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Aussie to trade above 0.80 in September

al_dcdemo Posted 29 Aug. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8075, Date: 2nd of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pai…
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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 6: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was the pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 7: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will commence in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Having briefly traded above 0.81 on the initial reaction, Aussie was sold strongly after FOMC decision. It extended losses on the following day as RBA governor Lowe said they are in no hurry to hike rates. China ratings downgrade and metal prices falls didn't help the currency either. AUD/USD broke and closed below both shorter-term trendline and 50 DMA yesterday but pulled back towards the trendline today. 0.80 should now cap it, if we are to see continuation lower. 0.78 - 0.785 would be the next target.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the U.S. dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: At today's meeting, RBA decided to keep the cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The accompanying statement is similar to the previous one, highlighting both upside and downside risks. The paragraph on the Australian dollar is unchanged. The reaction was to sell Aussie on lack of any clear hawkish signal but, since the statement didn't deteriorate, selling didn't extend much lower. Area between 100 DMA and 0.78 held and European traders took AUD/USD back above the big figure. 0.7825 - 0.785 is the initial resistance.

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Aussie to lose some momentum in August

al_dcdemo Posted 29 July as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8075, Date: 1st of September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Breakout #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Long Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie was trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.78 for more than a year, carving out a triangle pattern in the process. The pai…
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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

Thank you :)

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currency pairs sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 10: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 11: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Aussie to consolidate around 0.75 in July

al_dcdemo Posted 22 June as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7575, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Triangle Pattern #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie has been trying to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 for more than a year. A series of lower highs is noted as the pair onl…
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al_dcdemo 23 July

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.1450 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.7450, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 July

UPDATE 8: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist may come.

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al_dcdemo 27 July

UPDATE 9: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't uncover anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 10: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but most likely not for too long.

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al_dcdemo 1 Aug.

UPDATE 11: In line with expectations, RBA once again held cash rate on the record low of 1.5%. The statement from governor Lowe was longer than usual, though the message didn't differ much from the previous one. There was a whole new paragraph dedicated to Australian dollar and how its strength would not benefit the economy. The pair dropped about 20 pips instantly and then squeezed higher but wasn't able to overcome overnight high. Sellers stepped back in and the pair is currently trading just below 0.80. The big figure could serve as a decent bull/bear line in sand.

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