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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 108.12, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Decline #Downtrend #Average True Range
The USD/JPY had a remarkable run since the second half of 2016. We saw the pair rally by almost 2,000 pips from the lows to hit 118.65. But in the past few months the gains have stalled and recently the trendline underpinning the move higher has been broken, as you can see on the weekly chart below.
We’re already down by almost 700 pips right now but bodies in motion tend to stay in motion. And currencies in a downtrend tend to continue in that direction. I’m targeting more of the same during A…
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USD/JPY to Head Toward 111.00

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 111.56, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Trendline #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Breakdown #Downtrend #Average True Range
I expect the USD/JPY to retrace a significant portion of its gains. The rally in the pair is reaching unsustainable levels. We’re now up by over 1,500 pips from the November lows. But as can be seen on the chart below, things could be changing. The trendline underpinning this move on the daily charts has been broken.
Our second chart below shows the situation on the lower timeframe charts. Here we see that the momentum has turned to the downside. We have a consensus between these two timeframes…
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Japanese Yen to Gain Back Some Lost Ground

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 109.21, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY
The Japanese Yen got sold aggressively in the aftermath of the US election. The USD/JPY is up by over 1,100 pips from the lows on November 9th. This large move only took 15 days to unfold. By any standard this is aggressive. I think prices have gone up too much, too fast.
My first chart above confirms this. This is a daily chart of the currency pair. We can see that the Stochastic Oscillator was in overbought territory for several days. But this in itself is not enough. We need confirmation. Rec…
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TInna avatar
TInna 1 Dec.

very good!

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More Gains for the Japanese Yen

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 96.16, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #Japan #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Selling #Swing Low #Swing High
The Japanese Yen is slated for more gains against the US Dollar. Look at our first chart below. Notice how for the past four months the bears have been on the offensive, selling every rally and attacking the round 100 figure. The small rectangles on the chart show the tests of this level, a total six of them.
With each test the odds increase that we will see a break below. But if we see a decline, where will prices stop in October? I’m betting on close to 96.16 and here’s why. Not far from 100 …
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USD/JPY Targets Brexit Highs

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 106.71, Date: 3rd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #Trend #USD/JPY #Boj #Japanese Yen #Bounce #Jackson Hole #JPY Crosses #Brexit
The USD/JPY is finally trending up after a long bear market. After some Dollar positive comments at Jackson Hole the pair got a lift. We’re now trading 336 pips higher from the lows marked on August 26th.
Where can we look for a potential target? The average monthly range in this pair has been 520 pips. But that’s low to high, not open to close. A more conservative target would be in the 300 pips range.
On our chart above we see a level that qualifies. The pre-Brexit highs at 106.80 are importa…
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Yen Looks Overbought

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 104.89, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Japan #USD/JPY #Fomc #Us Dollar #Reversal Pattern #Us Economy #Crisis #Japanese Yen #Stochastic
The Yen looks overbought. Normally a safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen got bought up aggressively in the post-Brexit mayhem. But as we can see on the 4 Hour chart below, things are starting to change with prices possibly bottoming out. We have now retraced over 50% of the Brexit related move, with possibly more gains on the way.
There are signs of a bottom on longer-term charts as well. Notice below how the Stochastic has clearly hit oversold territory in the USD/JPY. The Stoch moved below 2…
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USD/JPY in for a Strong Rally

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 115.79, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD/JPY #Rally #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #JPY Weakness #Japanese Recovery #Triple Bottom
The USD/JPY could be in for a strong rally. The pair closed May on a high note, currently at 110.66 from a high of 111.44 yesterday. The daily chart below shows just how consistent this uptrend has been. Notice the nice stair-step climb with little retracement.
Things are looking bullish on the long-term charts as well. Here the USD/JPY has been in a strong uptrend since the end of 2012. In fact the past few months of losses are the exception not the rule. With both the long-term and short-term …
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More Losses for the USD/JPY

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 102.11, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Trend #USD/JPY #Price Action #Japanese Yen #Momentum #Downtrend #Doji
Last month we saw a doji pattern in the USD/JPY. This is usually an indecision pattern. But in this case the Doji has been followed by a large red bar. This breaks the stalemate and potentially signals that more losses are to come.
On the lower 4 hour timefame we can see that the pair has fallen by over 500 pips in the last two days alone. So not only do we have the medium-term trend heading down but so is the momentum.
The average monthly range for the USD/JPY is 479 pips but this of course is …
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Japanese Yen to Stay in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.52, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #USD #USD/JPY #Consolidation #Japanese Yen #Ranging #Yen Strength #Congestion
After a wild first two months of the year, the Japanese Yen has a calmer session in March. The pair closed lower by only 12 pips, forming a doji pattern on the monthly chart. This pattern signals indecision in the market. The market usually moves in a range about 70% of the time and only trends the other 30%.
An added problem for any trends is the active intervention by the Japanese ministry of Finance. Look at the 4h chart below. Notice the the pair keeps getting bought around 111 dollars for 1…
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fxsurprise8 23 Apr.

The pair initially broke below the 111 barrier. But this week the losses are starting to get rewound and the pair slowly inched up to 110. Then on Friday the BOJ released new loan measures that indicate a willingness to do more in terms of easing.

This indicates that my noted intervention pattern from above is intact, even though the Bank didn't directly sell.

On the technical front. we're currently quoted at 111.80 right now. This is still about 72 pips away from my forecast. But with the next BOJ meeting next week, we'll have plenty of volatility to jolt this pair, hopefully to the upside.

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fxsurprise8 26 Apr.

Another update. Things are not looking good today, the USD/JPY is down another 50 pips to 111.30. While the pattern above is still valid, this day to day noise is bringing me further away from my target.

Hopefully the FOMC or BOJ events tomorrow will jolt the pair higher. The Bank of Japan is rumored to add to QE at this meeting. This would be bullish for the USD/JPY, although the long-lasting impact of these interventions is questionable.

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Japanese Yen to Lose More Ground

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 124.8100, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trend #Yen #USD/JPY #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Boj Qe
The Japanese Yen looks set for another leg of losses. In October the USD/JPY closed higher by 74 pips, a relatively small amount. But this doesn't tell the whole story. As we can see on the chart below the pair keeps pushing on the resistance area between the 121 round figure and the August high at 121.73.
With each new test the odds increase that we will eventually see a breakout higher. But where can that take us? Looking at the longer-term charts our target should be near this year's high at …
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