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The dollar index has met a resistance at 93.8 in its downtrend and is likely to resume it this week. 92.6 is the support it has to break to continue further which is also a long term strong support. The daily MACD has crossed up, so it could be a range bound week.
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Continuation of Japanese Yen strength
Yen failed to break the resistance at 114.20 and has fallen back into the range of 111 and 114. With weakness of dollar index and doubt over next FOMC action, Yen is set to test 111 support base again. However, with a negative rate policy of japanese central bank, 110.5 would be difficult to break. Yen crosses like GBPJPY, CHFJPY are set to fall more than other yen crosses.
USD index view before March NFP
Today's NFP report is crucial for the 2016 year as the jobs report would decide whether FOMC would continue with their plan of interest rate hike further into 2016. Should the jobs number comes out less than expected, there is less than 50% chance FOMC would go ahead with rate hike. With that in place, Euro, Yen, Pound are set to rise from their current lows and might reverse the downtrend.
Euro has crucial support around 1.0850 ans is again set to test 1.1.
Euro crosses against weaker currencie…
Euro has crucial support around 1.0850 ans is again set to test 1.1.
Euro crosses against weaker currencie…
GBPCAD cross range trade
The GBPCAD cross has been range bound since Feb 2014 between 1.81 to 1.85
It had an initial surge at the beginning of the year with 1000 pips rise with GBP strength.
USDCAD is at an important trendline support on a daily chart and is expected to weaken due to USD strength and better than expected jobs report.
GBPUSD is quite strong in a upward channel and is expected to remain range bound or rise to 1.72-1.73
So, the GBPCAD cross is expected to bounce from the base of the trading range as shown…
AUD range play
The AUDUSD has been range bound for last 2 months after a ralley from 0.86
AUD has been ranging between 0.92 to 0.9450.
The AUD has rejected the level 0.94 again which is a significant weekly resistance.
The support seems to be now 0.92 and AUD would test it within a next week or two.
Also with recent jobs report, USD seems to be gaining ground.
The AUD crosses like EURAUD and GBPAUD look interesting in that they have also broken a resistance level and looking to shoot up.
The moves in crosses a…
AUD has been ranging between 0.92 to 0.9450.
The AUD has rejected the level 0.94 again which is a significant weekly resistance.
The support seems to be now 0.92 and AUD would test it within a next week or two.
Also with recent jobs report, USD seems to be gaining ground.
The AUD crosses like EURAUD and GBPAUD look interesting in that they have also broken a resistance level and looking to shoot up.
The moves in crosses a…
Anticipating USDJPY breakout
The USDJPY has been range bound in a tight range of 105 -100.5 since the beginning of the 2014 and half the year is already passed.
I am anticipating a breakout out of the descending traingle with a big trend developing in the remaining 6 months.
A monthly USDJPY chart is showing a very strong support-resistance at 101. 5 and thats why the pair has been testing that level so many times, but with each test the next bounce is getting smaller.
The breakout above 101.5 in december was quickly rever…
I am anticipating a breakout out of the descending traingle with a big trend developing in the remaining 6 months.
A monthly USDJPY chart is showing a very strong support-resistance at 101. 5 and thats why the pair has been testing that level so many times, but with each test the next bounce is getting smaller.
The breakout above 101.5 in december was quickly rever…
USDCAD at an important support
The USDCAD pair sits on an multiweek support-resistance.
Also, the uptrendline on daily chart is just broken on a closing basis, however the horizontal level seems intact.
The CAD strengthening was seemingly related to crude oil spike from Iraq crisis and may not last.
So USDCAD is expected to bounce from here towards 1.1 level again.
In case the crude rises further and CAD strenghthens, next support would only be at 1.0-0.8
The thursday NFP if positive would boost USD and cause USDCAD bounce.
T…
Also, the uptrendline on daily chart is just broken on a closing basis, however the horizontal level seems intact.
The CAD strengthening was seemingly related to crude oil spike from Iraq crisis and may not last.
So USDCAD is expected to bounce from here towards 1.1 level again.
In case the crude rises further and CAD strenghthens, next support would only be at 1.0-0.8
The thursday NFP if positive would boost USD and cause USDCAD bounce.
T…
The strong upward channel of GBP continues
The strong uptrend started in august 2013 from 1.5 continues in 2014 as well and now GBP sits at 1.71
The level 1.71 has been a previous weekly resistance and now GBP seems to have broken it and continues rising above that.
Lets have a look at the charts.
The upward trending channel started in late 2013 and GBP finds good demand every time it comes back to the base of the channel.
Now GBP seems to be testing the 1.71 weekly resistance and break into 1.8-1.9 territory.
As the Scotland vote nears…
The level 1.71 has been a previous weekly resistance and now GBP seems to have broken it and continues rising above that.
Lets have a look at the charts.
The upward trending channel started in late 2013 and GBP finds good demand every time it comes back to the base of the channel.
Now GBP seems to be testing the 1.71 weekly resistance and break into 1.8-1.9 territory.
As the Scotland vote nears…
CADJPY short setup
CADJPY pair has just broken a wedge to downside on a 4 hr chart and is a daily resistance level of 94.
The level of 94 has been a significant resistance for last 4 days.
CADJPY has been range bound in this week and has broken a wedge to downside.
The USDJPY has also started a retracement after a ralley for last 3 days.
CADJPY might touch 93 if data from Canada continues to be poor and JPY strengthens.
The NFP after 2 days would also mean risk aversion and JPY strengthening.
On a daily chart CADJ…
The level of 94 has been a significant resistance for last 4 days.
CADJPY has been range bound in this week and has broken a wedge to downside.
The USDJPY has also started a retracement after a ralley for last 3 days.
CADJPY might touch 93 if data from Canada continues to be poor and JPY strengthens.
The NFP after 2 days would also mean risk aversion and JPY strengthening.
On a daily chart CADJ…
EUR in make or break situation
EURUSD has formed a nice channel after its breakout from just below1.4 to downside with possible floor at 1.3580.
The channel is likely to break after the ECB rate decision. If ECB does not take action, then EURO will bounce to at least 1.3860.
The next 2 days would be interesting. Today, Euro just failed to break 1.3650, the top of the channel.
The retail positioning points to more short side till 1.3480-1.3520
However, ECB failing to reduce rates or continue LTROs will see euro bounce.
It woul…
The channel is likely to break after the ECB rate decision. If ECB does not take action, then EURO will bounce to at least 1.3860.
The next 2 days would be interesting. Today, Euro just failed to break 1.3650, the top of the channel.
The retail positioning points to more short side till 1.3480-1.3520
However, ECB failing to reduce rates or continue LTROs will see euro bounce.
It woul…