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USD/CHF Large Range Key Reversal

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2013年11月10日。分析予想通貨ペア:USD/CHF, 予想レート: 0.9070, 予想日: 2日1月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Impulsive Wave #Triangle #USD/CHF #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Five Wave Cycle #Snb Intervention
Since latest SNB intervention in the market from around 2 years ago USD/CHF have been trading in a big range zone from a high of 0.9970 to a low of 0.8890, an wide 1080 pips range zone. Based on Elliott Wave theory we can easily see that this contracting range over the last 2 years has form a triangle that conforms the requirement of 5 waves based on Elliott Wave analysis. Based on this I see the last deep towards the 0.8890 low, labeled E in Figure1 as the last corre…
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Daytrader21 2013年11月15日

Update 1: The market is already giving us signs of topping around 0.9250 as momentum slowed down. This is the first wave of a new five wave sequence to the upside, from here on the market could retrace back all the way down until 0.8900 swing low point or our second option is for the market to correct only half way at 50% fib retracement level of previous level at 0.9065

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Daytrader21 2013年11月22日

Update 2. As predicted we have just entered in the stage of developing wave 2, but we still have to break below 0.9080 support level which was quite a strong support level in the last days. But that fact that this level was retested for so many times suggest that at some point in time it will become weaker and we can break below it.

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Daytrader21 2013年11月29日

Update 3: As I said in my previous update the market has indeed broke below 0.9080 support level. Right now the market is in an retracement mode and I'm still expecting lower level before wave B is completed, next support level is around 0.8950 from where we should expect the market momentum to pick up

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Daytrader21 2013年12月09日

Update 4: Based on Elliot wave theory wave 2 can often retrace till the start point of wave 1 which in our case is 0.8890 but in order for our forecast to be validated this swing low point must hold, expecting this week momentum to pick up. Next resistance level where the market may find some problems on the way back up are the following levels:08980 and 0.9040 if we manage to break and close above it than we may see our target hit

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Daytrader21 2013年12月14日

Update 5: Because we broke below wave E and 0.8900 level it may suggest that this is an irregular triangle, but next week is key, if we manage to close back again above 0.8900 it will show us if this downside break is a genuine break or is a false breakout

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Cable: ready to resume it's long term bearish trend

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2013年06月13日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/USD, 予想レート: 1.5100, 予想日: 1日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Elliot Wave #Triangle #Waves
Cable remains in the long term bearish trend as Elliot wave suggest we still have to make another swing low point in order to complete the 5 wave formation. Currently we have just finished the 4th major cyclical wave (see fig.2) and we are in the inception of the final 5th wave (see fig.1) which should get us below the 1.3500 major swing low point.For the last few years after the major crash of 2008 price has been moving in a big triangle formation (see fig.2) which constitute the wave 4 of this…
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Daytrader21 2013年06月18日

When wave 5 extend itself you get something like this when wave 3 is shortest than wave 5

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Daytrader21 2013年06月30日

It's already the beginning of July and we have almost hit the 1.51 target. The fact that we sold off very hard from the recent swing high is just a confirmation that my wave count analysis is right and the price is following the elliot wave wave cycle. After such a huge sell of I'm expecting price to take a pause in the next few weeks, so most likely we will see price moving in a sideways action around this levels

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Daytrader21 2013年07月04日

After today strong sell of and going below the 1.51 target the market can accelerate to downside if previous low doesn't hold. But if it will hold expecting market to take his breath and consolidate between the 1.5280 resistance point and 1.5000 round number support level. We'll see in the next days how it turns out

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Daytrader21 2013年07月13日

As I said in my previous post I was expecting the market to sell of if the previous low wouldn't hold and we indeed broke below another swing low at 1.4820, but after we broke below the market reaction was very strong and we had a big rally of around 400 pips. After recent surge in volatilityI 'm expecting the market to take a pause for the next weeks and by the end of the month we should find cable at around 1.5100

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Daytrader21 2013年07月30日

Tomorrow is the end month flow and I'm expecting the current sell of to continue and to get near my target 1.5100. Usually cable is very volatile on the end month flow as traders are positioning themselves and adjust their positions. Next support is at around 1.5150 before 1.5100 so I'm expecting there the market to find some minot support in the short term play

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Aussie Flying high? For now continues to head towards parity

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2013年05月06日。分析予想通貨ペア:AUD/USD, 予想レート: 1.0000, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Elliot Wave #Triangle #Parity #Projection #Fractal
Aussie remains within the long term range: 0.9380 as the lower border and 1.1080 the upper border. Within this trading range we are making a big triangle pattern which is apparently a bullish formation.(see fig.1)Based on Elliot Wave theory this triangle should be composed of 5 legs. We are currently developing an extended leg D which suggest that in order to complete the triangle formation we need to have a final leg E to the downside and to test the support level around 0.9800 round number.The…
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geula4x 2013年05月09日

+1 Liked: Nice analysis and clear charts. Happy trading today :-)

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Spartacus76 2013年05月10日

+1Yes, very well analysis and good luck

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VALTRAD 2013年05月29日

Have punched 0,9800 and 0,9680. The forecast changes, what tell waves?

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Daytrader21 2013年05月29日

@Valtrad Although we have gone through all of those mentioned levels this doesn't invalidated my analysis. As I've said in my analysis you don't have to be rigid, those numbers where just some flexible projections, when you have this kind of momentum price usually carry on a lot further before to reverse. We have just made another swing low and the fact that the price is reacting here is a sign that in the coming month price may rally from here. I'm expecting Jun to be a bullish month for aussie.

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Daytrader21 2013年06月29日

Looking now at the price action it's clear that I have underestimated the current severe break down in the audusd pair. For now I can say that we have turned from a long term bullish trend to a long term bearish trend. Although I was right that we are going to have a break down I didn't expected it to hold but it seems that the market proved me wrong and now I have to reconsider my whole analysis on this pair. After we have taken out all the previous swing lows this look very bearish at the moment with the momentum accelerating to the downside.

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