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Singapore Dollar Resumes Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年12月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.44744, 予想日: 1日2月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Range Bound #Elections #Mean Reversion #Congestion #Trump Rally
The Singapore Dollar has resumed range-bound trading. On the first chart below the part in the rectangle shows the total monthly range during December. Notice how small that is compared to the previous few months. The open to close range shows an even clearer picture. Here the USD/SGD is at 151 pips during December, compared to 320 pips during November.
The uptrend in seems to be slowly losing steam.In fact during the last half of December not only has the rally slowed down, it has stopped altog…
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Singapore Dollar Will Return to Range-bound Trading

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年11月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.4345, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar #Us Dolar #Congestion
I expect to see the Singapore Dollar to return to range-bound trading and here's why. Despite the volatility during the past few weeks, this pair is still well inside the range seen since 2015, as can be seen on the chart below. We are now nearing the crucial resistance level at 1.4441. I don't think the pair will continue higher.
Look at the 8,3,3 Stochastic. It's flashing a value of over 80, signalling overbought market territory. The same can be seen on our next pic below, on the 4 Hour chart…
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fxsurprise8 2016年12月28日

My forecast is not doing so far with today's gains in the US Dollar. The USD/SGD is now trading at 1.4502, clearly above the crucial resistance at 1.4441.

Interesting that during most of the month the USD/SGD was trading range-bound, which can be seen by the small gains made compared to November.

Unfortunately for me, the pair seems to have stabilized in this congestion right above my forecasted price. Still, with the price just over 150 pips and 1 percent away from my forecast, all is not lost. I just need 1-2 days of weakness in the USD to 'turn a profit' here.

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Aussie to Rally Higher

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/USD, 予想レート: 0.798, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD #USA #Australia #Trend #AUD/USD #Breakout #Us Dollar #Gains
I'm betting on the AUD/USD heading higher during November and here's why. On the first chart below we see a slow but steady trend higher for the Aussie.
On the second chart we notice the constant pressure by the bulls on the resistance area. With each thrust the odds increase that eventually they will break the dam and push prices upward. I'm placing my bet at 1.7980. This is just below the 1.8000 round figure and yet within the bounds of the monthly ATR for this pair.
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Range-bound Movement for Singapore Dollar to Continue

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年10月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3915, 予想日: 1日12月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Range Bound #Range Box
I'm expecting the range-bound movement in the Singapore Dollar to continue. Reason number one if the chart below. Here we see that we're trading little changed since the middle of 2015. We're now quoted at 1.3914, only 41 pips away from the mid-point mark between the high and low during the past 2 years.
If that point didn't underscore how constrained the USD/SGD has been, then maybe a lower timeframe chart will. On the 4 Hour chart below we can see the pair stalling after large gains made durin…
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Seven-Year Uptrend to Continue

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USA500.IDX/USD, 予想レート: 2269.0001, 予想日: 1日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Bullish #Stocks #Sp500 #Rally #Us Economy #Usa500 IDX/USD #Us Stock Index #V Shaped Recovery #Seven Year Bull Run
The seven-year uptrend in the SP500 is set to continue. Look at the monthly chart below. This US Stock Index is now in one of the longest bull runs in history. Of course eventually the party will end. But until it does, it would be unwise to bet on red.
On the second chart below we can see a shorter-term view of the market. Notice the classic V-shaped pattern below. This is a bullish pattern. It signals that the bears have been trapped by the sudden price rise. More gains should follow from her…
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Calmer Days for the Singapore Dollar

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2016年03月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.3478, 予想日: 1日5月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USA #USD/SGD #Singapore #Range #Singapore Dollar
It's been an unusually wild month for the USD/SGD. The US dollar losses pushed the from 1.4058 to 1.3477. On the chart below we can see this steady decline we've been having this month.
But let's zoom out a bit. On the weekly chart below we can see that the latest decline has only partially erased the Dollar gains. In fact if we draw a Fibonacci retracement from the last major swing low to the last major swing high, we get a 50% value around 1.3401. It's not a coincidence that today the pair bou…
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さらに3 のコメントを見る
s_amira avatar
s_amira 2016年04月28日

I wish you good luck in all you forecasts!

hrustiashka avatar
hrustiashka 2016年04月28日

Good luck!

Yulia10 avatar
Yulia10 2016年04月29日

very good article!

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fxsurprise8 2016年04月29日

Not a good day for my forecast as the USD/SGD is now testing yesterday's lows. We're trading at 1.3418, exactly 60 pips away from the target.

Earlier in the session we tested 1.3450 but the bears managed to win that battle. My forecast has been spot on so far, that 1.3401 Feb level is capping the losses in the pair.

But as always with these contests, you need a bit of luck to come out on top. And as mentioned in my original post, we have two conflicting trends here battling it out, longterm long and short-term shorts.

Thus it's not a surprise to see a lot of volatility intra-day.

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fxsurprise8 2016年05月01日

A late day rally in this pair helped to take prices a bit higher to 1.3440. Then I took a ''weekend hit'' as low liquidity spiked the spreads and pushed the bid downward to 1.3434.

This is around 0.3% away from my forecasted price. Not great but could potentially land me in the top five.

Overall the prediction was solid and the 50% Fib proved a strong area of support despite some selling pressure. After a volatile month like March, some consolidation was to be expected so it's not a surprise to see that prices closed barely changed in April.

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USD/JPY to Crack Under Pressure

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/JPY, 予想レート: 116.300, 予想日: 2日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Japan #USD/JPY #Stock Market #Us Dollar #Japanese Yen #Risk Off #Sell Off
The Japanese Yen has been one of the major winners from the current stock market rout. This traditionally risk-off currency has benefited in August and September as the world's stock markets entered a correction phase. In August the USD/JPY fell by 274 pips while last month the pair lost a further 120 pips. We are currently consolidating within a larger downtrend, this is generally a trend-continuing pattern.
I expect that this downward trend will continue going into October. Seasonally, we see …
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The Back of USD/SGD Rally Likely Broken

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年09月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/SGD, 予想レート: 1.422, 予想日: 2日11月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD #USA #USD/SGD #Rally #Us Dollar #Singapore #Singapore Dollar #Trendline Break
The U.S. Dollar gained over 7 percent against its Singapore counterpart since May of this year. The rally has taken a surprisingly clear upward trend. But as can be seen on the chart below, this trend has been broken by a trendline break in the middle of September.
While we have since climbed back above the line, the pair failed to make headway. The second top at 1.4333 is close the first at 1.4296. While this isn't a double top formation, the strong sell-off at the new highs indicates that the …
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EURo to Decline Towards 1.1000

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年06月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.1015, 予想日: 3日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Euro #Europe #EUR/USD #Greece #Us Dollar #Grexit
The Euro will decline toward 1.1000. While the currency pair remains overbought, I think the coming summer season will dampen some of the sell-off. The true Euro losses will be seen in late August, early September. Why am I betting on more losses? Well the mess is Greece is one reason but since this is a technical analysis contest, let's stick to technicals. The chart below shows the trend for the single currency, unmistakeably down.
The EUR/USD has repeatedly failed to break above the 1.1400 ma…
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fxsurprise8 2015年07月30日

The Euro resumed its sell-off in July. Each rally has been used by bears to load up on the cheap. We are currently quoted at 1.0930, because we overshoot my 1.1015 target.

But with the summer dull-drums upon us, I expect the EUR/USD to rally back higher. The trend is down but I think the moves will be smaller and more range-bound. On the daily chart we are getting into oversold territory according to the RSI and Stochastic (8,3,3). Hopefully this means we will see a move higher soon.

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fxsurprise8 2015年08月03日

The Euro continues to swing widely around the 1.1000 handle. On Friday we broke higher by over 100 pips and hit 1.1113. But by the end of the session, the single currency retreated back to 1.0983. We are currently quoted at 1.0981, still about 25 pips away from my target.

As I explained in my post above, round numbers like 1.1000 can act as magnets for currency pairs, so it's no surprise to see the Euro oscillate above and below this important figure. Hopefully this effect will continue into the end of the contest and the EUR/USD drifts higher towards my forecast.

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Volatility in USD/CAD to Die Down

fxsurprise8 投稿日: 2015年05月31日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CAD, 予想レート: 1.2455, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USA #Oil #USD/CAD #Canada #Us Dollar #Us Economy #Loonie #Wti CMD/USD
The USD/CAD experienced unprecedented volatility this year, largely due to the oil price shock. Prices first fell over 50 percent to below $50/barrel, then rallied 50% from here to just above $64 dollars. Canada is a large oil exporter. You can see these swings on the weekly chart below.
But with Oil starting to enter a range between $50 and $60 dollar per barrel, the USD/CAD should stabilize as well. Canada may also benefit from the stronger US economy.
On the technical front, we seem to be top…
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fxsurprise8 2015年07月01日

My prediction has been spot on so far. The USD/CAD bounced right at the 1.2500 mark then fell over 370 pips to a low of 1.2170. But again as predicted that volatility will decline, the lows were quickly bought up and the currency pair rallied back to the 1.2500. The total monthly range for USD/CAD is 436 pips so far.

Prices are currently trading at 1.2476, about 21 pips above my target. Hoping for some US Dollar weakness into the end of the month.

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