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More of the Same in EUR/TRY

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/TRY, Target: 3.8730, Date: 1 von May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #Euro #EUR/TRY #Try #Range Bound #Timeframes #Turkish Lira #Congestion
The EUR/TRY looks set for more of the same. In order to explain why, let us first look at what transpired in this pair during March. We opened the month near the 3.8500 level as can be seen on the chart below.
From here we rallied all the way up to 4.0168, only to get sold aggressively in the next few days to a low of 3.8825. After a dead-cat bounce the move lower continued until finally we closed March at 3.8687, less then half-percent from the monthly open. The second chart below shows the pic…
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fxsurprise8 30 Apr.

The EUR/TRY opened the month of April at 3.8684. From here prices rallied to a high of 3.9909, only to fall to a low of 3.8472 by the middle of the month.

The month-end brought more volatility with prices trading as high as 3.9556 before falling back down. We are currently quoted at 3.8753, very close to the April open.

This is only 23 pips away from my forecasted price, so I expect to see a good result in this month's contest!

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Cable Back in Oversold Territory

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2781, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP #USD #GBP/USD #Us Dollar #Pound #Oversold #Stochastic #Average True Range #Timeframes
Cable is back in oversold territory. Let’s take a look at tour first chart below. Notice how on the daily chart the Stoch (5,3,3) dipped below the 20 figure. This is considered oversold in technical analysis. The climb back above the level confirms the ‘buy’ signal.
Our second chart below shows a similar oversold pattern but one that has run its course further then on the daily chart. Here the dip and climb back above the 20 level happened few bars ago.
I’m targeting 1.2781. This is right belo…
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EUR/JPY Uptrend Grinds to a Halt

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 123.151, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japan #Japanese Yen #Uptrend #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY uptrend grinded to a halt during December. The total monthly range (open to close) was only 185 pips. This compared with 609 pips during November. So there's a noticeable slowdown in the pace of the rally.
Then why am I predicting no change in January? Take a look at our next picture. On the lower timeframes we can see that the trend is already dead and prices are just swinging up and down with no clear direction.
I expect this range-bound behavior to continue so I'm placing my forec…
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EUR/JPY Overbought on Multiple Timeframes

fxsurprise8 Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on EUR/JPY, Target: 121.05, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #JPY #Euro #EUR/JPY #Japanese Yen #Overbought #Stochastic #Stoch #Timeframes #Single Currency
The EUR/JPY is overbought on most time-frames. The first picture below shows a daily chart. Notice how the Stochastic Oscillator traded above the 80 line and is now coming down. This is a classic overbought signal followed by a confirmation, the moving down back below the 80 line.
Exhibit number two shows us the situation on the 4 Hour chart. Here too the pair is flashing an overbought signal. The Stoch is printing a value of 91 right now. The pair is stretched to extreme levels.
Our final chart…
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fxsurprise8 28 Dec.

So far so good! After a long post-election rally the EUR/JPY has traded mostly range-bound during December. Looks like all those overbought signals are finally having an effect.

The high to low range is now at 539 pips, with a high at 124.09 and a low at 118.70. But most important, the open to close range is tiny at only 48 pips.

We are currently quoted at 122.01 in the EUR/JPY, only 94 pips or 0.77 percent above my forecasted price. Here's to hoping for a small drop into month-end!

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EUR/SEK Nearing Resistance Cluster

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on EUR/SEK, Target: 9.5511, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR #SEK #Resistance #Sweden #Levels #EUR/SEK #Timeframes #Swedish Krona
The EUR/SEK is again nearing a resistance cluster. On the chart below we can see all the different times this area has been tested in the past. Once at 9.72 then at 9.68 then at 9.67 then at 9.61 and finally at 9.60. But while the exact level of the bounce varied, in each of those instances the bulls were repelled.
On the lower timeframe we can see a similar range-bound scenaro playing out. All summer we've stayed in this range albeit with some bullish bias. I think this bullish bias will limit …
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

Prices have again been repelled at the resistance cluster noted in my original post above. On September 26th the bulls bid up the pair to a high of 9.6654 but here the sellers took charge again.

The slight bullish bias persists but the existence of that resistance area is doing a good job at containing prices.

We are currently quoted at 9.6102, about 0.63% away from my target. I will need this retracement from the highs to continue a little bit longer in order to snag a position near the top.



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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

The EUR/SEK is slowly moving but in the wrong direction. Today we opened at 9.6159 and after a brief spike lower to 9.6038 the pair has rallied higher a bit.

We're now quoted at 9.6339, about 0.87% away from my forecast. The pressure from the resistance area close-by should help to keep a lid on prices. And what doesn't go up, has to come down eventually. At least that's the plan.

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fxsurprise8 3 Oct.

The slow rally in EUR/SEK continues. We opened the week at 9.6293 but quickly rallied from here to a high of 9.6436. We're currently quoted just slightly below the highs at 9.6408.

This price is now close to 1% away from my 9.5511 forecasted price. Prices are now deep inside the 9.61-9.71 resistance area. We can only hope for a sharp rejection here followed by a quick retracement of the gains.

But with only one half session remaining tomorrow, odds look bleak for a high prize placement this month.

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