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This week is more tranquil comparing with the previous one. I expect that high bearish sentiment together with high CFTC volumes will lead to a consolidation of EUR/USD, GBP/USD. The first reversal signal should be shown on MACD h1, ADX h1, h4, then on Ichimoku h1. Though the opening and monday trading average rate can be lower then Friday's close price.
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Overview
GBP/USD and EUR/USD rebounded on Friday as was expected. Fundamental information was mixed - the unemployment rate and participation rate decreased and increased, respectively, which is good for USD, but nonfarm payrolls were lower than expected, which can be perceived as a slowing US growth momentum. Long term trend indicators show a strong bearish movement, which is supported by overall fundamental environment. However, in short term GBP/USD and EUR/USD can be oversold. At the moment short ter…
Day X - EURUSD, GBPUSD
Ok, old story by Mr. Draghi. Expected movement on south. I do not trade on major fundamental event days in live accounts, but probably I should start in this contest - you can't boost the performance by not trading. As I wrote on Monday, I still see the downside movement as limited due to high bearish sentiment. Thus, will wait for confirmation of reversal points. MACD h1, ADX h1-h4 can do the job.
GBP/USD - What was that?
Channeling for the last 2 days, GBP/USD declined sharply on more than 100 pips in the first part of the day. The interesting part is that the decline was not supported by any new fundamental information. Normally, one needs a good reason to go in any direction with that speed, but term 'normally' is not term 'always'. The decrease is rational, but who is selling before BOE on Thursday? One option is that a big player (e.g hedge fund) utilising lower than normal liquidity environment (because tra…
Tuesday GBP/USD, EUR/USD
While EUR/USD tries to brake bearish momentum its correlation partner GBP/USD continues to trade in a narrow channel. From my personal experience these two currency exchange rates like to move in tandem, and if one is moving in certain direction the other one will eventually start moving into the same direction. The question is whether EUR/USD will follow GBP/USD, or GBP/USD will follow EUR/USD. Fundamentally the background has not been changed. Technically the picture is neutral, either the bea…
EUR/USD, GBP/USD Thoughts
Fundamental Trends:
While global economies continue to steadily recover from economic recession, the growth momentum across countries is becoming more diverse. US are in transitionary phase between accommodative and contractionary monetary policies. FOMC, finishing QE last week, is thoroughly monitoring economic activity for any signs of weaknesses. The first increase in the interest rates is expected in May-June, assuming the economy will expand as predicted. UK as US, experience a gradual impr…
While global economies continue to steadily recover from economic recession, the growth momentum across countries is becoming more diverse. US are in transitionary phase between accommodative and contractionary monetary policies. FOMC, finishing QE last week, is thoroughly monitoring economic activity for any signs of weaknesses. The first increase in the interest rates is expected in May-June, assuming the economy will expand as predicted. UK as US, experience a gradual impr…