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FX - The Wild Wild West

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2015年05月02日  in #Trader's blog #Forex #GBP/AUD #EUR/AUD #Timing #Margin Call #UK Pmi
So, a new month has started and like a good champ I'm , I start to make plans and tell myself I'm going to take only the setups that fits my criteria. So far so good until I see a trade on GBP/AUD (see Figure 1)and I see a nice short opportunity, everything was pointing for a down move and I decide to short it.
What do you thing happens the first moment after my order got triggered? Yes you're right the market starts moving against me . But it's not moving slow and steady but instead it's postin…
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Alexthebest avatar
Alexthebest 2015年05月02日

: ........."WTF!!!! it's like the market knew all the time where my order was, but does she knew I was playing with virtual money LOL?"  :))))  com on give up: you have trade the same pos. in real too, I don´t tell to nobody I promise, if you said to me, right after that I order the funerary :))))))))))  -  a Little  joke :)) nu? :))))))))))))))))))))

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 2015年05月02日

Alexthebest LOL.......... I have no problem whatsoever to admit that I either took(or dint' took)that trade in my live account, but the truth is that I didn't. Actually there where many time when I came out in my blog and spoke about the losses I took in my life account, but this time it was not the case. However what happens in my live account is none of your business:)

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NZD/USD redistribution of time

scramble 投稿日: 2014年07月15日。分析予想通貨ペア:NZD/USD, 予想レート: 0.8770, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #NZD/USD #Analyzing Technics #Resitances #Price Behavior #Timing #Market Influence

Monthly chart shows a solid resistance at 0.8840, with an heavy crash in price followed by a multi-year consolidation. In the picture I also drawn a green horizontal which is better seen in next weekly chart.
As we can see, most recent lower high was going right @0.8080 and market had many problems finally break-it-out to reach the top. The overall move at the moment is quite soft if compared with the fast peak printed in 2011 which is suggesting there is not really the same strength.
Moving de…
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scramble avatar
scramble 2014年07月21日

The attached daily chart to show early moves in price, where an increasing bearish pressure sent price back sitting on monthly pivot area (red-dotted 0.8650). Nearest key support area is 0.8560-0.8620 around 50-61.8% fibo retrace where market could have soon the opportunity to find power for another attempt to the top resistance area 0.8840.

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scramble 2014年07月28日

Key support area reached and slightly broken with a move touching low in 0.8530. Price should stabilize around here for a while to gain the opportunity for another attempt to the upside which at the moment seems not a simple job. Hopefully next week things will appear better.

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scramble 2014年08月04日

market completely lost what I expected to be a support area showing a strong bearish pressure. At this point I can expect a pullback to reach somewhere near 0.8630-50 (red line in attached chart) but my expectations for end of contest price to be near 0.8770 are really ambitious at the moment. Will keep updating if something comes to change the scenario.

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scramble 2014年08月12日

Update: no changes in scenario! Price met with 100% fib retrace, erasing the whole most recent rise to top levels. At this point... the possibilities to see it back to 0.8770 in 2 weeks are almost 0. Anyway, the chart shows something interesting with price sitting on support with a possible trade opportunity.

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scramble 2014年08月19日

In daily chart price is still bouncing off the support on 100% retrace. interesting trade opportunity, but definetly my target is far away from reach within end of month.

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Trading Contest Performance Update

Daytrader21  in #Technical analysis #Trader's blog #Trader Contest #Carry Trade #Timing #Trading Performance
We're half way through this month Trader Contest and I was quite surprised to check out my trading performance that shows me that I've been trading EUR/AUD 60% out of all my trades (see Figure 1). The reason why I've been trading this pair was because I was expecting to see a breakout to the upside as I was expecting further AUD weakening. We where in a range so I keep scaling back my position as soon as the market retreated back. Although I was expecting further AUD weakening this doesn't m…
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EUR/USD Why I was long?

Daytrader21 投稿日: 2014年02月26日  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Timing #Perma Bear #Stop Hunting
Since beginning of the year I've been a perma bear on this pair but the recent price structure has made me change my mind and accept that my timing was wrong. I say "my timing" because I still see it falling but not just yet, for now we're in a big range and as major risk events happen around the world we will see this pair bouncing up and down. So because of this I've decided to play the market both ways and look for signs of topping pattern and only when the market dictate so onl…
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Time is the best Indicator

P3tr4 投稿日: 2014年02月11日  in #Trader's blog #Patience #Timing
Time is truly the best indicator. I am looking at the trader contest table and i am like.....
How did i miss all these moves!!..Folks are making 100s of thousands!!...
But i am trying not to get too excited and take hurried trading decisions. the thing to remember is that the market trends...But it does not last forever, markets move in cycles...Right now, the USD is weak....the AUD is strong...the yen is weak...the CHF is strong....This has been the case for a while...I am watching the next cyc…
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GBP/NZD EXPECT CONTINUATION UPWARD

scramble 投稿日: 2013年05月13日。分析予想通貨ペア:GBP/NZD, 予想レート: 1.8990, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Fibonacci #Month #GBP/NZD #Time #Timing #Quarter
In the first chart we see the cross has recently found a new 'all-time' low @1.770 (1) and during this current quarterly candle price is trading near previous main lows in the range between 1.850 and 1.860 (2) while the most recent support area was between 1.890 and 1.900 (3). See the picture: This current quarterly candle will close with the end of June. During this period of time, I expect price to rise more to reach the most recent (broken) lows (3) where will find some short term rej…
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Daytrader21 2013年05月13日

Nice analysis but I can't comment much as I'm not that much involved with this exotics pairs. Wish your forecast will come true.:)

scramble avatar
scramble 2013年05月22日

update: price failed to reach straight the 1.89 resistance but this doesn't invalidate my analysis. Today price tested monthly buy area 1.8440-70 showing a strong pullback straight > 1.86 suggesting the importance of the whole area as support. At this point the analysis is full valid and I will be looking for possible further consolidation in this range between 1.85 and 1.86 before a new impulse up to conquer higher resistace near 1.90.

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scramble 2013年05月22日

here's the link with updated daily chart:
http://i.imgur.com/wQnHuSU.png

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