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VAIBS1991's Blog

VAIBS1991's Blog

Analyzing USD/JPY.

VAIBS1991 Posted 15 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 116.73, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Bollinger Bands #Rsi

JPY
Japanese economy is continuing moderate pace of recovery. Government is also putting large investments for the year 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games which is likely to have a positive spillover effect on the larger Japanese economy. Though the inflation is not expected to rise substantially any time soon as wage growth is tepid.
USD
US economy is in very good shape and expected to keep up the GDP growth rate in coming quarters of year 2018. It gives Fedral reseve the confidence to go for possibly th…

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Analyzing USD/JPY

VAIBS1991 Posted 13 Sep. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 112.05, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Fibonacci Expansion #Fibonacci Retracement #Trendlines

USD
In USA Federal Reserve of United states of America is likely to keep the Interest Rate unchanged at 1 to 1¼ percent in next monetary policy meeting. In the view of FOMC members the US economy is expected to continue to expand at a moderate pace although uncertainty persists about low inflation and fiscal and government policies. Fed is expecting the ongoing job gains to continue to support the growth of incomes. It is also likely to keep the dot plot unchanged which shows three rate hike in …

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USD/JPY is on a crossroad.

VAIBS1991 Posted 7 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 106.20, Date: 2 von October, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #Trendline #USD/JPY #Fibo Expansion #Fibo Retracement

USD:
US GDP Growth rose to 2.6 % (YoY) in second quarter of 2017 which marks a robust improvement from the first quarter of 2017 GDP growth rate of 1.4 % (YoY). The pick up in GDP growth rate is mainly driven by higher consumer spending and rising exports. Optimism about domestic economic conditions is giving the consumers the confidence to spend more as they expect the future income to rise while improvement in world economy is boosting exports as the demand for American products rise. Governme…

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Predicting USD/JPY

VAIBS1991 Posted 13 July as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 115.20, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Fibonacci Expansion #Trendlines

USD
In the United States the Federal Reserve has a much more positive outlook about future economic growth in US economy. After some softness in Q1 of 2017 the GDP growth is picking up in 2nd Quarter in USA. If we look across sectors we see optimistic indications overall. Recently released data about housing activity has shown rise in home construction. In recent months consumer credit has seen a remarkable rise as the election of Mr. Trump as a President of United States of America has generate…

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Predicting USD/JPY.

VAIBS1991 Posted 20 June as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 114.81, Date: 1 von August, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY

USD
In the United States the Federal Reserve raised the interest rates from the band of 0.75%-1.00% to the band of 1.00%-1.25% in it's meeting held on 14th June 2017 while also keeping the possibility of one more rate hike this year open. This development has taken the market by surprise as the recent data related to economy was coming below the market expectation. But given the Federal Reserve's confidence in US economy the traders seem to have turned bullish on USD after the meeting. I am expe…

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USD/JPY Analysis.

VAIBS1991 Posted 29 Mar. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 114.57, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY

The Japanese economy is advancing at moderate which is better than earlier quarters of negative to flat growth. The growth is boosted by exports, government spending and private non-residential investment while household consumption is flat. Domestic demand is likely to follow an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending being maintained in both the household and corporate sectors, on the back of highly accommodative financial conditions and fiscal spending through the government's …

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Anticipating USD/JPY .

VAIBS1991 Posted 13 Feb. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 117.23, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ichimoku #Bollinger Band

US dollar has been trading sideways with a downward bias since the start of the year amid a lack of clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policies. Forex market are pricing in a rate hike in Federal fund rates only after June 2017 FOMC meeting. As a result I am not expecting much appreciation of US dollar against JPY for next couple of months.
If we look at Japanese economy The Bank of Japan has left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1 percent at its January 2017 meeting, as widely e…

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USD/JPY to remain sideways.

VAIBS1991 Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 116.10, Date: 1 von March, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Ichimoku

I think the dollar is strong not because European, Japanese and Mexican officials want a weak currency, though some clearly do,but because of the incentive structure created by actual policy. In particular, the divergence of monetary policy, broadly understood, has arguably been the single-biggest force lifting the US dollar.
There is some anticipation of a more supportive policy mix. Fiscal policy has been neutral to a drag in recent years, but it has been clear since last summer that regardle…

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Is Mr Trump rallying the USD/JPY?

VAIBS1991 Posted 19 Nov. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 114.20, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY

Tide seems to have turned for USD/JPY from bearish of last one year to bullish for at least a year or two. The major fuel for the turnaround seems to be the expectations around Mr Trumps fiscal expansionary policies. If Mr Trump announces measures like increase in Infrastructure spending and promised tax cuts, US govt will have to issue new debt. It will most probably increase fiscal deficit. The very likely hood of such policies may cause the Federal Reserve to tighten the monetary policy soone…

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