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Yen stabilizes ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting

al_dcdemo Updated 16 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Trendline #USD/JPY #Confluence #H1 Chart #Stock Markets #Treasury Yield #U S Dollar Buying #Position Adjustment
Sentiment in stock markets improved today while ten-year U.S. treasury yield gained 7bp. In addition, there was a broader U.S. dollar buying throughout the second part of the day - a lot if it must have been position adjustment ahead of tomorrow's big event.
USD/JPY rallied 120 pips from the lows and gained nearly 70 pips on the day after it bounced from the trendline, drawn off of August and October lows. The pair is currently trading just above the confluence of 50, 100 and 200 DMA (~121.50), …
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Aussie at an important juncture

al_dcdemo Updated 16 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Trendline #AUD/USD #Labour Market Report #H1 Chart
Following much better than expected labour market report, Aussie pulled up from the D1 trendline (drawn off September lows) ahead of 0.70 level. The rally ran out of steam near 50 DMA (currently ~0.7140) which is the first stronger level to overcome if the pair wants to continue higher.
The level coincides with the H4 trendline that connects highs of the last five weeks. If it gives way, 0.7200 - 0.7225 (W1 trendline, November 4th high, 100 DMA) will come into focus. If it holds, the pair will h…
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EURo boggles below the trendline

al_dcdemo Updated 12 June  in #Trader's blog #Euro #Trendline #EUR/USD #Greece #50 Dma #100 Dma #Us Data
Euro has been bumping into the declining trendline (drawn off July 2014, August 2014, December 2014, May 2015 and June 2015 highs) for the most of the past week. On the flipside, all falls on the disappointing Greek headlines and better US data were promptly soaked up. Supply and demand are in balance at the moment, but one of the sides will soon give in.
A great catalyst for the upside would be a deal between Greece and its creditors. Not sure about Greek default, as on one hand it would cause …
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USD/CHF to stay in range

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9457, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fundamentals #Support #Trendline #USD/CHF #Range #Parity #Swissie #Snb Shocker #Weak Us Data
Monthly chart:
The pair has broken parity on the first trading day of the year. It was trading around 1.02 when SNB shocker sent it all the way to 2011 lows. The actual low was 0.7263 or roughly just 70% of its value before the announcement. The turnaround was equally impressive and after (barely) two months the pair found itself testing middle of pre-SNB range between parity and 1.03. That was near-term top and it declined from there but it still managed to recoup more than three quarters of it…
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WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 1 June

Great job! Congrats! On the bull's eye!

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al_dcdemo 1 June

Thanks! Yep, it's looking good. :)

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 11: The pair opened the week strongly, adding 30 pips in the Asian session and so far 50 pips in the European session. 0.95 level acts as a decent barrier and the pair will need support from the US data if it wants to trade back above it. It's few minutes till the end of the forecast period and the pair will end up close to the target. I'm very happy with the analysis as the pair nicely conformed to my expectations.

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Eberhardt122 4 June

thanks for sharing the advice Al!

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al_dcdemo 4 June

Thanks! But it really is not meant as an advice, it's just a view of what I perceive as likely to happen. All standard disclaimers apply. :)

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It's probably still to soon to call GBP/USD bottom

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.496, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Boe #GBP/USD #Trendline #Cable #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Resistance Zone #Neutral Mode
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After briefly trading below 1.50, the pair stalled just above the level. July 2013 low of 1.4813 should provide some support and, if it goes, there's little to stop the decline until May 2010 low at 1.4228.
Weekly chart:
Monthly trendline, 1.55 level and 20 week SMA will provide resistance zone (1.5250 - 1.5550) in case of a d…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

It was an exceptional week for the pair, in which all three major PMIs showed improvement. The pair staged strong technical breakout from four-week consolidation/wedge and then set the scene for a promising reversal attempt. In the end it was all slightly marred by a very strong US labour report, but if the Dollar won't be able to follow through, this latest dip may prove to be a great buying opportunity.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

The pair started the week on a slightly weaker note, but lack of follow through after last Friday's decline gave the bulls much needed encouragement to hold the price above 1.52. It was not until Thursday, that the pair decisively broke higher on what was generally viewed as hawkish Inflation Report, breaking above the descending trendline that capped the pair since July 2014 and 50 DMA in the process. Next major resistance is now at 1.55 before 100 DMA just above 1.56.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

Weekly range was small (~150 pips) for usually volatile Cable. After jumping on much better than expected jobs report and neutral but positive MPC Minutes on Wednesday, it then failed to follow through on dovish FOMC Minutes. The rally stalled ahead of weekly resistance at 1.55. On Friday it followed the Euro lower but it still managed to close near previous week's close. Outlook now depends on incoming US data, but will need to convincingly break 1.55 to confirm bullish bias.

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WallStreet6 24 Feb.

This one is way off and doesn't seem it will get any closer. If it makes you feel better I was also betting on a retracement down south. But good analysis though.

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al_dcdemo 24 Feb.

Thanks! Probably we were not the only ones, as at that point it looked like momentum even accelerated.

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GBP/USD still has room to decline

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5515, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Retracement #Decline #Momentum Deceleration
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The momentum of the decline appears to have been decelerating somewhat. The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: The pair's huge decline was the greatest surprise of the first trading day of the year. It lost 250 pips on Friday, which is the biggest one day loss since May 2010. Again, thin liquidity considerations apply, so we will have to wait till next week for more evidence on whether this was just a blip or something more substantial.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair has well and truly busted the weekly support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) and traded down to almost 1.5. On Thursday it then turned the corner and was also well bid on Friday. It closed the week one cent above the lows of 1.5035. Especially if EUR/USD stages a correction in the days ahead of ECB meeting, further upside in the pair is quite likely.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: The pair set the stage nicely for a possible correction up to 1.55 but then stalled in 1.5250 - 1.5350 region. On Friday, in a bout of USD strength, it broke back down through 1.5150 and closed the week below the level. If it manages to hold above 1.5, there's still a chance of a rebound towards 1.55, especially if ECB doesn't satisfy the markets at the next week's meeting.

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USD/CAD uptrend still has legs

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.1772, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Trendline #USD/CAD #Correction #Retracement #Uptrend
Monthly chart:
Price is in uptrend since 2011 and is currently capped by 61.8% retracement of the March 2009 to July 2011 decline. The next strong resistance is the declining trendline drawn off 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2009 highs, before 76.4% retracement and 200 month SMA.
Weekly chart:
After strong rally since June 2014 and 1000 pips of gains, the pair will close the month and the year near highs. That points to further gains, with fundamentals (oil decline, dovish BOC, strong US) also in favor …
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: Similarly impressive as Cable's decline was the Loonie's surge on Friday. It rose more than 180 pips from the open, finally breaking the 61.8% retracement of the March 2009 to July 2011 decline in the process, and then closed on the highs. It hardly gets more bullish than this on the first trading day of the year (and Friday!).

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: After exceptionally bullish first day of the year, the pair corrected to the 38.2% retracement of the December 31 to January 02 upswing. It then proceeded with its ascent and made several new highs (last one on Friday), but in more sideways rather than trending price action. The next target appears to be 1.20 level.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: It was a volatile week for the pair, in which it broke 1.20 level, then traded down to 1.18 on a SNB day, then turned around and traded all the way back and to the new highs on Friday, but it didn't close the week above 1.20. If it manages to get and hold above 1.20 then the next strong resistance cluster is in 1.2200 - 1.2250 range and then there's 200 month SMA at 1.2325.

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USD/JPY to continue uptrend

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 122.1900, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Trendline #USD/JPY #Retracement #Uptrend #Resistance Zone #New Highs
Monthly chart:
Price is trending up towards strong resistance zone:
1. Trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998.
2. 23.6% retracement of November 1982 to October 2011 decline.
3. 2007 high at 124.14.
On the downside, the first major support is 200 month SMA and then 105 level.
Weekly chart:
After 625 pip correction, the pair appears to have re-established its uptrend and seems poised to continue to new highs in the new year and towards the monthly resistance lev…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: For the first trading day of the year and Friday at the same time, there was quite a lot of action in the pair. It climbed 100 pips from the open, then lost nearly all gains after weak ISM Manufacturing PMI, but the dip was quickly bought and the pair ended the day and the week near highs. That is consistent with the bullish bias, but we will know better next week when liquidity returns.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: Contrary to expectations of many participants the pair failed to advance above 120.75. It instead sold off to 118, traded back up to 120 and then on Friday it fell again and closed the week two cents lower around 118.40. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows is clearly visible, but it will have to break 118, which also corresponds to 50 day SMA, to signal that the larger decline is possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: Despite all the goings-on in the past week, the pair survived the bout of risk-off sentiment and managed to hold above 115.50 support zone. It was particularly strong on Friday, when it has recouped most losses and closed the week only 75 pips lower after being down more than 250. It goes into the next week on a positive note and any ECB easing measures should support the pair through JPY crosses.

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GBP/USD still has room to decline (resubmitted analysis)

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5543, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Trendline #Bottom #Downtrend
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend is approaching bottom of the longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the price in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
Weekly chart:
The monthly trendline, 76.4% retracement (of the of the July 2013 to July 2014 upswing) and 1.55 level will provide support zone (1.5250 - 1.5500) for the potential bottom, should the price continue to trend down.
Daily chart:
The chart shows trendline that capped upticks from July earlier this yea…
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al_dcdemo 6 Dec.

Update 1: After Friday's much better than expected NFP report the pair sold off to new lows and closed there. This implies new lows in the week ahead. But with year-end coming ever closer and recent price action looking like many players are buying into this pair, additional losses may not extend that much further.

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al_dcdemo 13 Dec.

Update 2: The pair manged to climb to the daily downtrend line, but wasn't able to close above it. It set itself nicely for a break higher, but more likely it will consolidate around these (or a bit lower) levels ahead of the FOMC next week. If we will get hawkish Fed, confirming that the rate rises are close, we may get decent sell-off and still end up around the target of 1.5543.

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al_dcdemo 20 Dec.

Update 3: The pair sold off after the FOMC and stopped the decline just two pips below my prediction target of 1.5543. Next day it made some ground back on much better than expected retail sales, but has finished the week on a weaker note. Even though staying in recent range (1.5550 - 1.5750) seems the most probable outcome, one final attempt at 1.55 for the year, is not excluded.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

Update 4: The pair has broken the 1.55 level, but has then retreated to close back above the big figure. It has closed the week right around my prediction target of 1.5543. It is very much possible that the following week will remain range-bound, so that's good starting point.

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al_dcdemo 1 Jan.

Update 5: The first three days of New Year holiday shortened week were quite lively, but the pair remained pretty much range-bound and ended up slightly above levels from last Friday. There was some strong EUR/GBP selling on Wednesday and, as EUR/USD, the cross closed the year on yearly lows. That lent some support to the Cable and we will see in next couple of days whether it will follow the Euro lower.

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