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Bank of Canada hiked its overnight rate to from 1.25% to 1.50% yesterday. Rate statement was more hawkish that many expected and the initial reaction was to buy Canadian dollars, with USD/CAD quickly testing support at 1.3060. However, a strong round of broad U.S. dollar buying followed, which took the pair 150 pips higher.
al_dcdemo's Blog
USD/CAD at the highest levels this year
A slower start to the week - major currencies gapped lower at the open but then mostly recovered. Canadian dollar retraced 50 pips of the last week's 260-pip rally. Technicals, trade concerns and falling oil prices should keep USD/CAD supported ahead of OPEC meetings and CPI / Retail Sales combo at the end of the week.
Canadian dollar rallies on BOC, reverses on tariffs
Bank of Canada caught many off guard on Wednesday. The bank kept overnight rate unchanged at 1.25% but released a hawkish statement, that now puts July hike firmly on the table. However, trade wars continue with steel and aluminium tariffs, which is a headwind for Canadian dollar. USD/CAD 1.30 is the bull/bear line in sand.
USD/CAD preparing for the next leg
USD/CAD has been trading in a relatively tight range during the past two weeks. 1.28 - 1.2810 is the range support and 1.29 - 1.2910 the resistance. A case could be made for continuation in either direction but largely depends on whether U.S. dollar can sustain its momentum. The longer the range lasts, the more orders accumulate on both sides and the stronger the breakout move, or so the theory goes.
USD/CAD a bit higher after the BOC
Bank of Canada left overnight rate at 1.25%, as widely expected. They see higher rates over time but will proceed with caution. USD/CAD jumped, found resistance at 1.265 and then stabilized about 75 pips above pre-release levels. The pair's currently trading right at 200 DMA and above the initial support at 1.26.
USD/CAD broke below 200 DMA
U.S. inflation report came in solid yesterday, FOMC Minutes were hawkish. Headlines regarding military intervention in Syria, however, have kept risk assets contained, as have renewed trade concerns. Canadian dollar is one exception, had a great week so far. USD/CAD fell about 270 pips (high to low) but momentum appears to be easing into 1.25 support. Broken 200 DMA should now act as an initial resistance.
Canadian dollar could extend gains this week
Canadian dollar has seen some relief on prospects for NAFTA deal to be announced as early as next week. USD/CAD is testing waters below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. A successful break would target 1.25. Initial resistance is at 1.28 and stronger one near 1.285.
USD/CAD pulls back ahead of the FOMC
Canadian dollar gained about 50 pips overnight, as U.S. relaxed terms on some parts of new NAFTA proposal. It's also technicals. The pair encountered resistance at 61.8% retracement of 2017 decline and 2016 - 2017 trendline, with USD/CAD buyers booking some profits ahead of the FOMC decision later today. 1.2975 - 1.30 is the initial support and 1.3050 - 1.3075 the resistance.
USD/CAD uptrend resumes, supported by fundamentals
Canadian dollar fell yesterday after dovish speech and comments by the BOC governor Poloz. U.S. president Trump fired secretary of state Tillerson and a couple of other officials also weighed on the currency. USD/CAD rallied about 150 pips low to high but stalled ahead of 100 WMA, which is backed by the big figure at 1.30. A successful break would target 61.8% retracement of the 2017 decline at 1.3130. 1.29 - 1.2925 is the initial support.
CAD gains along with firm inflation and better risk sentiment
Canada saw some better than expected inflation data on Friday which were welcomed by USD/CAD sellers. The pair would have probably been trading much lower if it weren't for uncertainty regarding NAFTA, U.S. politics and Canadian housing market, all of which keep the Bank of Canada in cautious mode. 1.26 is the initial support and stronger one closer to 1.25.