Kiwi gets sold because it’s a risk-on currency, people hold it for carry and unwind these trades during bad times.
Nonetheless as we can see on the second daily chart below, the trend seems to be back up! Prices only…
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Another Range-Bound Month for the Euro

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0654, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #USD #Ecb #EUR/USD #Us Dollar #Greenback #Range Bound #Single Currency #Congestion
The Euro had another range-bound month. We opened March at 1.0576, first traded to a low of 1.0494, then to a high of 1.0906, only to fall back down to 1.0654 today.
The chart above shows this volatile but ultimately indecisive market movement. On our second chart below we can see that this range-bound movement has been happening for the past few months, not just one month. The large rectangle on this chart shows March while the smaller ones show important turning points in the market.
Notice ho…
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Aussie Back on the Offensive

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7990, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USD #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rally #Us Dollar #Australian Dollar #Pullback #Average True Range #Risk Sentiment
The Australian Dollar is back on the offensive. This month we got yet another test of the important resistance in the 0.7700 – 0.7800 area. Prices peaked at 0.7749 this time around before pulling back.
However the move lower wasn’t Aussie specific but happened on general risk aversion across all markets. This gives me reason to think that the next time prices rally toward the resistance we could get a breakout above.
Our final chart above shows this resistance area. You can see that it’s been …
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Kiwi in Bullish Trend

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7471, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD #USD #Bullish #NZD/USD #Us Dollar #Moving Average #Average True Range #50 Ema #25 Ema
The Kiwi has entered a bullish trend. On our first chart below we see that the 25 day (in blue) and 50 day (in red) exponential moving averages are trending higher, with the 25 above the 50 EMA. This indicates that a bullish trend has commenced in this currency pair.
But just how far can this rally go? The 20 month Average True Range is currently at 370 pips. But of course this is the high to low range, not the open to close range we need to estimate a target.
I’ll be placing my forecast just be…
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Singapore Dollar Back to Long-Term Fair Value

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.4037, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Box #Congestion #Us Elections #Trump Bump
After some volatility, especially right after last year's election of Donald Trump, the USD/SGD seems to be coming back to its long-term fair value. On our first chart below we can see that the pair is now trading near the 1.4000 round figure.
This is the same price as back in August of 2015. So 18 months later and the pair hasn't made any gains. We can safely say that the bullish trend is in remission.
On our final chart below we see that even on the lower time-frames the USD/SGD remains undeci…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The Singapore Dollar is trading at 1.3937 right now, exactly 100 pips away from my forecasted price. The picture on the daily charts shows a range-bound March for this currency pair.

We opened the month at 1.4026, the high (so far) stands at 1.4218 while the low was set at 1.3906. We're now entering a cluster of previous levels that may act to slow down the losses and hopefully cause a spurt up in the USD/SGD.

These levels include 1.3962, last October's swing high, followed by the 1.3840 swing high (resistance turns to support) and the 1.3725 swing low set back in 2015.

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fxsurprise8 29 Mar.

UPDATE 2: This for update numero dos! The USD/SGD continues to trade range-bound. We are now quoted at 1.3944, only 7 pips above the price noted in my previous update.

We had some volatility during the last two days for sure, as a high of 1.3985 was hit as well as a low of 1.3914 but ultimately the pair settled back down.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: Some position improvement today. The pair jumped to 1.3989 right now, bringing me somewhat closer to my target.

The USD/SGD is on an upswing the past few days. But overall the mean-reverting nature of this pair continues unabated.

The pair opened March at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. I'm sure you can notice the directionless zig-zag pattern here.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: Mean reversion is still the name of the game in the USD/SGD. This can be clearly seen in the 4 hour chart above that shows the price action during March.

The pair opened the month at 1.4026, rallied to a high of 1.4217 before falling back to a low of 1.3906. We closed on Friday at 1.3971.

This is only 66 pips away from my forecasted price. With a bit of luck and range-bound markets I could get a place in the top 10!

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Not very exciting start of the week for the USD/SGD. First we opened at 1.3973, moved up to 1.3982, only to fall back down to 1.3965.

We are currently quoted at 1.3971, only 2 pips below the weekly open. Nothing decisive as of yet this Sunday, we'll have to wait and see what the trading on Monday brings.

While the current price is fairly close to my forecast (<0.50%) this may not be enough for a good prize this month. I will need the USD/SGD to inch higher a bit tomorrow so wish me luck!

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