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Canadian dollar fell yesterday after dovish speech and comments by the BOC governor Poloz. U.S. president Trump fired secretary of state Tillerson and a couple of other officials also weighed on the currency. USD/CAD rallied about 150 pips low to high but stalled ahead of 100 WMA, which is backed by the big figure at 1.30. A successful break would target 61.8% retracement of the 2017 decline at 1.3130. 1.29 - 1.2925 is the initial support.
al_dcdemo's Blog
Yen the performer of the week
Bank of Japan is turning every so slightly more hawkish, even though its officials are trying to downplay it. U.S. Administration's politics continues to weigh on the dollar, despite interest rate advantage against most major currencies. USD/JPY extended its decline, pausing at the 76.4% retracement of the Trump rally. If 105 - 105.5 area gives way, a quick fall to 101.5 - 102.5 is quite possible.
Stock markets bounced, likely to consolidate in 10% range
Stock markets bounced firmly last week. The Dow, Trump's favorite benchmark of presidental success, retraced just over 61.8% and nearly all losses from the previous week, before profit taking set in ahead of the weekend. Barring anything that would spook investors, I think orderly correction has some further to run after some initial consolidation in 10% range, especially if bond yields keep rising.
EUR/USD breaks above 1.25 but pulls back sharply
As expected, ECB kept policy steady. Draghi didn't try to talk down euro, which gave it another boost higher. Later, U.S. president Trump backtracked on what Mnuchin said a day earlier, saying that ultimately he "wants to see a strong dollar", which prompted a round of profit taking among U.S. dollar bears. EUR/USD already recovered half of that fall and appears ready to retest 1.25.
U.S. dollar strong but yen outperforms
Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now.
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…
The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the w…
USD/CHF testing top of its five-month range
There appears to have been some progress on the U.S. tax reform but it is all words so far. Trump hasn't managed to repeal and replace Obamacare but maybe he could gather sufficient support for lowering some taxes.
USD/CHF made another attempt at the strong resistance area at 0.975 - 0.98 this afternoon but pulled back sharply. That area is backed by descending 2016 - 2017 trendline and 200 DMA. 0.97 is the initial support and then 0.965.
USD/CHF made another attempt at the strong resistance area at 0.975 - 0.98 this afternoon but pulled back sharply. That area is backed by descending 2016 - 2017 trendline and 200 DMA. 0.97 is the initial support and then 0.965.
USD/JPY slips on North Korea headlines
Yesterday, North Korean foreign minister said that they understood Trump's comments over the weekend as a declaration of war. White House later said that they have not declared war on North Korea.
Yen was bought on the news and USD/JPY fell some 50 pips. The pair stalled ahead of 111.50 level, which is the immediate support. Pre-FOMC low near 111 and the big figure itself is the next area to watch. 112.30 - 112.70 is the initial resistance.
Yen was bought on the news and USD/JPY fell some 50 pips. The pair stalled ahead of 111.50 level, which is the immediate support. Pre-FOMC low near 111 and the big figure itself is the next area to watch. 112.30 - 112.70 is the initial resistance.
USD/CAD pulls back after making a new high
Canadian dollar has been under the cosh this week. The currency made a new low for the year after U.S. taxed Canadian lumber and another one yesterday after the talk that the U.S. is about to withdraw from NAFTA. However, Trump agreed with leaders of Canada and Mexico not to terminate NAFTA and the currency staged a rebound.
I took only two hours for the USD/CAD to fall from 1.3650 to 1.3530 before buyers stepped back in. 1.3535 (March high) is the immediate support. A stronger one may be encoun…
I took only two hours for the USD/CAD to fall from 1.3650 to 1.3530 before buyers stepped back in. 1.3535 (March high) is the immediate support. A stronger one may be encoun…
Kiwi snaps back
Kiwi traders reacted on Trump talking down the U.S. dollar on Tuesday evening and bought/covered the pair up to 0.7015. Overall, the prospect of lower interest rate differentials still weighs and there was no hurry to lift it much higher.
0.70 - 0.7025 is the initial resistance and, if buying continues, the range could be extended to somewhere between 0.7090 and 0.7125. It may perhaps rally further after French election, if U.S. dollar weakness continues and RBNZ doesn't turn dovish.
0.70 - 0.7025 is the initial resistance and, if buying continues, the range could be extended to somewhere between 0.7090 and 0.7125. It may perhaps rally further after French election, if U.S. dollar weakness continues and RBNZ doesn't turn dovish.
Aussie rallies on Trump and jobs
Aussie rallied hard overnight. First, U.S. president Trump said that he likes low interest rates and how the dollar is too strong. Then, a much better than expected Australian labour market report hit the wires. The economy created 74.5K full time jobs in March with participation rate also up.
The pair posted an outside up day off of 0.7475 - 0.75 support yesterday and is following that up with a long green candle today. It has surged above both 100 and 200 DMA, up to March 28th low at 0.7585, w…
The pair posted an outside up day off of 0.7475 - 0.75 support yesterday and is following that up with a long green candle today. It has surged above both 100 and 200 DMA, up to March 28th low at 0.7585, w…