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Chinese Yuan Devaluation Brings Volatility

fxsurprise8 Publier 12 aou dans #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #USD/RUB #Trader's Contest

The Bank of China decision to devalue the Yuan for a second time caused major shocks in financial markets. Traders were quick to sell anything that has exposure to China, fearing that the devaluation is because authorities know the real situation better. European indexes are down sharply as are US indexes.
The Dow Index just made a death cross on the daily chart, indicating that the trend has shifted to the short side. This hasn't happened in the last few years.
I tried to play this story by sho…

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Still Holding Long USD/RUB

fxsurprise8 Mis à jour 8 aou dans #Trader's blog #USD/RUB #Russian Ruble #Trader's Contest

I'm still holding my long Russian Ruble trade. It's currently up by exactly 2,500 pips, which is amusing since it's only 0.36% in percentage terms. Total gain of around 1 grand.
Oil sank to new lows on Friday, bringing down the Ruble. Russia is a large exporter of oil/gas. But the mixed NFP result led to USD selling, thereby muting the effect somewhat. Investors contrasted the Jobs print, which was as expected, with a major miss in employee wages earlier in the week, ending with a net negative f…

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Small Gains on a USD/RUB Long

fxsurprise8 Publier 7 aou dans #Trader's blog #USD/RUB #Russian Ruble #Trader's Contest

My only trade today was a long on the Russian Ruble. My AUD shorts got an unlucky stop-out in the aftermath of the jobs report. I decided not to re-enter, which turned out to be the right move as the AUD/JPY is now at 91.89, close to the post-news highs. Not sure why the Aussie is so strong all of sudden. There remain significant headwinds from China, which is their biggest trading partner and largest export market.
I decided on a long USD/RUB because I think that long-term the Russian Ruble wil…

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Russian Ruble to Gain Back Some Ground

fxsurprise8 Publié 29 nov comme Analyse sur USD/RUB, Cible: 49.7111, Date: 2 de janvier, 12:00 GMT dans #Technical analysis #RUB #Russia #Ruble #USD/RUB

It' been a tough year for the Russian Ruble. The currency has lost almost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered western sanctions on its oil and banking sectors. But most importantly, oil fell by 1/3 this year. Over 50% of Russian budget is filled by oil&gas revenue. November was espeically bad with the Ruble losing 16 percent and the move going parabolic.
Such parabolic moves usually indicate that a top may be near. I expect oil prices to stabilize in De…

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Russian Ruble Selloff to Continue

fxsurprise8 Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur USD/RUB, Cible: 37.8900, Date: 1 de octobre, 12:00 GMT dans #Technical analysis #Ruble #USD/RUB

Investors sold the Russian Ruble on Friday after yet another military escalation by Russia in Ukraine. The currency pair hit a post-1998 high of 37.20 but the losses got trimmed during the end of trading.
I expect the rally in the USD/RUB to continue. The EU has given Russia a 1 week deadline to reverse course or face new sanctions. While I think that the Russian central bank will step in to stop the losses at some point, I don't think they can ultimately stop the Ruble from depreciating. On Mar…

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fxsurprise8's Blog

Chinese Yuan Devaluation Brings Volatility

Still Holding Long USD/RUB

Small Gains on a USD/RUB Long

Russian Ruble to Gain Back Some Ground

Russian Ruble Selloff to Continue