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New Zealand dollar was the strongest major currency last week, refusing to follow Australian dollar lower, as it usually does. NZD/USD corrected 38.2% of the 550-pip sell-off in April and May. Where to from here depends, as always, on U.S. dollar and risk sentiment. All things being equal, the pair could be headed to retest 0.715 area in the days/weeks ahead.
al_dcdemo's Blog
Yen strength to start the week
Themes from last week continue. Yen is the strongest, followed by the U.S. dollar. AUD/JPY broke to new lows and NZD/JPY is likely to follow soon. CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY already did it last with EUR/JPY not far behind. GBP/JPY is the only one standing with a decent buffer or does it have some catch-up to do?
U.S. dollar falls after inflation and retail sales reports
Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected.
Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against al…
Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across U.S. dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar is closing the week lower against al…
USD/CHF fails above 0.98
U.S. dollar has been a laggard so far this week while euro gained some traction after it reclaimed 1.175. That's a recipe for Swiss franc gains while Catalan and North Korea crises still simmer in the background.
USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.
USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.
U.S. dollar rallies as Fed stays on track
Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
Market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.
Aussie rallies on Trump and jobs
Aussie rallied hard overnight. First, U.S. president Trump said that he likes low interest rates and how the dollar is too strong. Then, a much better than expected Australian labour market report hit the wires. The economy created 74.5K full time jobs in March with participation rate also up.
The pair posted an outside up day off of 0.7475 - 0.75 support yesterday and is following that up with a long green candle today. It has surged above both 100 and 200 DMA, up to March 28th low at 0.7585, w…
The pair posted an outside up day off of 0.7475 - 0.75 support yesterday and is following that up with a long green candle today. It has surged above both 100 and 200 DMA, up to March 28th low at 0.7585, w…
EURo reverses post-FOMC gains
It has been all about the yen today with USD/JPY tumbling 240 pips, to the lowest since August 2014, after the BOJ left policy unchanged. There has also been strong demand for the U.S. dollar with the euro and the franc both losing more than a cent from their highs.
EUR/USD completely reversed post-FOMC gains and is trading on the lowest level since the NFP report earlier in the month. December - June trendline is the first stronger support level to watch before 1.1070 - 1.11 area (May low, 200 …
EUR/USD completely reversed post-FOMC gains and is trading on the lowest level since the NFP report earlier in the month. December - June trendline is the first stronger support level to watch before 1.1070 - 1.11 area (May low, 200 …
U.S. dollar reclaims some ground overnight
Friday's move after much weaker than expected NFP report may have been a bit overdone and the U.S. dollar started to retrace some of its losses in the Asian session. Aussie and Cable were the two that gave back the most with the latter selling off on renewed Brexit worries.
There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report…
There was little movement in the Euro and the Swissie while the Yen, the Loonie and the Kiwi gave back around 50 pips each. We won't have to wait for too long to see a reaction of European traders to the aforementioned report…
Mostly sideways action to start the week
Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that.
Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).
Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23rd).
Relatively quiet start to the week
Major currencies opened the week with small gaps mostly against the U.S. dollar and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected.
Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.
Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.