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Is USD/CHF setting up for a break higher?

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Bullish Picture #Turnaround #Strong Demand #Turmoil #Snb Debacle #Snb Support
Monthly chart:
SNB's decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor on January 15th 2015 sent USD/CHF all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was around 0.7250 or roughly just 70% of the value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive as, after barely two months, the pair retested pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but has been holding above 20 and 50 month SMA while 100 month SMA and the descending trendline (drawn of 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2010 high…
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al_dcdemo 26 Oct.

UPDATE 7: After weak pullback in the first hours of the week, Swissie extended its rally and is set to post eight consecutive day of gains. To the delight of swing traders, these kind of multi day streaks are very frequent in major currency pairs recently. The pair is currently trading a couple of pips below the September high (~0.9840). Break above would flush some stops and open door to the August high (~0.99), near the last big figure before parity (1.00). 0.98 may prove to be the first stronger support on the downside.

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al_dcdemo 30 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Swissie traded to the highest since March after hawkish FOMC on Wednesday, breaking above August high (~0.99) in the process and to as high as 0.9957. Selling ahead of parity (1.00) was enough to stall the ascent and the pair has been backing and filling for two days now. September high (~0.9840) is already playing an important role as support and remains the first test on whether this rally still has legs or another deep pullback will be needed before the pair finally breaks above parity.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Rather than just continuing higher in the week ahead, I think the pair will retrace some of its recent gains first. 38.2% retracement of the October 15th to 28th rally comes in near 0.9775 and 50.0% retracement above 0.97. 50 DMA is currently running just below but will most likely rise above that in the days ahead. 0.9750 is the potential take off point. If it fails, 100 and 200 DMA will come back into focus.

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foreignexchange 2 Nov.

Great Analysis : )

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al_dcdemo 2 Nov.

UPDATE 10: The pair started the week sideways, continuing the tight range from the last week. It is currently trading near 100 month SMA, a level that capped the pair twice earlier this year. Conditions for a sustained break above the level seem to be in place. All in all, I'm pleased with the prediction as price action in this contest period conformed well to my expectations and ended with a great outcome.

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EUR/USD to continue to rise slowly

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1425, Date: 2nd of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 2: It was a range-bound week in the pair, though the range was of decent size, nearly 200 pips. One notable characteristics is the convergence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA, which are forming a strong support zone near 1.1150. The pair was testing the zone while surprisingly weaker than expected US payroll report was released and that sent it all the way to the other side of the range.

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al_dcdemo 5 Oct.

UPDATE 3: Following poor NFP report, strongly rally and a decent pullback on Friday, Euro started the week as expected and rose 80+ pips from the open. The rally stalled ahead of resistance band at 1.1300 - 1.1325 (00's, Daily Resistance 1, Weekly Resistance 1, Previous Week High). It pulled back and is finding some support between 1.1235 and 1.1250 (H4 200 SMA, 50's, H4 100 SMA, Monthly Pivot Point). If it doesn't turn back up from here, 200 DMA (~1.1170) may come back into focus.

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al_dcdemo 9 Oct.

UPDATE 4: The pair broke from recent consolidation between 1.11 and 1.13. It gained 130 pips on the week despite that euro was sold strongly against commodity currencies. Combo of three daily moving averages (now at 1.1150 -  1.1200) proved as a solid support while also providing "golden cross" signal. 50 DMA crossed over 200 DMA last Friday, 100 DMA is just about to do the same.

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al_dcdemo 17 Oct.

UPDATE 5: The pair ended the week about 15 pips lower. Starting with sideways action on Monday, volatility picked up on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday when the pair broke above September high (1.1460) and tested 1.15. The test was successful and the pair pared all gains in the remaining two days. Weekly candle resembles a shooting star and implies a retest of recent range bottom near 1.11.

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al_dcdemo 19 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Euro started the week with lacklustre sideways trading in a 40-pip range. Highlight of the week is the ECB meeting on Thursday and, while many are expecting them to signal further easing, chances are that it won't happen yet. The pair is now trading comfortably above 50, 100 and 200 DMA and looks well supported in the dips in this weak dollar environment.

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USD/CHF remains well supported

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9575, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Confluence #USD/CHF #Symmetrical Triangle #Snb Shocker #Turnaround #Turmoil #Neutral Technicals #Descending Trendline #Supportive Fundamentals
Monthly chart:
After breaking parity at the start of the year, the SNB shocker on January 15th sent the pair all the way down to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after barely two months the pair found itself testing middle of the pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. It declined from there but managed to hold above both 20 and 50 month SMA. The latter is the line in sand: holding above is bul…
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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: The long awaited September FOMC meeting will finally happen next week, on Thursday. I think the chances for the Fed to begin tightening are quite good. Despite recent worries regarding global markets, this may be best opportunity for the lift-off this year. If it happens and they remain hawkish, the pair will likely retest at least August high near 0.99 and perhaps parity. If not, 50 DMA is the first line of defense ahead of 200 DMA.

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al_dcdemo 29 Sep.

UPDATE 7: There are a couple of economic data points coming up from Switzerland later in the week (UBS Consumption Indicator, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI) but hardly anything market moving. ISM Manufacturing PMI and jobs report from the US are the releases that the pair is waiting for. 50 DMA has been doing its job of supporting the pair ahead of 100 and 200 DMA. Strong resistance zone 0.9850 - 0.9900 remains intact.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 2: Yesterday's range-bound trading with falling volatility extended into ultra tight consolidation in today's Asian session, which then broke to the upside just before Europe opened for business. The pair climbed some 40 pips from there but is pulling back as I type. 50 DMA is doing its job well and, unless the pair falls below it, near-term technical picture remains bullish.

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WallStreet6 30 Sep.

Great analysis and good accuracy!

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks!

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EUR/USD to stay in upward sloping channel

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1525, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Bounce #Downtrend #Economic Divergence #Channel Line #Turmoil #2005 Low #Upward Sloping Channel
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 6 Sep.

UPDATE 4: Calendar for the week ahead is lacking significant Euroarea events, while US top tier events (PPI, Unemployment Claims, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment) are scarce too. Technically, the pair is holding just above 50 and 100 DMA with an additional buffer of 80 pips down to 1.10 level. And, if all that fails, there's channel support zone (1.09 - 1.10) as the last line of defence for the bulls.

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al_dcdemo 11 Sep.

UPDATE 5: The pair spent the first part of this lacklustre week in a tight sideways congestion, slowly grinding up and managed to close post-ECB decline by Thursday. On the same day the pair broke higher and traded up at 1.13 before pulling back. It appears poised to close the week below that level, but it depends on what today's US session and pre-weekend flows may bring.

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al_dcdemo 12 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Next week will be big not only for the Euro but for all global markets. FOMC will meet on September 17th and it is quite possible that they will initiate the long awaited tightening of their monetary policy. If that materializes, the pair may find itself testing 1.10 and perhaps below, depending on the rhetorics from the committee. On the flipside, if they pass on the lift-off, the pair may get quick to bump into 1.15.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Euro staged an impressive rally yesterday but then reversed at the end of the European session. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Yellen right after the US market close led to another 60 pip decline and the pair is now trading near yesterday's opening levels. The pair is sandwitched between three important moving averages: 200 DMA above (~1.1190) and 50 and 100 DMA below (~1.1145). Judging by yesterday's strong rejection near 1.13, perhaps the most likely scenario is a retest of the seven-month channel bottom near 1.10.

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al_dcdemo 28 Sep.

UPDATE 8: There's plenty of economic data coming out from Europe this week, but nothing particularly market moving apart from perhaps inflation report. Fed speakers, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP figures will be the main events from across the big pond. Ignoring DMAs, initial support is seen in 1.1090 - 1.1120 band (Previous Day Low, Previous Week Low, 00's, Weekly Support 1) and resistance between 1.1240 and 1.1260 (Daily Resistance 1, 50's, Monthly Pivot Point).

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Cable holding up well

al_dcdemo Updated 30 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Tight Range #50 Dma #200 Dma #H1 Chart #Weekend Gap #Turmoil
With the turmoil going on in the financial markets in the recent days, Cable has been one of the currency pairs that remained relatively unaffected. Weekend gap lower was just 40 pips and most of it was closed in an hour or so after the opening, with the rest shortly after the start of the European session.
The pair is trading in relatively tight range between 1.5675 and 1.5775. Should it continue higher it may have hard time to get past the strong resistance in 1.5875 - 1.5925 band. On the down…
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