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Swiss franc benefits from safe haven flows

al_dcdemo Posted 8 June  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Nfp Report #D1 Chart #U S Dollar Weakness #UK EU Referendum
Swissie has been one of the big movers in the past few days. There were no particular drivers cited but U.S. dollar weakness after Friday's NFP report and flight to safety in the run up to UK EU referendum are certainly two of them.
The pair lost 250 pips in three days and more than 300 from the top, set in May near 0.9950. It is back below the three daily moving averages and is currently testing 2011 - 2016 trendline with 100 WMA (0.9625) just below. 50 DMA is the initial resistance.
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Mostly sideways action to start the week

al_dcdemo Updated 23 May  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #U S Dollar #D1 Chart #UK EU Referendum #G7 Currencies #Central Bank Meetings
Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that.
Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).
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GBP/USD to jump on no Brexit no Fed hike

al_dcdemo Posted 21 May as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4825, Date: 1st of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range #UK EU Referendum
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows se…
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al_dcdemo 6 June

UPDATE 5: Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries. There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report.

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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 6: We have seen some risk-off in the markets today with equity indices and JPY pairs lower. Yen, Swiss franc and U.S. dollar have been the preferred currencies. Latest Brexit poll showed Leave ahead (55% vs. 45%) and that prompted a 150 pip decline in Cable and a 200 pip fall in GBP/JPY. Commodity currencies have continued yesterday's pullback as did the oil while the gold remains supported. Canadian labour market data came in better than expected but the post-release dip was quickly bought into in the current environment.

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al_dcdemo 17 June

UPDATE 7: Cable staged an impressive reversal yesterday, sadly after the killing of a British MP, a supporter of the Remain campaign. A big part of it was probably just profit taking in GBP/JPY after stops below 150 were cleared all the way to 145. Cable posted a hammer-like reversal on the daily chart and followed through overnight. 1.43 - 1.4350 is the next stronger support (May low, 100 DMA, broken February - April trendline) and then 1.4450 - 1.45 (includes 50 DMA). 1.42 is the initial support.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 8: In yesterday's UK EU referendum, 52% of Britons supported Leave and 48% Remain. Though not completely unexpected, the result was surprising, particularly given that the last couple of opinion polls showed Remain ahead. The outcome sent jitters through capital markets and indeed currencies. Of 28 G7 currency pairs, GBP/JPY was the one with the biggest daily range - a whopping 2700 pips. Repercussions from this once-in-a-decade kind of event will likely be felt for weeks, if not months.

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al_dcdemo 29 June

UPDATE 9: After gaps lower of varying degrees on Monday and initial signs of a follow-through, it looked like we would see continuation moves this week. Instead, currency pairs started to retrace Friday's losses while only Cable made new lows before heading higher on improved risk sentiment. It is not clear when and how will Britain exit the E.U. but the fact that they're in no hurry to invoke Article 50 seems to provide some calm to the markets at the moment despite prolonged uncertainty.

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Loonie the best performer so far this week

al_dcdemo Posted 13 May  in #Trader's blog #Volatility #USD/CAD #Range Trading #Weekly Range #D1 Chart #UK EU Referendum
Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better.
I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players (including central banks) to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in th…
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fxsurprise8 13 May

time to buy?

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al_dcdemo 14 May

I think U.S. dollar longs are the correct play in this environment. As for Loonie, I think it will revisit 1.33 in the days/weeks ahead.

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