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Bit of a turnaround in GBP pairs

AdamFx42 Publier 5 juin  dans #Trader's blog #Turnaround #GBP Short
A bit of a turnaround in Gbp sentiment today
I was short GbpAud, GbpJpy and Gbp Usd last night
and I was up about 25K last night
This morning I saw my winnings disappear as Gbp strengthened
I am suddenly down 25K ...
Gbp pairs are still below resistance levels
and technically they should be moving down
so I will hang on for now
I am now short GbpUsd, GbpAud and GbpNzd
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USD/CHF will continue to grind up

al_dcdemo Publié 30 déc comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 1.0125, Date: 1 de février, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Breakout #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Pullback #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Support #EUR/CHF Floor Removal #Monthly Descending Trendline
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 11 jan

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Franc gained nearly 70 pips against the dollar and briefly pierced below 0.99 before surging back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 13 jan

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the franc, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair (USD/CHF) is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near parity. Previous Week High (1.0125) is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 18 jan

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 22 jan

UPDATE 8: ECB left interest rates unchanged at today's meeting. However, there were some strong hints about further policy easing to come in March. President Mario Draghi expressed concerns about downside risks stemming from recent developments in financial and commodity markets and their influence on inflation outlook. Mirroring a sell-off in Euro, Swissie jumped about 100 pips and then added another 20 after an initial pullback. Although violated, strong 1.0125 level held and remains the first obstacle to overcome on the way up.

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al_dcdemo 25 jan

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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USD/CHF momentum to continue

al_dcdemo Publié 21 nov comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 1.0325, Date: 1 de janvier, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Breakout #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Momentum #Bullish Outlook #Turnaround #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor in January 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-announcement range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA and recently broke above 100 month SMA and the descending trendline drawn off of 2003, 2005,…
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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 3: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 4: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 déc

UPDATE 5: After taking out year's high and trading to the highest level since 2010 last week, the pair pulled back. It traded sideways since the beginning of the week but sold off sharply following the end of yesterday's European session. There was likely some position squaring ahead of today's ECB meeting involved. Macro direction is still to the upside. Shorter term one will depend on the ECB today and the Fed in two weeks but there's always the SNB to support it. If the pullback continues, parity is the level to watch as it coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the last upswing.

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al_dcdemo 10 déc

UPDATE 6: Swissie's daily range of nearly 400 pips on the ECB day was the largest since March and the second largest since the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January. In line with the Euro strength, the pair extended its pullback and convincingly broke below 50 DMA yesterday. It is currently stalling above 100 DMA and 61.8% retracement of the October - November upswing. 200 DMA and 76.4% retracement are found about 150 pips lower. 0.9950 - 1.000 area shall now act as a resistance in the near term.

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al_dcdemo 29 déc

UPDATE 7: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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USD/CHF rally is gaining strength

al_dcdemo Publié 31 oct comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9975, Date: 1 de décembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Parity #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 highs…
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al_dcdemo 18 nov

UPDATE 4: Swissie broke above the March high (~1.0130) in yesterday's trading and rose to the highest level since SNB abandoned EUR/CHF floor on January 15th. Year's high (~1.0290) is the next target. After that, some resistance is expected into 1.05 level and then at July/August 2010 highs near 1.0650. Support is expected at 1.01 and more at the parity level (1.00).

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al_dcdemo 22 nov

UPDATE 5: Swiss franc was the loser of the week as it lost a cent and a quarter against the dollar. Weekly range was worth a cent and three quarters. The pair is still carried by technical momentum that has been in place since the current upswing began in mid October. The level the pair is trading at is the highest since SNB decided to discontinue EUR/CHF floor in January.

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al_dcdemo 23 nov

UPDATE 6: As is usual, there's little of note on the calendar for the week ahead coming out from Switzerland. U.S., however, will report several important data points: Prelim GDP, CB Consumer Confidence and (Core Durable) Goods Orders. Technically, the pair is still in a breakout mode. It closed last week above March high (~1.0125) but below year's high (~1.03). The latter will be watched closely in the coming days.

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al_dcdemo 27 nov

UPDATE 7: Swiss franc lost about a cent against the dollar this week. The pair's weekly trading range was slightly wider than the previous week's one but it didn't exceed two cents. The pair broke above January high and to the highest level since 2010. The breakout took place on Friday in thinner liquidity conditions and many are pointing their fingers towards the SNB.

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al_dcdemo 29 nov

UPDATE 8: There will be plenty of Swiss macroeconomic data points released next week ahead but nothing really market moving. U.S. data released in the week ahead includes: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP report. The pair will likely pull back a bit and consolidate in the beginning of the week but the rally doesn't appear to be done yet. 1.0450 - 1.0500 is the next target.

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Is USD/CHF setting up for a break higher?

al_dcdemo Publié 29 sep comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9875, Date: 2 de novembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Turmoil #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart:
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 high…
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al_dcdemo 26 oct

UPDATE 7: After weak pullback in the first hours of the week, Swissie extended its rally and is set to post eight consecutive day of gains. To the delight of swing traders, these kind of multi day streaks are very frequent in major currency pairs recently. The pair is currently trading a couple of pips below the September high (~0.9840). Break above would flush some stops and open door to the August high (~0.99), near the last big figure before parity (1.00). 0.98 may prove to be the first stronger support on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 30 oct

UPDATE 8: Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now. September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.

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al_dcdemo 31 oct

UPDATE 9: Rather than just continuing higher in the week ahead, I think the pair will retrace some of its recent gains first. 38.2% retracement of the October 15th to 28th rally comes in near 0.9775 and 50.0% retracement above 0.97. 50 DMA is currently running just below but will most likely rise above that in the days ahead. 0.9750 is the potential take off point. If it fails, 100 and 200 DMA will come back into focus.

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 2 nov

Great Analysis : )

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 2 nov

UPDATE 10: The pair started the week sideways, continuing the tight range from the last week. It is currently trading near 100 month SMA, a level that capped the pair twice earlier this year. Conditions for a sustained break above the level seem to be in place. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction as price action in this contest period conformed well to my expectations and ended with a great outcome.

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USD/CHF remains well supported

al_dcdemo Publié 27 aou comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9575, Date: 1 de octobre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Turmoil #Neutral Technicals #Descending Trendline #Supportive Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 12 sep

UPDATE 6: The long awaited September FOMC meeting will finally happen next week, on Thursday. I think the chances for the Fed to begin tightening are quite good. Despite recent worries regarding global markets, this may be best opportunity for the lift-off this year. If it happens and they remain hawkish, the pair will likely retest at least August high near 0.99 and perhaps parity. If not, 50 DMA is the first line of defense ahead of 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 sep

UPDATE 7: There are a couple of economic data points coming up from Switzerland later in the week (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI) but hardly anything market moving. ISM Manufacturing PMI and jobs report from the US are the releases that the pair is waiting for. 50 DMA has been doing its job of supporting the pair ahead of 100 and 200 DMA. Strong resistance zone 0.9850 - 0.9900 remains intact.

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al_dcdemo 30 sep

UPDATE 2: Yesterday's range-bound trading with falling volatility extended into ultra tight consolidation in today's Asian session, which then broke to the upside just before Europe opened for business. The pair climbed some 40 pips from there but is pulling back as I type. 50 DMA is doing its job well and, unless the pair falls below it, near-term technical picture remains bullish.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 30 sep

Great analysis and good accuracy!

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al_dcdemo 1 oct

Thanks!

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USD/CHF resuming the uptrend

al_dcdemo Publié 30 juillet comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9825, Date: 1 de septembre, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Snb #Fomc Meeting #Range #Bullish Bias #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Solid Support
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 10 aou

UPDATE 4: Apart from US retail sales and PPI reports there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead. That may allow for a nice orderly trend continuation. 0.9875 - 0.9900 is the initial resistance before parity level (1.00), but the offers may be stacked all the way up to the big level. Support is seen in 0.9750 - 0.9800 band and then into 0.97.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 15 aou

UPDATE 5: The pair started the week in unconvincing fashion and a glimmer of hope for the bulls showed up on Tuesday afternoon when the pair broke to new highs and kind of held there. After PBOC devalued yuan fix for the second time in a row on Wednesday, the pair sold off in a bout of risk-off weakness, falling more than two cents. It pulled back on Thursday and consolidated for the remained of the week.

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al_dcdemo 16 aou

UPDATE 6: Switzerland will release Retail Sales and Trade Balance but, as is usual for the Swiss macroeconomic indicators, they probably won't move the pair much. Bigger risk comes from the US inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes, which will be released on Wednesday. Initial support shall come in around 0.9725 with more near 0.9675. Resistance is seen in 0.9790 - 0.9820 band and then into 0.99 level.

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al_dcdemo 28 aou

UPDATE 7: As is usual for this pair, price action mirrored EUR/USD in most respects. The pair regained half of the ground that it lost since August 11th, but it would have reclaimed even more if it weren't for a Friday risk-off selling in EUR/CHF. The pair will close the week above 50, 100 and 200 SMA, after trading below them for three days. Weekly candle features a long lower tail and close near the high, but that may not mean a lot in the consolidation.

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al_dcdemo 29 aou

UPDATE 8: There's nothing of note from the Switzerland on the calendar from the week ahead so we will have to turn our attention to the US which will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and NFP reports. Developments in the global stock markets will also be closely monitored as the pair can be very sensitive to risk-off shocks. Key support is found near 0.95.

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USD/CHF enjoys SNB support

al_dcdemo Publié 30 juin comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9525, Date: 3 de août, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Double Bottom #USD/CHF #Fomc Meeting #Range #Strong Resistance #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Neutral Technicals #Bullish Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 25 juillet

UPDATE 8: Apart from a couple of low tier economic data points (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer) there's nothing particularly market moving on the calendar for the week ahead from Switzerland. Main risk events come from across the Atlantic: (Core) Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting, Advance GDP. Resistance is seen near 0.9750 (March 31th and April 22th highs) and then 0.9850 (April 13th high). Strong support remains in place at 0.95.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 28 juillet

Also about 100 pips away! Great! If the dollar appreciates this week it may be very close!

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al_dcdemo 31 juillet

We'll see, it has to go down a bit. :)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 juillet

UPDATE 9: The pair continued its steady uptrend throughout the week. The most prominent feature of this uptrend are deep pullbacks, but they were all soaked up quickly as evident by the lower tails on recent daily candles. Even strong sell-off on Friday was reversed in just a couple of hours. It was the third week in the row that the pair ended up higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 aou

UPDATE 10: As is usual for the first week of the month, we'll get a slew of economic data and it could get quite volatile. NFP report is the most important data point as the Fed may soon be hiking rates based on labour market strength. Demand may start coming in near 0.96 while the strong 0.95 level remains in place if we get any (un)expected sell-offs. Initial resistance is seen near 0.9725.

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USD/CHF up towards parity

al_dcdemo Publié 31 mar comme Analyse sur USD/CHF, Cible: 0.9968, Date: 1 de mai, 12:00 GMT  dans #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Bullish #USD/CHF #Uptrend #Pullback #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Turnaround
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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al_dcdemo 6 avr

UPDATE 2: Both technicals and shorter-term fundamentals point to further losses in the week ahead, although some sort of pullback and/or re-test of pre-NFP levels is not unlikely in the very short term. First stronger support on the downside comes in at October 15th 2014 low and February 2nd high near 0.9350.

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al_dcdemo 11 avr

UPDATE 3: Even though SNB removed 1.20 cap, USD/CHF returned to the old habit of mirroring EUR/USD movement, while EUR/CHF is trading around 1.05 with declining volatility. The pair opened the week near 0.95 and, after it failed to follow through on post-NFP gains, reversed higher and climbed all the way to (and through) 0.98 level to close the week just below that. Weekly candle looks bullish - long real body with the close above March 31 high and near the high.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 12 avr

UPDATE 4: If the pair won't continue to rally on Monday then there will likely be some consolidation, probably at least until US Retail Sales report on Tuesday or perhaps even until ECB meeting on Wednesday. Initial support comes in at March 31 high near 0.9750 and then some more closer to 0.9650. If 0.98 goes, there may not be much resistance before 0.9980 and parity.

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al_dcdemo 18 avr

UPDATE 5: Percentage-wise the pair was the second best performer on the week. Again, price action closely resembled that of EUR/USD, but due to slow slide in EUR/CHF, the downtrend in the pair was more pronounced. Even though it didn't manage to break below April 3 low (0.9480) it closed below 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Long weekly candle that almost engulfs previous week's one and closes near the low also looks bearish.

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al_dcdemo 19 avr

UPDATE 6: There's few CHF related events in the week ahead (Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Expectations) but they are not expected to impact prices much. Given continuing slide in EUR/CHF and imminent break lower in USD/CHF, there's risk that the SNB might start to intervene (verbally or otherwise) in the markets. If the pair convincingly breaks 0.95, stronger demand may come in at weekly support near 0.9360.

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