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EUR/TRY Stuck in a Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 May as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.9712, Date: 3 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Range Box #Turkish Lira #Single Currency
The EUR/TRY has been stuck in large triangle all year. Notice how prices keep trading in a smaller and smaller range on the weekly chart below. While this will eventually result in a breakout, I think this wont happen during June as there is still room to maneuver inside the triangle.
On our next chart below we're seeing that mean-reversion has been the name of the game for 2017 in this currency pair. Every dip was bought and every rally was sold into. Prices now are not much different from pric…
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EUR/JPY Firmly in Triangle Pattern

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 115.09, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Volatility #Japanese Yen #Triangle Pattern #Range Bound #JPY Crosses
The EUR/JPY is now firmly inside a large triangle pattern. Look at the weekly chart below. Prices have been stuck inside this formation for the past several months. And while this is a trend continuation pattern, until the bears manage to break out range-bound trading will persist.
Let's take a look at a lower time-frame chart as well to get a fuller picture. On the daily chart below this range-bound behavior is even more evident. Notice how prices have stayed virtually flat since the start of t…
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Turkish Lira Still in Range

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3956, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Ecb #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira #Congestion
We'll do a two-part analysis on the EUR/TRY. First let's take a look at the long-term picture. On the chart below we can see that this pair has been stuck in a giant triangle pattern for the past 15 months. We've seen some retests of the top of the pattern in the past month but so far the formation is holding up.
Now let's take a look at a lower time-frame. The chart below shows the EUR/TRY on a daily chart. Notice how we're trading barely higher then where we were back in July of this year. Yes…
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No Change Expected for Turkish Lira

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3692, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #European Union #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Triangle Pattern #Try #Range Bound #Turkish Lira
I expect to see little change in the price of the Turkish Lira versus the Euro. Exhibit A below shows that the pair has been stuck in a triangle pattern for the past 14 months (since August of 2015). This a trend-continuation pattern if prices finally manage to break through. But until that happens, betting on more of the same is a no-brainer.
Exhibit B shows a snapshot of the daily price movements. We again notice how the EUR/TRY is trading mostly range-bound since March of this year. We opened…
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fxsurprise8 31 Oct.

The EUR/TRY is now quoted at 3.3954, about 0.77% away from my 3.3692 forecasted price. So far in October we had a range of only 3.1 percent, with a high at 3.4418 and a low at 3.3357.

The movements have been range-bound as well with the pair opening at 3.3665, rallying to a high of 3.4418 in the first few days only to fall to a low of 3.3357 by October 21st.

Closer to the end of the month the lows got bought up and we're now quoted at 3.3954, fairly close to my target as noted above.

Overall my analysis has been mostly correct so far with the EUR/TRY. We're still inside the long-term range.

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Turkish Lira Still Stuck in Large Triangle

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.3015, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Turkey #EUR/TRY #Coup #Triangle Pattern #Try #Turkish Lira #Fibo Retracement
Volatility in the Turkish Lira is still subdued. The pair continues to trade inside a large triangle (see below). Until prices finally breakout higher or lower, we're going to see more of the same i.e. ever narrower ranges.
On the second picture below you can see the second reason why I'm betting on no change in September at 3.3015. The EUR/TRY spent all summer inside a range, bouncing between the highs at 3.42 and the lows near 3.17. The 50% Fib retracement of this range is at 3.30, which is al…
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