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U.S. dollar strength continues. After USD/JPY break to the upside on Wednesday, USD/CHF followed yesterday. The pair rose above parity level and is currently testing year's high near 1.0050. It's pretty much open space above that with big figures as resistance levels. A break lower in EUR/USD would be helpful, given the correlation between euro and franc.
al_dcdemo's Blog
USD/JPY resilient despite U.S. trade wars escalation
U.S. unveiled new tariffs on China overnight, which caused a sell off in risk assets. China seems reluctant to take concrete counter-measures as they apparently don't want to make things worse. USD/JPY fell about 50 pips overnight but has already recovered and is approaching yesterday's high near 111.30. A break above would see some buy stops triggered and put 112 - 112.5 area into view.
USD/JPY quietly preparing for the next leg
USD/JPY has been trading in a relatively quiet (~90 pips) range this week - a new trend leg in the making. Main event risks are FOMC Minutes later today, U.S./China tariff exchange tomorrow morning and then U.S. labour market report in the afternoon. 100 - 100.25 (includes 200 DMA) is the support and 111 - 111.25 the resistance.
USD/JPY recovers as trade worries subside
Recent development on the trade war front did not lead to a more serious risk-off episode. Apart from the Chinese stock market, which was hit quite hard yesterday, risk assets recovered at least part of the lost ground. USD/JPY bottomed near 109.5 and is now back above 110. 200 DMA is the immediate resistance on the way to 110.5 and 111.
Risk off as trade wars continue
Trump is said to have ordered 200B worth of tariffs on Chinese goods. That's an escalation from previous 50B - 100B clips. Risk markets understandably don't like it, and have sold off. Yen is the preferred currency so far today. USD/JPY fell below 200 DMA and 110, to as low as 109.70. We'll see if we get any follow-through as European markets open.
Bank of Japan maintains easy monetary policy
Bank of Japan concluded the G3 central banks' week. The bank decided to leave monetary policy settings intact (shock!) They will have to do something about that JGB buying pace pledge - unless they intend to average around it over a very long term. USD/JPY is back above 110 big figure and 200 DMA, eyeing May's high.
U.S. dollar gives back gains after hawkish Fed
Fed was arguably more hawkish than expected, now seeing four hikes this year, or cumulative 100 bp. In addition, the bank is going to hold press conferences after every meeting, starting January 2019, which could be seen as more opportunity to hike further, provided that the economy maintains current pace. U.S. dollar spiked higher initially but reversed the very next hour, which is telling. We'll see what European traders have to say before heading to pubs and TV screens, as FIFA World Cup star…
USD/JPY unfazed after Trump-Kim summit
The historical meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and N.K. leader Kim Jong-un went fairly well, with Kim confirming "unwavering commitment" to denuclearise. That will take time of course but should nevertheless provide some tailwind for risk trades. USD/JPY looks bullish just above 200 DMA, ahead of the U.S. CPI report coming up in the afternoon.
USD/JPY snaps back towards the big figure
The latest U.S. labour market report came in strong on most metrics. Yet the dollar failed to make any significant headway in the hours after the release. Friday's weakest currency was the yen, which weakened in early hours that day, despite BOJ slowly moving away from its bond buys. USD/JPY snapped back towards 110, retracing 50% of the recent downswing.
USD/JPY keeps grinding up
After lively sessions yesterday, major currency pairs took a breather overnight. Except for, perhaps, USD/JPY which keeps grinding up, in tandem with U.S. treasuries (10's traded 3.13%). The pair is approaching a major resistance, the trendline drawn off of 2015, 2016 and 2017 highs. Broken 110 level and 200 DMA near 110.15 should now act as a firm support.