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EUR/TRY Stalling Around Key Area After Large Gains

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.2111, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Resistance #Rally #European Union #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY is stalling around a key resistance area. We're currently quoted at 4.2068, with the previous swing high back in January at 4.1764. This means that the pair hasn't made more then 1% gain all year.
If this wasn't weak enough, on the lower timeframe chart below we're seeing a ranging market. Because of both these charts I'm betting on the EUR/TRY staying range-bound in October.
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EUR/TRY Still Can't Break Past Resistance

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1110, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Eurozone #Weekly #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
The EUR/TRY still can't break the important resistance around 4.17 - 4.18 Euros. As we can see on the chart below, the pair tried hard to break free only to be pushed back down below this level.
But I'm not ready to bet on EUR/TRY losses just yet. On the lower time-frames (below) we're seeing the struggle as well. All summer the pair has stayed ranged-bound. I see no reason for this to change now, so betting on more of the same and prices staying near here seems like a prudent choice.
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More of the Same for the Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 July as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 4.1622, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #4H Chart #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Weekly Chart #Range Box #Turkish Lira
I expect to see more of the same in the EUR/TRY. The pair has been trading range-bound on the lower timeframe 4 hour chart, as the picture below clearly shows. There were several attempts to break above the 4.16 - 4.17 resistance area, with no success.
On the bigger weekly chart (below) we're seeing the same price behavior. Here too price is bouncing against important resistance and again it is the 4.17 level, same as on the 4h chart.
Because of this timeframes confluence I don't think the pair …
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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.9712, Date: 3rd of July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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Both Timeframes Agree in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8754, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Range Top #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.
The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.
This underscore just how range-bound the EUR/TRY has become lately. But this is not a new phenomenon. See the chart above and you can notice the same zig-zag price action on the…
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More of the Same in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8730, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Timeframes #Turkish Lira #Congestion
The EUR/TRY looks set for more of the same. In order to explain why, let us first look at what transpired in this pair during March. We opened the month near the 3.8500 level as can be seen on the chart below.
From here we rallied all the way up to 4.0168, only to get sold aggressively in the next few days to a low of 3.8825. After a dead-cat bounce the move lower continued until finally we closed March at 3.8687, less then half-percent from the monthly open. The second chart below shows the pic…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.

The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.

This is only 23 pips away from my forecasted price, so I expect to see a good result in this month's contest!

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Gains in EUR/TRY Fizzle Out

fxsurprise8 Posted 28 Feb. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8531, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #EUR/TRY #Uptrend #Overbought #Try #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Us Elections
The gains in the EUR/TRY during January are being eaten away in February. We're now quoted at 3.8541, barely above this year's open for this currency pair. This shows that the bull trend has been broken.
Exhibit number two is the lower time-frame chart below. Here we see that prices are indecisive , with large swings. While in the pic above we had gains erased by downtrend, here we see losses erased by uptrend.
In conclusion, this year neither the bulls nor the bears can steer this currency pair…
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fxsurprise8 27 Mar.

UPDATE 1: The EUR/TRY is trading at 3.9248 right now, around 1.8 percent away from my forecasted price.

Initially the pair acted according to my expectations. From March 1st to March 17th we've been trading mostly range-bound, although with a slight bullish bias. Since then however the pair started moving back up as the Euro is being bought up across the board on risk aversion.

Still looking at the daily chart, you couldn't tell this is a trend. We're well within the bound of last month's trading range for example.And February was within the bound of January's trading range. Ranges prevail!

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fxsurprise8 30 Mar.

UPDATE 2: We're now quoted at 3.8996 in this pair and slowly drifting toward my forecasted price of 3.8531. The past three days saw some mixed price action, as you can expect in this pair.

First the EUR/TRY rallied to a high of 3.9644, only to get sold to low of 3.8825 in the next two days. We are currently trading at 3.8996 like we said above, closer to the lows then the highs.

Seems that my previous update called it right. While prices were moving up, it didn't look like much of a trend to me. And now we're seeing the pair reverse those tentative gains.

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fxsurprise8 31 Mar.

UPDATE 3: The EUR/TRY continues the slow drift toward my 3.8531 target. We're now trading at 3.8705, only 0.45% away from my forecasted price.

More of the same seems likely here as the momentum is still down. We should see the pair continue to drift lower and hopefully settle at a better price for me on Monday.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today. Volatile swings with no decisive outcome.

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fxsurprise8 1 Apr.

UPDATE 4: This for another update and this time we will add a chart. This picture shows the price action for EUR/TRY during March.

Overall mean-reversion was king in the EUR/TRY this month as well. We opened at 3.8544, then rallied to a high of 4.0148 only to sell off to 3.8668 today.

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fxsurprise8 2 Apr.

UPDATE 5: The EUR/TRY opened the new week at 3.8683, a bit closer to my forecasted price at 3.8531.

Unfortunately in the next few hours of the Asian session the move lower fizzled out and we're currently quoted at 3.8733.

This is little changed compared to the close on Friday, so we'll have to wait and see what happens on Monday in the last few hours of the contest!

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Turlish Lira Still Struggling to Make Headway

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.70877, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Resistance #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira #Stabilization #Us Elections
The Turkish Lira is still struggling to make headway post US-election day. On that faithful day prices peaked at 3.6915 but ever since, the EUR/TRY has been unable to achieve much. We are currently quoted at 3.7042, barely above that post-election high.
On our second chart below we see that the pair has made very little change during December. We opened that month at 3.6445 and we are now at 3.7042, a move of only 1 percent. This underscores the range-bound nature of this pair during this year.
…
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Turkish Lira to Continue Stabilization

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.6405, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Eurozone #Long Term #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Try #Turkish Lira #Stabilization #Us Election
The month of November started out unusually busy for the EUR/TRY. This pair usually doesn't move much. But in the aftermath of the US election, we saw a spike all the way to the 3.6900 level. Over 20 days later and the pair still can't surpass the highs seen on November 10th. This shows that we're finally stabilizing.
But that's only reason number one why I'm betting on stabilization in the EUR/TRY. The second reason is shown on the hourly chart below. Notice how no clear momentum can be seen he…
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Elens94 avatar
Elens94 1 Dec.

Good work

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Turkish Lira Still in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3956, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira #Congestion
We'll do a two-part analysis on the EUR/TRY. First let's take a look at the long-term picture. On the chart below we can see that this pair has been stuck in a giant triangle pattern for the past 15 months. We've seen some retests of the top of the pattern in the past month but so far the formation is holding up.
Now let's take a look at a lower time-frame. The chart below shows the EUR/TRY on a daily chart. Notice how we're trading barely higher then where we were back in July of this year. Yes…
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