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Finally, I've managed to pull-out another profitable trade. I don't know how many of you are aware of the fact that USD/JPY is basically unchanged since beginning of the year as the opening price of 2015 is 119.80. Basically for the entire part of 2015 USD/JPY has moved back and forth around the big psychological number 120.00. The reason behind this trade was that ultimately we're going to see a retest again of the big round number 120.00 and since the short term trend was up I decided to take …
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Waiting for FED Rate Decision
Currently I'm holding two positions in my portfolio which neither of them doesn't seems to move in my direction. I went long USDJPY and if in the initial stage it went in my direction almost 50 pips it reverse and now I'm -60 pips in the red on this position. The same was the case with EURAUD it went in my favor +90 pips and it reverse course and right now it's trading around my BE point.
I'm still hoping they will go in my direction but most likely I would have to wait for the FED to be the tri…
I'm still hoping they will go in my direction but most likely I would have to wait for the FED to be the tri…
Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?
This is just and extracted post from my latest article which you can find it here: Greece next Lehman Brothers Event?
They say the Black Swan events are characterized by rarity and extreme impact and once again the financial markets are proving this to be wrong as theory has nothing to do with reality. Not so long ago we had the SNB event which disrupted the market activ…
- FX Market - Risk Aversion
Markets have consistently experienced " 100-year events" every five years. Paul Tudor Jones
They say the Black Swan events are characterized by rarity and extreme impact and once again the financial markets are proving this to be wrong as theory has nothing to do with reality. Not so long ago we had the SNB event which disrupted the market activ…
USD/JPY Neverending Consolidation
USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level (see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a …
USD/JPY Seasonality, More weakness in April
USD/JPY has been unable to sustain any gains during this year and we have moved in a big range for the most part of the year. Even though we managed to make a marginal new high above 122.00 the momentum slowed down and we're back inside the range. Current range extends from the 122.00 resistance level all the way down to 116.00 level(see Figure 1) where we have a strong support and where I'm expecting price to hold and revers to resume to bigger bullish trend we're in. We're in a very wide range…
Nikkei 225 - USD/JPY Correlation
Last year around the summer time I've made this prediction about Nikkei 225, read more here: Nikkei 225 Will Revive Yen Bearish Trend?
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
Trader Contest Day 1
Hi all,
Even thought I'm not sure I'll be able to compete in this month's Trader Contest I'll at least give it a try and see how things develop. At the time being I don't have in my mind any clear setup and as such I'll be waiting for a better opportunity. The wise thing is to remain long the dollar and best trades to express that view are short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY however I don't think that there are any clear opportunities to engage in any of those trades at current levels. I'm expecting …
Even thought I'm not sure I'll be able to compete in this month's Trader Contest I'll at least give it a try and see how things develop. At the time being I don't have in my mind any clear setup and as such I'll be waiting for a better opportunity. The wise thing is to remain long the dollar and best trades to express that view are short EUR/USD and long USD/JPY however I don't think that there are any clear opportunities to engage in any of those trades at current levels. I'm expecting …
USD/JPY Trade Explanation
In this blog post I want to share the reason behind my short USD/JPY setup, on which I was stopped out at a small loss -7 pips, which in my book is still a BE trade. The reason why I was short was because we open the market with a gap below the 117.20 support level, and even though later we manage to come back above that support there was not much of a follow through.
The 117.20 support level have been tested for so many times that it was obvious that at one point w…
Figure 1. USD/JPY 1h Chart.
The 117.20 support level have been tested for so many times that it was obvious that at one point w…
Fractal Update
It seems that my fractal posted the other day, you can find it here:EUR/USD leadin USD/JPY. FOMC vs NFP has not worked out as planned and my concerns regrading volatility expansion where right and the whole picture was distorted.
So based on that plan I was short not only USD/JPY but took a short GBP/JPY (see Figure 1)as well and even though during Asia session the market has moved down by the time we have entered the European session we experience some wild swing and both of this 2 trade moved …
So based on that plan I was short not only USD/JPY but took a short GBP/JPY (see Figure 1)as well and even though during Asia session the market has moved down by the time we have entered the European session we experience some wild swing and both of this 2 trade moved …
EUR/USD leading USD/JPY. FOMC vs NFP Fractal
Yesterday I was walking through my charts to prepare my analysis for the coming week and I have found an interesting Fractal (see Figure 1)that may help you track the price action on USD/JPY on every level. But even though we're comparing two historic periods with 2 different events (FOMC/NFP) and it may be the case the market reaction on this two events may be different historically the only reason why I trust this fractal is because it's converging with my previous view on USD/JPY that you ca…