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USDCAD Struggles at Major Monthly Resistance

Jignesh Publié 30 avr comme Analyse sur USD/CAD, Cible: 1.2007, Date: 1 de juin, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Usdcad #Channel #Pullback #Support And Resistance #Candlesticks #Elliottwave #Trendlines #Fibonacci Retracements #Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Overview
USDCAD Has been struggling to take out Major Monthly Resistance since it first approached the area at the beginning of the year. The USD being in a long term uptrend caused the pair to consolidate in that area for several months. The month of April however, has shown an engulfing Monthly Candle which supports the idea of a larger pullback taking place.
Levels
1.2797/1.2800 - Jan 2015 Highs / Monthly Resistance (Late 2008) / Monthly Resistance
1.2475/1.2525 - Monthly Channel Upside Resis…
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Jignesh 14 mai

The fib levels from (x) to (a) has a confluence at the 23.6% fib which comes in at 1.2007.  That area is a technical level which has been marked above and is also the target for this analysis.  That will be the first area to watch for to the upside for a rejection and continuation of downtrend.

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Jignesh 15 mai

The retracement has continued today.  The important level 1.2007 also the 23.6% retracement was taken out in early trading.  Upside Fib targets are now the 50% fib at 1.2050, but it is more likely that we see the 61.8 Fib level at 1.2080 before the selling resumes to complete the final leg.

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Jignesh 20 mai

The retracement has continued higher with fairly strong momentum as well.  Today the pair is capped by it's 88.8% retracement.  This level is the last level to hold, if it does not, the existing count would be invalidated and a revised count would need to be looked at.

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Jignesh 20 mai

The 88.8 fib comes in at 1.2242

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Jignesh 22 mai

USDCAD has been holding at the 88.8 Fib.  Today has several fundamental risk events that can add some volatility, and will be looking for a move down here to confirm that this area is in fact holding and we now continue the downtrend, and mark this wave as (b).

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USDCAD to continue correcting against the H4 Trend

Jignesh Publié 31 aou comme Analyse sur USD/CAD, Cible: 1.0709, Date: 1 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Trend #USD/CAD #Corrective Wave #Elliott Wave #Fibonacci Retracement #Flat Structure
USDCAD Looks like it may be continuing it's trend to the upside from last year, after spending much of the time this year correcting.
  • So far we can see 3 waves to the downside, with a flat correction ending at the 50% of the move to the upside
  • The retracement on the first leg up is usually deep, indicating a high possibility of a double correction
  • Previous support at the 76.4% marks an ideal spot for a reversal

USDCAD - 4H Wave Count

As per the above chart, there are 3 waves to the upside mar…
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2 Commentaires
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Jignesh 3 sep

With CAD data coming up within the next 24 hours, I expect the 1.0950 level to hold to complete the X wave, however, as long as the pair stays below the 1.10 handle this view remains valid.

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Jignesh 22 sep

The pair made a new high, indicating that the correction was a single correction and not a double.  The wave count is no longer marked as WXY but a simple ABC.  There are already 5 swings to the upside and the pair has started to pull back, but it remains bullish against  1.0808 and it is not likely to see any further downside.  The setup is invalidated and I do not expect the targets to be hit.

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