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NZD/USD to revisit bottom of the range

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Jan. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6275, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #Demand #NZD/USD #Trading Range #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Dovish Rbnz #Neutral Net Positioning
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The pair bottomed in August 2015 and has since been contained in a broad trading range between 0.60 and 0.70. It has spent most of the time in the u…
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al_dcdemo 9 Feb.

UPDATE 3: Quiet start to the week turned into carnage soon after European session got underway, led by stock market falls. The selling continued in North American session and, after a small consolidation, overnight. The greatest beneficiary of safe haven flows has unsurprisingly been the yen, while the euro and the franc have also benefited. Gold rose to the highest in eight months. Cable and commodity currencies lost to various degrees, not least as a consequence of cross pair selling.

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al_dcdemo 12 Feb.

UPDATE 4: Mostly owing to U.S. dollar weakness, Kiwi proved to be impressively resilient amid market turmoil. It is currently down on the week only against the lowest of low yielders: euro, yen and franc. Declining 2014 - 2015 trendline, reinforced by the broken September - December trendline and 200 DMA, remains the resistance level to watch. If it gives way, 0.69 - 0.70 will come into focus. 50 and 100 DMA are the immediate support levels ahead of 0.65 - 0.6550.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 5: FOMC Meeting Minutes, which were released yesterday evening, didn't provide us with anything new. Officials did acknowledge increased downside risks to inflation outlook stemming mostly from USD strength and oil weakness but didn't back away from rate hikes. Reaction to the release was muted. Price recorded a couple of small whipsaws before returning to what it was doing before - a pattern that is quite prevalent with these releases.

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al_dcdemo 20 Feb.

UPDATE 6: World stock and commodity markets stabilized somewhat along with an overall improvement in risk sentiment. Volatility in major currency pairs fell, particularly in commodity-linked ones. Kiwi ended the week not very far from the opening levels with a similarly unimpressive weekly range - barely over 100 pips. This is most likely just a temporary calm as global macroeconomic landscape remains very much the same.

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al_dcdemo 27 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Friday provided everything that dollar bulls want. Mostly better than expected readings on growth, inflation, income, spending and sentiment were enough to send the dollar higher against most major currencies and showed that March hike cannot be ruled out. Kiwi lost almost 100 pips on the day with the daily range more than 150 pips. It posted outside down day which may lead to more losses in the days ahead.

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Cable keeps gaining

al_dcdemo Updated 16 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fomc #Greece #Trading Range #Safe Haven Flows #Dip Buyers
Cable has been incredibly resilient lately and some of that may also be attributed to the safe haven flows due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece. It fell today on weaker than expected inflation report, but buyers were waiting in the dips and soon took the pair to new highs for the day, week and month.
Tomorrow is the FOMC day and the pair will likely remain in this upward grinding trading range at least until then. When it breaks, first stronger support may come in between 1.5450 and 1…
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NZD/USD defies gravity

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.8023, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Consolidation #NZD/USD #Bullish Bias #Decline #Trading Range #Higher Prices
Monthly chart:
Price is in a lower part of 2011 - 2014 trading range, which is a part of a long-term uptrend. Strong support on the downside is 100 month SMA around 0.75 and then 38.2% retracement of the March 2009 to August 2011 rally. On the upside, 20 and 50 month SMA should provide initial resistance.
Weekly chart:
After 12.5% decline in Q3 2014, the pair settled into 0.7600 - 0.8050 range. One of these two levels will need to be convincingly broken to provide direction for the next leg.
D…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: Kiwi was the only of the major pairs besides Yen, that hasn't broke to new lows on Friday. Despite that, it lost nearly a cent and closed right on the lows. It is now in the lower quarter of the 0.7600 - 0.8050 range, which increasingly appears more like a declining wedge.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: The pair was the best performing major currency this week. After it tested range support near 0.76 on Monday, it then reversed and traded back towards the other end of the range. It added more than two cents from the lows and closed the week on highs and above 50 day SMA. It will need to break and hold above 0.7850 to confirm bullish bias.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: Past week's action was another good performance for the pair, which continues to defy general US Dollar strength. Despite that it hasn't managed to beat the Dollar this week, it has successfully preserved most of its previous week's gains. It closed just below 50 day SMA which is gradually turning higher.  Either way it will break from this prolonged sideways congestion, it will likely determine mid-term direction.

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