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Finally Some Calm for the Loonie?

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Giu as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2954, Date: 1 di Agosto, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD #Oil #Volatility #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Range #Brexit
Could we finally see some stabilization in this pair? A usually calmer currency, the USD/CAD has seen unprecedented volatility in the past two years, mainly due to oil swinging around wildly. Oil prices fell to a low of $25 this January only to roar back with a 100% gain to $50 dollars per barrel.
But long-term the Loonie is usually a calm pair. Further more on the 4 Hour chart above we can finally see some signs of stabilization and a range-bound market. Once the oil volatility dies down I expe…
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Calmer Month for Canadian Dollar

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2552, Date: 1 di Giugno, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Trends #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie #Oversold #Calmer
The USD/CAD had a wild ride for the past year. Initially it rallied strongly on US Dollar strength then fell as Oil (a major CAD export) recovered. On the first pic we can see that after a the large decline the charts are finally flashing oversold. Furthermore we've now ticked up from the 20 Stochastic level and heading higher, added confirmation that we may see an end to the losses.
An added supporting factor for a bounce higher is that the long-term trend is still up. On the second chart we ca…
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wisdom_consultant 25 Mag

maybe...

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USD/CAD to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.3840, Date: 1 di Maggio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Rally #Reversal Pattern #Canadian Dollar #Oil Price #Stochastic
The Canadian Dollar has been one of the big winners from the rally in oil prices this year. The USD/CAD saw most of the post-Fed December gains evaporate and is currently trading at 1.2986, over 1600 pips below the January highs at 1.4688.
Notice the Stochastic indicator on the daily chart below. It has been in oversold territory for over one month now since late February. But things may be changing, notice how the indy is finally turning back higher above the 20 level, signalling a potential r…
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SvetLena 31 Mar

good

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Volatility in USD/CAD to Die Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mag as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2455, Date: 1 di Luglio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Oil #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Us Economy #Loonie #Wti CMD/USD
The USD/CAD experienced unprecedented volatility this year, largely due to the oil price shock. Prices first fell over 50 percent to below $50/barrel, then rallied 50% from here to just above $64 dollars. Canada is a large oil exporter. You can see these swings on the weekly chart below.
But with Oil starting to enter a range between $50 and $60 dollar per barrel, the USD/CAD should stabilize as well. Canada may also benefit from the stronger US economy.
On the technical front, we seem to be top…
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fxsurprise8 1 Lug

My prediction has been spot on so far. The USD/CAD bounced right at the 1.2500 mark then fell over 370 pips to a low of 1.2170. But again as predicted that volatility will decline, the lows were quickly bought up and the currency pair rallied back to the 1.2500. The total monthly range for USD/CAD is 436 pips so far.

Prices are currently trading at 1.2476, about 21 pips above my target. Hoping for some US Dollar weakness into the end of the month.

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Loonies to Catch a Break

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dic as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1621, Date: 2 di Febbraio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar
The Loonie got sold as commodities prices (especially oil) got clobbered this year. The pair lost 180 pips in December alone. But cracks are starting to show in the oil/CAD relationship. As we can see from the charts below, the USD/CAD stayed flat since December 15th.
But Oil continued to make new lows. Since December 15th the black gold fell by close to 5 percent. This signals that lower oil may not translate into CAD losses in the future. A look at the daily chart shows the Stochastic Oscillat…
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Volailtiy in the Loonie to Go Down

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1428, Date: 2 di Gennaio, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Us Dollar #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The Loonie experienced a lot of volatility during the past few months. Traders sold Canadian Dollars as oil prices plummeted 33% in 4 months. Canada is a large producer and exporter of oil. The USD/CAD rallied from a low of 1.0620 on July 3rd to a high of 1.1466 on November 5th.
Since then however, prices have stalled. The pair even reversed some of the losses, falling to 1.1191 on November 21st. The last two days have brought us renewed selling after OPEC producers didn't take any action to cur…
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Loonie to Fail Test at 1.1200

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Set as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1190, Date: 3 di Novembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Usdcad #Canadian Dollar #Loonie
The USD/CAD has a stellar September that saw it rally 326 pips. Prices are currently pushing right on the 1.1200 round figure.
This is somewhat of an important milestone for the currency pair. Back in March of this year, prices spiked at 1.1278 then fell over 600 pips. Given the strong rally so far I don't expect a major selloff but I do think that the gains for the USD are overdone. Thus I'm betting on prices being subdued below 1.1200.
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5 Commenti
Stix avatar
Stix 1 Ott

Best wishes for October. :) :)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 1 Ott

Yes!!! I support you) And have a good day!!) 1 October)

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fxsurprise8 27 Ott

While the 1.1200 level didn't hold, the rally slowed down substantially in October. The USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.1250, 60 pips away from my target. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday may push the pair back below 1.1200.

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fxsurprise8 29 Ott

Good Canadian figures and a weak US Dollar pushed the USD/CAD to my target...and then the pair fell some more to completely overshoot 1.1190. We are currently trading at 1.1138, still a long ways of from 1.1190

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fxsurprise8 30 Ott

The FOMC decision helped my ''position'' by jump-staring a US Dollar rally. The US Central Bank issued a surprisingly hawkish statement, upping its assessment of the US economy. According to the FOMC, there has been a substantial improvement in the jobs outlook and the underlying strength in the broader US economy.

The USD/CAD moved up from 1.1130 to 1.1224 in the aftermath of the Fed statement. Since then the pair has weakened somewhat and is currently trading at 1.1196, just 6 pips away from my target!

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Loonie to Stay Put

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Ago as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.0870, Date: 1 di Ottobre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Loonie
The Loonie has spent all of August in a tight 190 pips range between a high of 1.0997 and a low of 1.0810. I expect the pair to stay put in September.
We are currently right in the middle of this congestion area at 1.0870. I see no impetus that would cause the currency pair to breakout in either direction. On the top end, the 1.1000 is an important resistance level that has been tested on two separate occasions in 2014. On the lower end, the August 29 pin bar formed by the Loonie's reversal shou…
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Loonie to Stay Around 1.09

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Lug as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.0901, Date: 1 di Settembre, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #CAD #USD/CAD #Loonie
The Canadian Dollar is trading mixed in 2014. After a flat January, prices fell to reach a low of 1.0620 by June. But since reaching that low, USD/CAD has rallied almost 280 pips and is now knocking on the 1.09 figure.
I think this is the end of the line for the Loonie. The 1.0960 swing high should provide some resistance going forward. This coupled with a slow summer session and the general lack of movement in this pair should keep prices suppressed.
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3 Commenti
Polinka avatar
Polinka 5 Ago

well done!

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fxsurprise8 30 Ago

My analysis on the Loonie proved mostly correct, although the pair did rally to 1.0997 before falling back. We are currently quoted at 1.0871, still a long ways off from my 1.09 target. The 1.09 to 1.10 area is proving to be significant resistance for the bulls.

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fxsurprise8 31 Ago

The recent CFTC report shows that net longs CAD have decreased sightly from 7K to 6K. Hopefully this will translate into some gains for the USD in the next few days.

The start of next week will likely be slow for the USD/CAD, as both the USA and Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Labor Day on Monday.

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